A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction

There are two main approaches for dealing with model biases in forecasts made with initialized climate models. In full-field initialization, model biases are removed during the assimilation process by constraining the model to be close to observations. Forecasts drift back towards the model’s preferred state, thereby re-establishing biases which are then removed with an a posterior lead-time dependent correction diagnosed from a set of historical tests (hindcasts). In anomaly initialization, the model is constrained by observed anomalies and deviates from its preferred climatology only by the observed variability. In theory, the forecasts do not drift, and biases may be removed based on the difference between observations and independent model simulations of a given period. Both approaches are currently in use, but their relative merits are unclear. Here we compare the skill of each approach in comprehensive decadal hindcasts starting each year from 1960 to 2009, made using the Met Office decadal prediction system. Both approaches are more skilful than climatology in most regions for temperature and some regions for precipitation. On seasonal timescales, full-field initialized hindcasts of regional temperature and precipitation are significantly more skilful on average than anomaly initialized hindcasts. Teleconnections associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation are stronger with the full-field approach, providing a physical basis for the improved precipitation skill. Differences in skill on multi-year timescales are generally not significant. However, anomaly initialization provides a better estimate of forecast skill from a limited hindcast set.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

The use of mycorrhiza for eco‐engineering measures in steep alpine environments: effects on soil aggregate formation and fine‐root development

Steep erosion‐prone and vegetation‐free slopes are widespread in alpine areas and are often discussed since they have a high socio‐economic damage potential. We present an eco‐engineering approach to test whether a mycorrhizal inoculum improves the establishment of hedge brush layers and in turn soil structural stability on a steep, coarse‐grained vegetation‐free slope in the eastern Swiss Alps. We established (i) mycorrhizal and (ii) non‐mycorrhizal treated eco‐engineered research plots on a field experimental scale, covering a total area of approximately 1000 m² on an east‐northeast (ENE) exposed slope, where many environmental parameters can be regarded as homogeneous. After a full vegetation period, we quantified soil aggregate stability, the formation of water stable aggregates and the fine‐root development. Our results illustrate that the establishment of brush layers without mycorrhizal inoculum increased aggregate stability significantly. Against our expectation and glasshouse experiments, the addition of mycorrhizal inoculum did not have a statistically significant effect after one vegetation period although it tended to increase aggregate stability. Analogously, root length density (RLD) tended to be higher at the non‐mycorrhizal treated site. Aggregate stability was significantly correlated with RLD. Studies on a bigger field experimental scale are inevitable, complement glasshouse studies and lead to a better understanding for a successful application of sustainable eco‐engineering measures in alpine environments. Based on our results and considering the fact that the response time in natural ecosystems may be slower than in laboratory approaches, we conclude that long‐term field studies are necessary to validate results gained through laboratory experiments. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Simplified Analytical Procedure for the Determination of Organically Bound Halogens in Salt‐containing Water Samples

A method was developed for the determination of organic halogens in water samples with the aim of minimizing matrix effects and simplifying the sample preparation technique commonly used. The method is based on the adsorption of organic halogens in modified hydrophilic divinylbenzene polymer columns and their elution with methanol. The adsorbent used enables rapid adsorption and desorption due to comparatively high operating flow rates and minimized solvent amounts. Furthermore, no additional reconcentration steps are needed. The methanol extract obtained is combusted with a standard EOX (extractable organic halogen) analyzer and the concentration of organically bound halogens is determined by microcoulometric analysis. The matrix effects are considerably reduced compared to the standard procedure (EN 1485) commonly used. A detection limit of 13 μg/L was established.     

Evaluation of Combined Direct-Push Methods Used for Aquifer Model Generation

Most established methods to characterize aquifer structure and hydraulic conductivities of hydrostratigraphical units are not capable of delivering sufficient information in the spatial resolution that is desired for sophisticated numerical contaminant transport modeling and adapted remediation design. With hydraulic investigation methods based on the direct-push (DP) technology such as DP slug tests, DP injection logging, and the hydraulic profiling tool, it is possible to rapidly delineate hydrogeological structures and estimate their hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers without the need for wells. A combined application of these tools was used for the investigation of a contaminated German refinery site and for the setup of hydraulic aquifer models. The quality of DP investigation and the models was evaluated by comparisons of tracer transport simulations using these models and measured breakthroughs of two natural gradient tracer tests. Model scenarios considering the information of all tools together showed good reproduction of the measured breakthroughs, indicating the suitability of the approach and a minor impact of potential technical limitations. Using the DP slug tests alone yielded significantly higher deviations for the determined hydraulic conductivities compared to considering two or three of the tools. Realistic aquifer models developed on basis of such combined DP investigation approaches can help optimize remediation concepts or identify flow regimes for aquifers with a complex structure.     

Microfabrics of calcite ultramylonites as records of coaxial and non-coaxial deformation kinematics: Examples from the Rocher de l'Yret shear zone (Western Alps)

Microfabrics were analysed in calcite mylonites from the rim of the Pelvoux massif (Western Alps, France). WNW-directed emplacement of the internal Penninic units onto the Dauphinois domain produced intense deformation of an Eocene-age nummulitic limestone under lower anchizone metamorphic conditions (slightly below 300 °C). Two types of microfabrics developed primarily by dislocation creep accompanied by dynamic recrystallisation in the absence of twinning. Coaxial kinematics are inferred for samples exhibiting grain shape fabrics and textures with orthorhombic symmetry. Their texture (crystallographic preferred orientation, CPO) is characterised by two c-axis maxima, symmetrically oriented at 15° from the normal to the macroscopic foliation. Non-coaxial deformation is evident in samples with monoclinic shape fabrics and textures characterised by a single oblique c-axis maximum tilted with the sense of shear by about 15°. From the analysis of suitably oriented slip systems for the main texture components under given kinematics it is inferred that the orthorhombic textures, which developed in coaxial kinematics, favour activity of <10–11> and <02–21> slip along the f and r planes, respectively, with minor contributions of basal-<a> slip. In contrast, the monoclinic textures, which developed during simple shear, are most suited for duplex <a> slip along the basal plane. The transition between the dominating slip systems for the orthorhombic and monoclinic microfabrics is interpreted to be due to the effects of dynamic recrystallisation upon texture development. Since oblique c-axis maxima documented in the literature are most often rotated not with but against the shear sense, calcite textures alone should not be used as unequivocal shear sense indicators, but need to be complemented by microstructural criteria such as shape preferred orientations, grain size estimates and amount of twinning.     

Lake Kivu: structure,chemistry and biology of an East African rift lake

Geophysical, geochemical and biological data are integrated to unravel the origin and evolution of an unusual rift lake. The northern basin of Lake Kivu contains about 0.5 km of sediments which overlie a basement believed to be crystalline rocks of Precambrian age. Volcanic rocks at the northern end of the lake have created large magnetic anomalies of up to 300. Heat flow varies from 0.4 to 4 hfu. The extreme variability may be due in part to sedimentation or recent changes in the temperature of the bottom water. Sharp boundaries in the vertical temperature and salinity structure of the water across the lake can best be explained as separate convecting layers. Such convecting cells are the result of the increase in both temperature and salinity with depth.Concentrations of the major dissolved gases in the deep water, CO₂ and CH₄, approach saturation but do not exceed it at any depth. The salts are supplied mainly by hydrothermal discharges at the bottom of the lake which we calculate to have a salinity of 4 which is about 60% higher than the salinity of the bottom water. The annual discharge at the present time is about 0.5 km³. Zinc anomalies in the water are explained by the accumulation of sphalerite-containing globules at certain depths.Stratigraphic correlation of sediments is possible across the entire lake, based on physical, geochemical and paleontological criteria. Sedimentation rates are of the order of 30 cm/1000 years implying a Pliocene age for the deepest part of the lake. Periods of hydrothermal activities and heightened volcanism, as recorded in the sediments, appear to have coincided with pluvial times.Enrichment of the surface waters of Lake Kivu by nutrients has led to explosive speciation in the diatom genusNitzschia. Several new types of methane oxidizing and-producing bacteria were isolated. Bacterial degradation of recent plankton appears insufficient to explain the amount of methane in the lake, and some of it is derived diagenetically.

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Zusammenfassung Geophysikalische, geochemische und biologische Daten werden vorgelegt und miteinander in Beziehung gebracht, um einen besseren Einblick in Entstehung und Evolution eines ungewöhnlichen Sees zu gewinnen. Das nördliche Becken des Kivu-Sees enthält Sedimente von etwa 0,5 km Mächtigkeit, die dem präkambrischen kristallinen Grundgebirge überlagert sind. Die im Norden des Sees vorliegenden vulkanischen Gesteine erklären die hohen magnetischen Anomalien, die bis zu 300 betragen. Der Wärmefluß schwankt zwischen 0,4 und 4 cal/cm²/sec. Diese Schwankungsbreite erklärt sich zum Teil aus den Sedimentationsverhältnissen oder den lokalen Temperaturveränderungen im Tiefenwasser. Scharfe Grenzflächen in der vertikalen Temperatur- und Salinitätsstruktur des Wassers über den Gesamtsee sind das Ergebnis von Konvektion, die zu übereinanderliegenden Konvektionszellen führt, in denen jeweils Temperatur und Salinität konstant sind. Die Bildung, Anzahl und Stabilität solcher Zellen hängt von dem Verhältnis der durch Temperatur und Salzgehalt hervorgerufenen Dichteveränderungen ab.Die Konzentrationen der im Tiefenwasser gelösten Gase, d. h. von Kohlendioxyd und Methan, liegen für alle Tiefen unterhalb der Löslichkeit. Die vorliegenden Salze entstammen weitgehend hydrothermalen Lösungen, die dem Seeboden entweichen und deren Salinität etwa 4 beträgt; der Vergleichswert für das Tiefenwasser beträgt 2,5 Diese hydrothermalen Ausschüttungen haben eine Größe von etwa 0,5 km³ pro Jahr, was etwa ein Tausendstel des Gesamtseevolumens ausmacht. Zinkanomalien im Wasser sind ebenfalls hydrothermal bedingt.Physikalische, geochemische und paläontologische Indikatoren erlauben eine stratigraphische Korrelation aller Sedimentkerne. Die Sedimentationsraten liegen bei 30 cm/ 1000 Jahren, und ein pliozänes Alter errechnet sich daraus für das tiefe nördliche Becken. Perioden hydrothermaler Aktivitäten und verstärkter vulkanischer Tätigkeit, die sich in den Sedimenten nachweisen lassen, scheinen mit Pluvialzeiten zu koinzidieren.Die Anreicherung der Oberflächenwässer vom Kivusee durch Mineralstoffe führte zu einer explosionsartigen Spezisierung in der GattungNitzschia. Verschiedene neue Arten von Methan-oxidierenden und -produzierenden Bakterien wurden isoliert. Das Auftreten von Methan ist zum Teil bakteriell und zum Teil diagenetisch bedingt.

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Résumé Des données géophysiques, géochimiques et biologiques sont présentées et collationnées pour donner une vue meilleure sur l'origine et l'évolution d'un lac particulier de la «Rift valley». La baie septentrionale du lac Kivu contient environ 500 mètres de sédiments qui recouvrent le socle cristallin d'âge précambrien. Des épanchements volcaniques au Nord du lac expliquent les fortes anomalies magnétiques qui atteignent 300. Les valeurs du flux thermique varient entre 0.4 et 4 cal/cm²/sec. Cette importante variation s'explique en partie par la sédimentation ou par des changements locaux de la température de l'eau de fond. Des surfaces-limites brusques dans la structure verticale de la répartition de la température et de la salinité de l'eau dans l'étendue du lac sont dûs à la convection; celle-ci conduit à la superposition de cellules de convection dans lesquelles la température et la salinité sont constantes. La formation, le nombre et la stabilité de telles cellules dépendent du rapport des variations de densité dues à la température et à la teneur en sels.Les concentrations des gaz dissouts dans l'eau profonde, en l'occurrence CO₂ et CH₄, sont, à toute profondeur, inférieures à la saturation. Les sels minéraux proviennent surtout de solutions hydrothermales qui émanent du fond du lac, et dont la salinité est voisine de 4; la valeur comparative pour l'eau profonde est de 2,5. L'apport annuel de ces sources est de l'ordre de 0,5 km³, soit 1/1000 du volume total du lac. Les teneurs anormales en Zn sont dues également à ce caractère hydrothermal.Des données physiques, géochemiques et paléontologiques permettent la corrélation stratigraphique des sédiments. Les vitesses de sédimentation sont de l'ordre de 30 cm/1000 ans, donnant ainsi un âge pliocène pour la partie profonde de la baie septentrionale. Les périodes d'activité hydrothermale et de renforcement de la vulcanicité qui se manifestent dans les sédiments, semblent coïncider avec les périodes pluviales.L'enrichissement des eaux de surface du lac Kivu en substances minérales a entraîné un développement explosif des diatomées, en particulier du genreNitzchia. Différentes espèces nouvelles de bactéries oxydant et produisant CH₄ ont été isolées. La présence de méthane est due en partie à la destruction du plancton par les bactéries et en partie à une transformation diagénétique.

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