Developing a hybrid multi‐model for peak flood forecasting

The present study aims to develop a hybrid multi‐model using the soft computing approach. The model is a combination of a fuzzy logic, artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA). While neural networks are low‐level computational structures that perform well dealing with raw data, fuzzy logic deal with reasoning on a higher level by using linguistic information acquired from domain experts. However, fuzzy systems lack the ability to learn and cannot adjust themselves to a new environment. Moreover, experts occasionally make mistakes and thus some rules used in a system may be false. A network type structure of the present hybrid model is a multi‐layer feed‐forward network, the main part is a fuzzy system based on the first‐order Sugeno fuzzy model with a fuzzification and a defuzzification processes. The consequent parameters are determined by least square method. The back‐propagation is applied to adjust weights of network. Then, the antecedent parameters of the membership function are updated accordingly by the gradient descent method. The GA was applied to select the fuzzy rule. The hybrid multi‐model was used to forecast the flood level at Chiang Mai (under the big flood 2005) and the Koriyama flood (2003) in Japan. The forecasting results are evaluated using standard global goodness of fit statistic, efficient index (EI), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the peak flood error. Moreover, the results are compared to the results of a neuro‐genetic model (NGO) and ANFIS model using the same input and output variables. It was found that the hybrid multi‐model can be used successfully with an efficiency index (EI) more than 0·95 (for Chiang Mai flood up to 12 h ahead forecasting) and more than 0·90 (for Koriyama flood up to 8 h ahead forecasting). In general, all of three models can predict the water level with satisfactory results. However, the hybrid model gave the best flood peak estimation among the three models. Therefore, the use of fuzzy rule base, which is selected by GA in the hybrid multi‐model helps to improve the accuracy of flood peak. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of a new generation system for bottom boundary layer beneath solitary wave

Understanding of sea bottom boundary layer characteristics, especially bottom shear stress acting on the sea bed, is an important step needed in sediment transport modeling for practical application purposes. In the present study, a new generation system for bottom boundary layer under solitary wave is proposed. Applicability of this system is examined by comparing measured and numerical solution velocities. Moreover, transitional behavior from laminar to turbulence was investigated. It is concluded that the critical Reynolds number in the experiments shows good agreement with DNS result of Vittori and Blondeaux (2008) and laboratory data of Sumer et al. (2010), indicating validity of the generation system. Since the present generation system enables continuous measurement to obtain ensemble averaged quantities, it can be effectively utilized for future experimental studies on solitary wave boundary layers, including sediment transport experiments with movable bed.     

Estimation of inner-core rotation rate by using the Earth’s free oscillation

We estimate a rate of inner-core differential rotation from time variations of splitting functions of seven core modes of the Earth’s free oscillations excited by eight large earthquakes in a period of 1994–2003. The splitting functions and moment tensor elements are simultaneously determined for each core mode by a spectral fitting technique. The estimated moment tensor well agrees with Harvard CMT solution. The splitting functions are corrected for the effect of mantle heterogeneity using a 3D mantle velocity model. Inner-core rotation angle about the Earth’s spin axis is determined for each core mode as a function of event year by comparison of the corrected and reference splitting functions. Mean rotation rate of six core modes is estimated at 0.03±0.18° per year westward, and this value is insignificantly different from zero. Therefore, the inner core is not rotating at a significant rate relatively to the crust and mantle.     

Topography of the Seismic Velocity Discontinuities beneath the Chugoku and Shikoku Districts,Southwest Japan

The first P-arrival-time data from 513 local earthquakes were analyzed to study lateral variation of the depth to the Conrad and Moho discontinuities beneath the Chugoku and Shikoku districts, southwest Japan, as well as to determine earthquake hypocenters and P-wave station corrections. The depth to the discontinuity was estimated by minimizing the travel-time residuals of more than 8700 first P arrivals observed at 55 seismic stations. The Conrad and Moho discontinuities are located within depth ranges of 15–25 km and 30–40 km, respectively. The Moho is deeper under the mountain area than under the Seto Inland Sea area, and especially deep under the Pacific Coast of the Shikoku district and the mountain area in the Chugoku district. The depth variation of the Moho is quite similar to the Bouguer gravity anomaly distribution and the lateral variations of the P-wave velocity. The deep Moho under the southern Shikoku is located at the portion in which the continental Moho under the island arc meets the oceanic Moho that is the boundary interface between the oceanic crust and the Philippine Sea (PHS) plate dipping toward the back arc. Although there are high mountains in the northern and middle Shikoku, the Moho is not so deep because subduction of the PHS plate prevents the Moho from getting deep, while the Moho is deep due to isostatic balance under the mountain area in the Chugoku district. In addition, we indicated the possibility that the upper boundary of the oceanic crust just above the high-velocity PHS plate is in contact with the deep Moho under the western Chugoku. The contact of the Moho with the oceanic crust can explain the markedly negative gravity anomaly observed in the western Chugoku and the later phase that appears just after the first P arrival from local earthquakes.     

Transformation functions of soil color and climate

Measurements on modern soil color suggest well functional relationships between the soil formation process and the present climatic factors. The redness and yellowness of soil are chiefly caused by the contents of hematite and fullonite, and their correlations to climate are the best in humid regions in tropic and warm temperate regions. The lightness of soil mainly correlates to the organic accumulation, humification and carbonatization processes, and its correlation to climate can only be found in the humid-arid extratropical belt. The humidity and surface roughness of soil have so strong influence on soil color that there are great errors on the measurement of colorness in the field. The study on soil colors of typical loess sections shows that soil color can record the characteristics of Asia monsoon and the global climatic fluctuations well at millennial and ten-thousand-year scales. It can also indicate the pedogenesis and the climatic characteristics which magnetic susceptibility could not be reflected in humidity areas. Therefore, soil color can be used as a new climatic proxy which is easy and quick to measure, and will make an active influence on the study of global changes, geomorphology and Quaternary.

     

SELENE project status

SELENE (Selenological and Engineering Explorer) project started as a joint mission of the former ISAS (Institute of Space and Astronautical Science) and the former NASDA (National Space Development Agency: the two organizations were merged into JAXA in 2002) of Japan in 1998. The launch target is rescheduled for 2006 due to delay of completion of launch vehicle, H-IIA. The SELENE project is now under a sustained design phase. The flight model components were manufactured, and the interface tests between the bus-system and the mission instruments were completed by the end of March 2004. The functional checks and calibration for the flight model components are being carried out at present. From the beginning of 2005, the final assembly tests will start.     

High-pressure transformations of ilmenite to perovskite, and lithium niobate to perovskite in zinc germanate

In-situ X-ray powder diffraction measurements conducted under high pressure confirmed the existence of an unquenchable orthorhombic perovskite in ZnGeO₃. ZnGeO₃ ilmenite transformed into perovskite at 30.0 GPa and 1300±150 K in a laser-heated diamond anvil cell. After releasing the pressure, the lithium niobate phase was recovered as a quenched product. The perovskite was also obtained by recompression of the lithium niobate phase at room temperature under a lower pressure than the equilibrium phase boundary of the ilmenite–perovskite transition. Bulk moduli of ilmenite, lithium niobate, and perovskite phases were calculated on the basis of the refined X-ray diffraction data. The structural relations among these phases are considered in terms of the rotation of GeO₆ octahedra. A slight rotation of the octahedra plays an important role for the transition from lithium niobate to perovskite at ambient temperature. On the other hand, high temperature is needed to rearrange GeO₆ octahedra in the ilmenite–perovskite transition. The correlation of quenchability with rotation angle of GeO₆ octahedra for other germanate perovskites is also discussed.