Comparison of four ensemble methods combining regional climate simulations over Asia

A number of uncertainties exist in climate simulation because the results of climate models are influenced by factors such as their dynamic framework, physical processes, initial and driving fields, and horizontal and vertical resolution. The uncertainties of the model results may be reduced, and the credibility can be improved by employing multi-model ensembles. In this paper, multi-model ensemble results using 10-year simulations of five regional climate models (RCMs) from December 1988 to November 1998 over Asia are presented and compared. The simulation results are derived from phase II of the Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (RMIP) for Asia. Using the methods of the arithmetic mean, the weighted mean, multivariate linear regression, and singular value decomposition, the ensembles for temperature, precipitation, and sea level pressure are carried out. The results show that the multi-RCM ensembles outperform the single RCMs in many aspects. Among the four ensemble methods used, the multivariate linear regression, based on the minimization of the root mean square errors, significantly improved the ensemble results. With regard to the spatial distribution of the mean climate, the ensemble result for temperature was better than that for precipitation. With an increasing number of models used in the ensembles, the ensemble results were more accurate. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble is an efficient approach to improve the results of regional climate simulations.     

Crustal anorthosite formation by deep-seated hydrothermal circulation beneath fast-spreading axis: Constraints from chronological approach,Sr isotope,and fluid–chromite inclusion investigation

Hydrothermal circulation beneath the spreading axis plays a significant role in the exchange of energy and mass between the solid Earth and the oceans. Deep-seated hydrothermal circulation down to the crust/mantle boundary in the fast-spreading axis has been introduced by a number of studies regarding geological investigations and numerical models. In order to assess a reaction between hydrothermal fluid and host rock around the crust/mantle boundary, we conducted bulk trace element and Sr isotope analyses with a series of in situ investigations for crustal anorthosite, a reaction product between hydrothermal fluid and gabbro in the lowermost crustal section along Wadi Fizh, northern Oman ophiolite. In addition, we conducted titanite U–Pb isotope analyses to evaluate timing of the crustal anorthosite formation in the framework of the evolutional process of the Oman ophiolite. We estimated the formation age of the crustal anorthosite at 97.5 Ma ± 5.0 Ma, overlapping with the timing of the crust formation in the paleo spreading axis. The crustal anorthosite shows high-Th/U ratio (~2.5) and high-initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio (0.7050) due to seawater-derived hydrothermal fluid ingress into the precursor gabbro. With using analytical technique of micro-excavation at cryo-temperature, we detected Cl from a few micrometer-sized inclusion of aqueous fluid and chromite grains. The solubility of Cr was enhanced by complexation reactions with Cl in the hydrothermal fluid. Regarding reconstructed three-dimensional mass distribution of the inclusion and chromite composition, maximum Cr content of parental fluid was estimated at ~69 000 μg/g. The exceptionally high-Cr content was achieved locally by leaking of fluid and synchronous chromite crystallization during fluid entrapment. Presence of the deep-seated hydrothermal circulation could be assigned to the segment end, where cold seawater penetrates into the lowermost crust and extract heat along widely spaced network-like fluid channel.     

Relationships of interannual variability in SST and phytoplankton blooms with giant jellyfish (Nemopilema nomurai) outbreaks in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

Giant jellyfish (Nemopilema nomurai) outbreaks in relation to satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl-a) were investigated in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea (YECS) from 1998 to 2010. Temperature, eutrophication, and match–mismatch hypotheses were examined to explain long-term increases and recent reductions of N. nomurai outbreaks. We focused on the timing of SST reaching 15 °C, a critical temperature enabling polyps to induce strobilation and enabling released ephyra to grow. We analyzed the relationship of the timing with interannual variability of SST, Chl-a, and the timing of phytoplankton blooms. Different environmental characteristics among pre-jellyfish years (1998–2001), jellyfish years (2002–2007, 2009), and non-jellyfish years (2008, 2010) were assessed on this basis. The SST during late spring and early summer increased significantly from 1985 to 2007. This indicated that high SST is beneficial to the long-term increases in jellyfish outbreaks. SST was significantly lower in non-jellyfish years than in jellyfish years, suggesting that low SST might reduce the proliferation of N. nomurai. We identified three (winter, spring, and summer) major phytoplankton bloom regions and one summer decline region. Both Chl-a during non-blooming periods and the peak increased significantly from 1998 to 2010 in most of the YECS. This result indicates that eutrophication is beneficial to the long-term increases in jellyfish outbreaks. Timing of phytoplankton blooms varied interannually and spatially, and their match and mismatch to the timing of SST reaching 15 °C did not correspond to long-term increases in N. nomurai outbreaks and the recent absence.     

Application of a two-way nested model to the seamount problem

A two-way nested model has been constructed and applied to the idealized ocean where a uniform mean flow impinges on the isolated Gaussian-shaped seamount and produces two eddies (cold and warm) in the depths. The performance of the nested model has been evaluated subjectively and objectively. Both subjective and objective analyses confirm the traditional view that the nested model can well capture the performance of isolated eddies. Objective analysis, however, reveals some quantitatively important features of a two-way nested model. One is penetration of improved features into the coarse domain and another is the deterioration of mean flow field inside the nested area, neither of which is clear from subjective analysis. With successful application of two-way nested model to the seamount problem, we expect that such a nested model will also be applicable to other oceanic phenomena, particularly to some coastal problems whose time scale is short and where the topographic effects are dominant.     

船舶螺旋桨尾流场的数值分析

利用基于速度势的低阶面元法计算船舶螺旋桨的尾流场。采用计算较为简捷的关于扰动速度势的基本积分微分方程，并采用双曲面形状的面凶以消除面元间的缝隙。Newton-Raphson迭代过程被用来在桨叶随边满足压力Kutta条件，使桨叶面上表面的压力在随边有良好的一致性。在计算面元的影响系数时，应用了Morino导出的解析计算公式，加快了数值计算的速度。从解面元法的基本积分方程得到的偶极强度和源汇强度，直接求得尾流场的速度分布。     

Late Cenozoic volcanic activity in the Chugoku area, southwest Japan arc during back-arc basin opening and reinitiation of subduction

Abstract Temporal–spatial variations in Late Cenozoic volcanic activity in the Chugoku area, southwest Japan, have been examined based on 108 newly obtained K–Ar ages. Lava samples were collected from eight Quaternary volcanic provinces (Daisen, Hiruzen, Yokota, Daikonjima, Sambe, Ooe–Takayama, Abu and Oki) and a Tertiary volcanic cluster (Kibi Province) to cover almost all geological units in the province. Including published age data, a total of 442 Cenozoic radiometric ages are now available. Across‐arc volcanic activity in an area approximately 500 km long and 150 km wide can be examined over 26 million years. The period corresponds to syn‐ and post‐back‐arc basin opening stages of the island arc. Volcanic activity began in the central part of the rear‐arc ca 26 Ma. This was followed by arc‐wide expansion at 20 Ma by eruption at two rear‐arc centers located at the eastern and western ends. Expansion to the fore‐arc occurred between 20 and 12 Ma. This Tertiary volcanic arc was maintained until 4 Ma with predominant alkali basalt centers. The foremost‐arc zone activity ceased at 4 Ma, followed by quiescence over the whole arc between 4 and 3 Ma. Volcanic activity resumed at 3 Ma, covering the entire rear‐arc area, and continued until the present to form a Quaternary volcanic arc. Adakitic dacite first occurred at 1.7 Ma in the middle of the arc, and spread out in the center part of the Quaternary volcanic arc. Alkali basalt activities ceased in the area where adakite volcanism occurred. Fore‐arc expansion of the volcanic arc could be related to the upwelling and expansion of the asthenosphere, which caused opening of the Japan Sea. Narrowing of the volcanic zone could have been caused by progressive Philippine Sea Plate subduction. Deeper penetration could have caused melting of the slab and resulted in adakites. Volcanic history in the Late Cenozoic was probably controlled by the history of evolution of the upper mantle structure, coinciding with back‐arc basin opening and subsequent reinitiation of subduction.     

Zur Altersfrage des oberjurassischen Aptychenkalkes im Balderschwanger Klippengebiet

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

On the relation between the growth rate of water waves and wind speed

Various wind velocitiesu _*,U _/2,U andU ₁₀ are correlated to the measured growth rate of water waves , whereu _* is the friction velocity of the wind, andU _/2,U andU ₁₀ are the wind speeds respectively at the heights /2, and 10m above sea surface (: wave length). It is shown that within a range of the dimensionless wind speed, 0.1<u _* /C<0.6, there are no appreciable differences in the correlations, whereC is the phase velocity of water waves. The present relation between andU shows qualitatively similar properties as the one obtained by Al'Zanaidi and Hui (1984); the growth rate for waves with rough surface is larger than that with smooth surface. However, our present relations give, for the both waves with different surface roughness, larger values by factors 1.71.8 than those given by Al'Zanaidi and Hui's relation.     

A Historical Note on the Study of Ocean Surface Waves

The modern study of ocean surface waves started with a pioneer study by Sverdrup and Munk (1947). More than half a century has passed since then and the study of ocean surface waves has greatly advanced. The current numerical wave models, supported by many fundamental studies, enable us to compute ocean surface waves on a global scale with sufficient accuracy for practical purposes. However, physical process controlling the energy balance of ocean surface waves is still not completely understood. The present note is a rough sketch of the historical development of the study of ocean surface waves in the latter half of the twentieth century when the Oceanographic Society of Japan was founded and grew. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.