High-resolution aquifer analog of fluvial–aeolian sediments of the Guarani aquifer system

The Guarani aquifer system (GAS) represents one of the biggest aquifers in the world and is the most relevant groundwater resource in South America. For the first time, by combining field and laboratory measurements, a high-resolution aquifer analog model of fluvial–aeolian sediments of the GAS in São Paulo State (Brazil) is constructed. Three parallel sections of frontal outcrops, 28 m × 5.8 m, and two parallel sections of lateral outcrops, 7 m × 5.8 m, are recorded during open-pit mining of sandy sediments and describe in detail the three-dimensional distribution of the local lithofacies and hydrofacies. Variations of hydraulic conductivity, K, and porosity, n, are resolved on the centimeter scale, and the most permeable units of the fluvial–aeolian facies association are identified. The constructed aquifer analog model shows moderate hydraulic heterogeneity and a mean K value of 1.36 × 10^?4 m/s, which is greater than the reported range of K values for the entire GAS in São Paulo State. The results suggest that the examined sedimentary unit constitutes a relevant portion of the GAS in São Paulo State in the context of groundwater extraction and pollution. Moreover, the constructed aquifer analog is considered an ideal basis for future numerical model experiments, aiming at in-depth understanding of the groundwater flow and contaminant transport patterns at this GAS portion or at comparable fluvial–aeolian facies associations.     

Improved regional scale processes reflected in projected hydrological changes over large European catchments

For the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the recent version of the coupled atmosphere/ocean general circulation model (GCM) of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology has been used to conduct an ensemble of transient climate simulations These simulations comprise three control simulations for the past century covering the period 1860–2000, and nine simulations for the future climate (2001–2100) using greenhouse gas (GHG) and aerosol concentrations according to the three IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and A2. For each scenario three simulations were performed. The global simulations were dynamically downscaled over Europe using the regional climate model (RCM) REMO at 0.44° horizontal resolution (about 50 km), whereas the physics packages of the GCM and RCM largely agree. The regional simulations comprise the three control simulations (1950–2000), the three A1B simulations and one simulation for B1 as well as for A2 (2001–2100). In our study we concentrate on the climate change signals in the hydrological cycle and the 2 m temperature by comparing the mean projected climate at the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100) to a control period representing current climate (1961–1990). The robustness of the climate change signal projected by the GCM and RCM is analysed focussing on the large European catchments of Baltic Sea (land only), Danube and Rhine. In this respect, a robust climate change signal designates a projected change that sticks out of the noise of natural climate variability. Catchments and seasons are identified where the climate change signal in the components of the hydrological cycle is robust, and where this signal has a larger uncertainty. Notable differences in the robustness of the climate change signals between the GCM and RCM simulations are related to a stronger warming projected by the GCM in the winter over the Baltic Sea catchment and in the summer over the Danube and Rhine catchments. Our results indicate that the main explanation for these differences is that the finer resolution of the RCM leads to a better representation of local scale processes at the surface that feed back to the atmosphere, i.e. an improved representation of the land sea contrast and related moisture transport processes over the Baltic Sea catchment, and an improved representation of soil moisture feedbacks to the atmosphere over the Danube and Rhine catchments.     

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting: The New Tool for Increasing Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change In Agricultural Planning And Operations

Climate variability and change affects individuals and societies. Within agricultural systems, seasonal climate forecasting can increase preparedness and lead to better social, economic and environmental outcomes. However, climate forecasting is not the panacea to all our problems in agriculture. Instead, it is one of many risk management tools that sometimes play an important role in decision-making. Understanding when, where and how to use this tool is a complex and multi-dimensional problem. To do this effectively, we suggest a participatory, cross-disciplinary research approach that brings together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (e.g., climate science, agricultural systems science, rural sociology and many other disciplines) and people (scientist, policy makers and direct beneficiaries) as equal partners to reap the benefits from climate knowledge. Climate science can provide insights into climatic processes, agricultural systems science can translate these insights into management options and rural sociology can help determine the options that are most feasible or desirable from a socio-economic perspective. Any scientific breakthroughs in climate forecasting capabilities are much more likely to have an immediate and positive impact if they are conducted and delivered within such a framework. While knowledge and understanding of the socio-economic circumstances is important and must be taken into account, the general approach of integrated systems science is generic and applicable in developed as well as in developing countries. Examples of decisions aided by simulation output ranges from tactical crop management options, commodity marketing to policy decisions about future land use. We also highlight the need to better understand temporal- and spatial-scale variability and argue that only a probabilistic approach to outcome dissemination should be considered. We demonstrated how knowledge of climatic variability (CV), can lead to better decisions in agriculture, regardless of geographical location and socio-economic conditions.     

Error characteristics of high resolution regional climate models over the Alpine area

This study describes typical error ranges of high resolution regional climate models operated over complex orography and investigates the scale-dependence of these error ranges. The results are valid primarily for the European Alpine region, but to some extent they can also be transferred to other orographically complex regions of the world. We investigate the model errors by evaluating a set of 62 one-year hindcast experiments for the year 1999 with four different regional climate models. The analysis is conducted for the parameters mean sea level pressure, air temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and precipitation (mean, frequency and intensity), both as an area average over the whole modeled domain (the “Greater Alpine Region”, GAR) and in six subregions. The subregional seasonal error ranges, defined as the interval between the 2.5th percentile and the 97.5th percentile, lie between ?3.2 and +2.0 K for temperature and between ?2.0 and +3.1 mm/day (?45.7 and +94.7%) for precipitation, respectively. While the temperature error ranges are hardly broadened at smaller scales, the precipitation error ranges increase by 28%. These results demonstrate that high resolution RCMs are applicable in relatively small scale climate impact studies with a comparable quality as on well investigated larger scales as far as temperature is concerned. For precipitation, which is a much more demanding parameter, the quality is moderately degraded on smaller scales.     

Soil properties and performance of landmine detection by metal detector and ground-penetrating radar — Soil characterisation and its verification by a field test

Metal detectors have commonly been used for landmine detection, and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) is about to be deployed for this purpose. These devices are influenced by the magnetic and electric properties of soil, since both employ electromagnetic techniques. Various soil properties and their spatial distributions were measured and determined with geophysical methods in four soil types where a test of metal detectors and GPR systems took place. By analysing the soil properties, these four soils were classified based on the expected influence of each detection technique and predicted soil difficulty. This classification was compared to the detection performance of the detectors and a clear correlation between the predicted soil difficulty and performance was observed. The detection performance of the metal detector and target identification performance of the GPR systems degraded in soils that were expected to be problematic. Therefore, this study demonstrated that the metal detector and GPR performance for landmine detection can be assessed qualitatively by geophysical analyses.     

Syndeformational recrystallization – dynamic or compositionally induced?

Dynamic recrystallization in the strict sense of the term is the reconstitution of crystalline material without a change in chemical composition, driven by strain energy in the form of dislocations. Driving potentials additional to internal strain energy may contribute to the recrystallization of naturally deformed minerals, which form solid solutions such as feldspar, amphiboles and pyroxenes, if they change their composition during recrystallization. To estimate the relative importance of these driving potentials, the chemical composition of porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains of plagioclase, clinopyroxene and hornblende have been investigated in samples from a high grade shear zone of the Ivrea Zone, Italy. The plagioclases show two different recrystallization microstructures: bulging recrystallization at grain boundaries and discrete zones of recrystallized grains across porphyroclasts probably involving fracturing. Deformation took place under amphibolite facies conditions on a retrograde P,T-path. Porphyroclast and recrystallized compositions from bulging recrystallization microstructures differ only in their Or-content and yield a ΔG between mean host grain and mean recrystallized grain composition at fixed P,T-conditions of approximately 5 Joules/10⁻⁴ m³. Extreme compositional variations yield approximately 60 J/10⁻⁴m³. The increase of free energy due to dislocations calculated for common glide systems in plagioclase are on the order of 100 Joules/10⁻⁴m³ for high values of dislocation densities of 10¹⁴m⁻². Thus, the effect of chemically induced driving energies on grain boundary velocity appears small for mean compositions but may be as great as that of deformational energies for larger chemical differences. In the other type of microstructure, porphyroclasts and recrystallized grains in discrete zones differ in their anorthite content. The maximum ΔG induced by the compositional disequilibrium is on the order of 100 J/10⁻⁴m³. This maximum value is of the same magnitude as the ΔG derived from high dislocation densities of 10¹⁴ m⁻². The resulting combined ΔG is approximately twice as high as for deformational ΔG alone, and heterogeneous nucleation may become a feasible recrystallization mechanism which is evident from the microstructures. The recrystallization mechanism depends on the nature of the driving potential. Grain boundary migration (GBM) and heterogeneous nucleation can release Gibbs free energy induced by compositional disequilibrium, whereas this is not likely for subgrain rotation. Therefore, only GBM and heterogeneous nucleation may link metamorphism and deformation, so that syndeformational recrystallization may represent a transitional process ranging from dynamic recrystallization to metamorphic reaction. Received: 8 July 1996 / Accepted: 17 November 1997     

Sensitivity of an ecosystem model to hydrology and temperature

We tested the sensitivity of a dynamic ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) to the representation of soil moisture and soil temperature and to uncertainties in the prediction of precipitation and air temperature. We linked the ecosystem model with an advanced hydrological model (JULES) and used its soil moisture and soil temperature as input into the ecosystem model. We analysed these sensitivities along a latitudinal gradient in northern Russia. Differences in soil temperature and soil moisture had only little influence on the vegetation carbon fluxes, whereas the soil carbon fluxes were very sensitive to the JULES soil estimations. The sensitivity changed with latitude, showing stronger influence in the more northern grid cell. The sensitivity of modelled responses of both soil carbon fluxes and vegetation carbon fluxes to uncertainties in soil temperature were high, as both soil and vegetation carbon fluxes were strongly impacted. In contrast, uncertainties in the estimation of the amount of precipitation had little influence on the soil or vegetation carbon fluxes. The high sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature and moisture suggests that we should strive for a better understanding and representation of soil processes in ecosystem models to improve the reliability of predictions of future ecosystem changes.     

Glacial lake depth and volume estimation based on a large bathymetric dataset from the Cordillera Blanca,Peru

Glacial lakes are most often located in remote places making it difficult to carry out detailed bathymetric surveys. Consequently, lake depths and volumes for unmeasured lakes are often estimated using empirical relationships developed mainly from small bathymetric datasets. In this study, we use the bathymetry dataset of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru comprising 121 detailed lake bathymetries, the most extensive dataset in the world. We assess the performance of the most commonly applied empirical relationships for lake mean depth and volume estimation, but also investigate relationships between different geometric lake variables. We find that lake volume estimation performs better when derived from lake mean depth, which in turn is estimated from lake width. The findings also reveal the extreme variability of lake geometry, which depends on glacio-geomorphological processes that empirical–statistical relationships cannot adequately represent. Such relationships involve characteristic uncertainty ranges of roughly ±50%. We also estimate potential peak discharges of outburst floods from these lakes by applying empirical relationships from the literature, which results in discharges varying by up to one-order of magnitude. Finally, the results are applied to the 860 lakes without bathymetric measurements from the inventory dataset of the Cordillera Blanca to estimate lake mean depth, volume and possible peak discharge for all unmeasured lakes. Estimations show that ca. 70% (610) of the lakes have a mean depth lower than 10 m and very few longer than 40 m. Lake volume of unmeasured lakes represent ca. 32% (5.18 × 10⁸ m³) of the total lake volume (1.15 × 10⁹ m³) in the Cordillera Blanca. Approximately, 50% of the lakes have potential peak discharges > 1000 m³/s in case of lake outburst floods, implying a need for additional studies for risk assessment. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Investigating the transport dynamics and the properties of bedload material with a hydro‐acoustic measuring system

This article deals with the following two questions. Are acoustic measurements in running waters appropriate for a highly resolved investigation of the bedload transport? Which characterizations of the bedload regarding mass and shape are possible via the acoustic signals? The signals were recorded by means of data recorders (Tascam Inc. DAP1 Portable Data Recorder) and hydrophones (International Transducer Corp. ITC‐4001 A). The ITC‐4001 is a shallow water omnidirectional transducer containing a flexural disc transducer utilizing Channelite‐5400 ceramics mounted in a rugged corrosion‐resistant housing. These hydrophones were screwed onto the bottom side of stainless steel plates, serving as a contact surface for the bedload in motion above them. After more than 100 series of tests in the laboratory, which indicated the basic relations between the dimension, shape and weight of the bedload and the resulting signal, field tests of the measuring system were conducted. By artificially produced flood waves in the small brooks Riverisbach, Olewiger Bach and by a winter flood wave in the River Moselle, it is possible to elaborate similar structures of the signal course of the bedload movement. The highest transport rates can be observed at the beginning of the increasing limbs and behind the peaks of the waves. At the beginning of the waves, the increasing transport power of the water and the loose material can be considered as the cause for this result. The high stream velocity behind the wave peaks explains the increase in the bedload transport so that material from the channel beds is unfastened and will be mobilized. The characterization of the bedload regarding the shape and mass is still limited regarding the field measurements and could be solved only for homogeneous grain sizes and single stones under laboratory conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.