Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.     

Large-scale farming as a cultural dilemma in U.S. rural development— The role of capital

Although agressive economic traditions have benefited U.S. agricultural fortunes enormously in the past, expanding farming scale now also seriously threatens equally-prized rural traditions extolling the values of family farming. To see in detail how strongly and in what ways large-scale farming is exerting its influence across the nation, a multivariate model was applied to county census data. Emphasized were forces of capital accumulation rather than traditional single criteria like farm size or incorporation. Results uniformly dispute the argument for continued vigor of the family farm. Smaller operators are not only disadvantaged in all production factors, but also are no longer protected by such traditional recourses as labor intensification and production efficiency. Far more farmers are also subjected to large-scale farming pressures well beyond the “factory farm” areas, and in several places to pressures as intense. One of these centers is the Western Corn Belt, a bastion of both technology and rural tradition, and thus quite possibly the place where the foremost dilemma in American agriculture is finally resolved.     

Active region magnetic fields

The tilt angles of sunspot groups are defined, using the Mount Wilson data set. It is shown that groups with tilt angles greater than or less than the average value (≈ 5 deg) show different latitude dependences. This effect is also seen in synoptic magnetic field data defining plages. The fraction of the total sunspot group area that is found in the leading spots is discussed as a parameter that can be useful in studying the dynamics of sunspot groups. This parameter is larger for low tilt angles, and small for extreme tilt angles in either direction. The daily variations of sunspot group tilt angles are discussed. The result that sunspot tilt angles tend to rotate toward the average value is reviewed. It is suggested that at some depth, perhaps 50 Mm, there is a flow relative to the surface that results from a rotation rate faster than the surface rate by about 60 m/sec and a meridional drift that is slower than the surface rate by about 5 m/sec. This results in a slanted relative flow at that depth that is in the direction of the average tilt angle and may be responsible for the tendency for sunspot groups (and plages) to rotate their magnetic axes in the direction of the average tilt angle.     

Remote spectroscopic identification of carbonaceous chondrite mineralogies: Applications to Ceres and Pallas

High-resolution spectroscopic observations of asteroids Ceres and Pallas have been obtained in the 1.0- to 2.6-μm region. Combined with previous spectralmeasurements at other wavelengths, this work presents the broadband spectral reflectances of these asteroids over the 0.4 to 3.6-um region. This extended coverage permits new analyses of the surface mineralogies of these objects. Using laboratory comparison spectra of meteorites and mixtures of terrestrial minerals, the surfaces of Ceres and Pallas are consistent with mixtures of opaques and hydrated silicates, such as are found in types C1 and C2 meteorites. This research emphasizes the importance of the 3-um spectral region for studying by remote methods the relationship of carbonaceous chondrite mineralogies to asteroid surfaces.     

Transient brightenings of interconnecting loops

We study sudden brightenings of coronal loops that interconnect active regions. Such brightenings often occur within one or two days after the birth of a new interconnecting loop, as well as in some old interconnections. The brightenings of young loops are obviously associated with the emergence of new magnetic flux near their footpoints, whereas some enhancements of old loops may be triggered by slowly moving disturbances propagating from other centers of activity. A few loop brightenings are associated with flares, but the loop does not brighten in consequence of energy supply from the flare. Both the flare and the loop brightening are independent consequences of one common agent, presumably newly emerging flux.Temperatures in brightened loops are between 3 and 4 × 10⁶ K and densities are < 2 × 10⁹ cm^–3, probably < 5 × 10⁸ cm^–3 in some old loops. The top part of a loop is the site of the most intense brightening in the initial phase of a loop enhancement. The most frequent lifetime of these brightenings is 6 to 7 hr.Hale Observatories are operated jointly by the Carnegie Institution of Washington and the California Institute of Technology.     

Solar velocity fields: 5-min oscillations and supergranulation

One dimensional magnetograph scans have been used to study the 5-min photospheric velocity oscillations and the supergranulation. The oscillations in wing brightness lead the oscillations in velocity by less than 90° in the photosphere, and about 90° in the chromosphere, suggesting that they are traveling waves at lower levels and standing waves at higher levels. Downward flows have been observed to be coincident with the chromospheric network confirming the hypothesis that material is flowing downward at supergranular boundaries.     

Nature,origin and evolution of a Late Pleistocene incised valley‐fill,Sunda Shelf,Southeast Asia

Understanding the stratigraphic fill and reconstructing the palaeo‐hydrology of incised valleys can help to constrain those factors that controlled their origin, evolution and regional significance. This condition is addressed through the analysis of a large (up to 18 km wide by 80 m deep) and exceptionally well‐imaged Late Pleistocene incised valley from the Sunda Shelf (South China Sea) based on shallow three‐dimensional seismic data from a large (11 500 km²), ‘merge’ survey, supplemented with site survey data (boreholes and seismic). This approach has enabled the characterization of the planform geometry, cross‐sectional area and internal stratigraphic architecture, which together allow reconstruction of the palaeo‐hydrology. The valley‐fill displays five notable stratigraphic features: (i) it is considerably larger than other seismically resolvable channel forms and can be traced for at least 180 km along its length; (ii) it is located in the axial part of the Malay Basin; (iii) the youngest part of the valley‐fill is dominated by a large (600 m wide and 23 m deep), high‐sinuosity channel, with well‐developed lateral accretion surfaces; (iv) the immediately adjacent interfluves contain much smaller, dendritic channel systems, which resemble tributaries that drained into the larger incised valley system; and (v) a ca 16 m thick, shell‐bearing, Holocene clay caps the valley‐fill. The dimension, basin location and palaeo‐hydrology of this incised valley leads to the conclusion that it represents the trunk river, which flowed along the length of the Malay Basin; it connected the Gulf of Thailand in the north with the South China Sea in the south‐east. The length of the river system (>1200 km long) enables examination of the upstream to downstream controls on the evolution of the incised valley, including sea‐level, climate and tectonics. The valley size, orientation and palaeo‐hydrology suggest close interaction between the regional tectonic framework, low‐angle shelf physiography and a humid‐tropical climatic setting.     

Comparison between measured and modelled cloudless‐sky solar irradiances at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere

Abstract

Cloudless‐sky solar fluxes calculated by the radiative transfer algorithm used in the Canadian Climate Centre's general circulation climate model are compared with measurements of upwelling radiation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) and downwelling radiation at the surface. The 12‐layer model partitions the solar spectrum into two broad wavebands (0.25–0.68 and 0.68–4.00 μm). The comparison utilized TOA fluxes estimated from Nimbus‐ 7 measurements and measured downwelling fluxes at the surface for Kalgoorlie, West Australia, and downwelling fluxes at the surface for Woodbridge, Ontario. Model estimates and measurements agreed to within experimental error for most solar zenith angles. Estimates improved, especially at Woodbridge, when aerosol effects were included. The mean bias error was less than 4% for surface irradiance and less than 6% for upwelling TOA irradiance, which produces a TOA albedo error of about 0.01.     

Surface history of some Apollo 17 lunar soils

Cosmic ray track densities in Apollo 17 soil samples are used to infer surface exposure times of soils from a trench at Van Serg Crater, from on and near a boulder at Camelot Crater, and from the position of the heat flow and neutron flux experiments (the ALSEP site). The topmost 2 cm of soil at Van Serg was exposed for 11 m.y., the top cm at Camelot for 36 m.y. A layering chronology and average deposition rate are proposed for the trench. For all soils the median track densities imply predispositional irradiation in the top 15 cm of the lunar surface for times that were long compared with the actual residence in the stratigraphic positions from which the soils were collected. Van Serg crater is inferred to have been formed approximately 24 m.y. ago.     

The Quaternary history of the Wash fluvial network, UK

This paper appraises and compares the Middle-Upper Pleistocene sedimentary sequences preserved in the fluvial systems draining into the Fenland Basin and the Wash estuary. Of the main Fenland rivers the longest records, which extend back to the initial Anglian (glacial) formation of the basin, are found in the Great Ouse and its tributaries, particularly the Cam and the Nar. These sequences preserve sediments representing all four post-Anglian interglacials. The Nene also has an extensive post-Anglian history, with evidence for a Hoxnian estuary that is presumed to have been the precursor of the Wash. North of the Nene, however, the Welland and Witham (proto-Trent) have relatively short sequences, which are thought to commence with a later (post-Anglian-pre-Devensian) glaciation that affected Lincolnshire and fed the previously-recognized Tottenhill outwash delta south of Kings Lynn. Prior to Devensian deglaciation the Witham valley was occupied by the Trent, which was the trunk river of the late Middle Pleistocene Wash system. During periods of low sea level the river would have extended north-eastwards across what is now the floor of the North Sea, possibly via the Inner Silver Pit. Several of the central Fenland sequences show evidence of infrequent terrace formation during the late Quaternary, although this might in part be due to poor vertical separation between terraces, so that differentiating them has been difficult; this has been exacerbated by mixed biostratigraphical signals due to the preservation of sediments representing more than one interglacial beneath a single terrace surface. In several of the systems there is evidence for valley rejuvenation to the lowest terrace or valley-floor level during the MIS 4-3 transition. The observed differences within what, during the predominant periods of lower sea level, would have been a single Wash river system are difficult to explain.