河流相储层构型研究新理论、新方法——海上油田河流相复合砂体构型概念、内容及表征方法

基于陆上油田密井网的河流相储层构型研究,经过数十年积累,理论基础及表征方法已比较成熟,然而,将其应用于海上油田稀疏井网条件时,依然面临较大的挑战。笔者团队经过多年探索,基于海上油田开发地质研究方法,形成了井震结合、以"复合砂体"为核心的海上河流相复合砂体构型理论与表征方法,其特点在于运用三维原型建模、地震构型相预测及地震驱动确定性建模等技术,重点表征影响海上油田开发的五、六、七级构型单元(复合河道带、单一河道带、复合点坝),针对开发阶段的小层细分对比及不连续渗流屏障刻画等方面具有明显的优势。目前,应用这套理论及方法开展精细地质建模和数值模拟依然存在挑战,需要进一步发挥地震资料作用并探索人工智能的地震解释新途径。     

降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流影响的定量研究

定量分析汾河径流锐减的形成原因是汾河流域水资源可持续利用与管理中迫切需要解决的问题。本项研究首先采用降水-径流双累积曲线对汾河流域产流条件演变过程进行了两个时期的划分;然后采用距平百分比法对汾河流域年降水系列进行了丰枯状态划分,并建立了汾河河津站年径流量与当年降水量、上一年降水量之间的多元动态回归模型;并运用该模型定量分析了降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流的影响程度。结果表明：在1956-1973年间的产流条件下,降水变化使得河津站年均径流量平均减少约22.71%;在1974-2008年间的产流条件下,降水变化使得河津站年均径流量在平、枯两种年份平均减少了约18.95%;在1956-1973年间的年降水为平水或枯水条件下,产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约47.11%;在1974-2008年间的降水条件下,产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约55.20%。     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

Energy Buildup,Flux Confinement and Helicity Accumulation in the Solar Corona

Starting from a dipole field and a given distribution of footpoint displace- ment of field lines on the photosphere,we find axisymmetric,force-free field solutions in spherical coordinates that have the same distribution of normal field on the photo- sphere and magnetic topology as the dipole field.A photospheric shear is introduced in the azimuthal direction in a region that strides across the equator and ends at latitude γ_s.The footpoint displacement has a sine distribution in latitude and a peak amplitude of (?)_m.The magnetic energy E,azimuthal flux F_(?),and magnetic helicity H_T in the solar corona are then calculated for each force-free field solution.It is found that for a given shear region range γ_s,all of the three quantities increase monotoni- cally with increasing (?)_m.In particular,both F_(?) and H_T have a linear dependence on (?)m.When (?)_m reaches a certain critical value (?)_(mc),the force-free field loses equilib- rium,leading to a partial opening of the field and the appearance of a current sheet in the equatorial plane.At this point,E,F_(?)and H_T reach their maximum values, E_c,F_((?)c) and H_(Tc).E_c increases,and F_((?)c) and H_(Tc)decrease with decreasing λ_s.It is found that E_c is always smaller than the open field energy,in agreement with the Aly conjecture.Of the three critical parameters,E_c has the weakest dependence on λ_s.Therefore,if one is interested in the transition of a magnetic configuration from a stable state to a dynamic one,the magnetic energy is probably the most appropriate marker of the transition.     

对多分量地震资料P-和SV-波场分解

在多分量地震勘探资料中,水平和垂直分量都记录有P波和SV波。本文研究了P波和SV波波场分解的方法。当上行P波和S波分别入射时,通过研究它们引起的水平和垂直位移,把地震记录的水平和垂直分量进行分解,得到纵波和转换波;在已知海底介质中纵横波速度和介质密度的情况下,可以在τ-P域内实现波场分解,然后变换到时间域,得到时间域内的纵波和转换波剖面。把本文研究的波场分解方法应用于合成资料,能够有效地分解得到纵波波场和转换波波场。最后,海上多分量实际资料的实例应用表明,本文研究的波场分解方法是可行有效的。本方法也适用于自由表面的资料。     

THE TECTONIC ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF AWANCANG FAULT IN THE LATE QUATERNARY,THE SUB-STRAND OF THE EASTERN KUNLUN FAULT

It is well known that the slip rate of Kunlun Fault descends at the east segment, but little known about the Awancang Fault and its role in strain partitioning with Kunlun Fault. Whether the sub-strand(Awancang Fault) can rupture simultaneously with Kunlun Fault remains unknown. Based on field investigations, aerial-photo morphological analysis, topographic surveys and ¹⁴C dating of alluvial surfaces, we used displaced terrace risers to estimate geological slip rates along the Awancang Fault, which lies on the western margin of the Ruoergai Basin and the eastern edge of the Tibetan plateau, the results indicate that the slip rate is 3mm/a in the middle Holocene, similar to the reduced value of the Kunlun Fault. The fault consists of two segments with strike N50° W, located at distance about 16km, and converged to single stand to the SE direction. Our results demonstrate that the Awancang fault zone is predominantly left-lateral with a small amount of northeast-verging thrust component. The slip rates decrease sharply about 4mm/a from west to east between the intersection zone of the Awancang Fault and Kunlun Fault. Together with our previous trenching results on the Kunlun Fault, the comparison with slip rates at the Kunlun fault zone suggests that the Awancang fault zone has an important role in strain partitioning for east extension of Kunlun Fault in eastern Tibet. At the same time, the 15km long surface rupture zone of the southeast segment was found at the Awancang Fault. By dating the latest faulted geomorphologic surface, the last event may be since the 1766±54 Cal a BP. Through analysis of the trench, there are four paleoearthquake events identified recurring in situ on the Awancang Fault and the latest event is since (850±30)a BP. The slip rate of the Awancang Fault is almost equivalent to the descending value of the eastern part of the east Kunlun Fault, which can well explain the slip rate decreasing of the eastern part of the east Kunlun Fault(the Maqin-Maqu segment)and the characteristics of the structure dynamics of the eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The falling slip rate gradient of the eastern Kunlun Fault corresponds to the geometric characteristic. It is the Awancang Fault, the strand of the East Kunlun Fault that accommodates the strain distribution of the eastward extension of the east Kunlun Fault. This study is helpful to seismic hazard assessment and understanding the deformation mechanism in eastern Tibet.     

CMIP5模式对中国近海海表温度的模拟及预估

基于观测和再分析资料;利用多种指标和方法评估了国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）中21个模式对中国近海海温的月、季节和年际变化模拟能力。多模式集合能够再现气候平均意义下近海海温的空间分布特征;但量值上存在一定的低估。在渤海和黄海;集合平均与观测差别比较明显。在年际尺度上;与观测数据对比;模式模拟海温与Niño3指数相关性较小。中国近海海表面温度在1960-2002年有明显的升高趋势;从2003年开始增温趋缓。评估结果表明;ACCESS1.0、BCC-CSM1.1、HadGEM2-ES、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM、FGOALS-g2、CNRM-CM5-2、INMCM4八个模式对中国近海海温的变化有较好的模拟能力。利用ACCESS1.0、INMCM4、BCC-CSM1.1、IPSL-CM5A-MR、CMCC-CM这5个模式结果对中国近海海温未来的变化进行了预估。在RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下;未来近100年中国近海海温有明显升高趋势;最优模式多模式集合平均增温分别可达到1.5℃、3.3℃;净热通量变化和平流变化共同促进了东海升温。     

A primary study of the variations of vertical radiation with the Beijing 325-m Meteorological Tower

The Beijing 325-m Meteorological Tower (325MT) is used to observe the vertical variation of solar radiation. Results of the experiments indicate that the automatic radiation monitoring system, including a sun tracker and data collection system, works well and all the specifications meet WMO observation standards. The measurement data show that there is a significant radiation decrease from 320m to the surface, where the difference is only about 30Wm^-2 on light air-pollution days, while the maximum reaches about 110Wm^-2 when heavy pollution appears near the ground. The global UV radiation decreases on heavy air-pollution days and under poor visibility conditions, and the difference between 300m and 8m is larger than on clear days.     

非静力中尺度模式的现状及发展趋势

随着高性能计算机与大气探测技术的发展 ,使得非静力中尺度数值预报模式的业务化成为可能 ,世界上主要的气象中心最近几年纷纷发展非静力中尺度模式 ,并取得了重要进展 ,这其中尤以英国气象局新发展的非静力通用模式最为突出。基于此 ,介绍了近年来国际上发达国家的非静力中尺度预报模式的现状及发展方向 ,并对该类模式设计中应注意的一些问题进行了阐述     

河西走廊最近一次强沙尘暴的调查分析

1996年5月29~31日在甘肃河西走廊又出现了一次强沙尘暴天气。从这次强沙尘暴和1993年"5·5"强沙尘暴的比较分析可知,春季在河西走廊周围易形成以沙漠为中心的高温低压区,与西西伯利亚向东南方向移动的高压冷气流形成明显的气压梯度,这就是大风的动力源。大风前期,在气温、压温比等方面有明显的预兆,由此可进行强沙尘暴的预测预报。