Regional bivariate modeling of droughts using L-comoments and copulas

The regional bivariate modeling of drought characteristics using the copulas provides valuable information for water resources management and drought risk assessment. The regional frequency analysis (RFA) can specify the similar sites within a region using L-comoments approach. One of the important steps in the RFA is estimating regional parameters of the copula function. In the present study, an optimization-based method along with the adjusted charged system search are introduced and applied to estimate the regional parameters of the copula models. The capability of the proposed methodology is illustrated by copula functions on drought events. Three commonly used copulas containing Clayton, Frank and Gumbel are employed to derive the joint distribution of drought severity and duration. The result of the new method are compared to the method of moments and after applying several goodness-of-fit tests, the results indicate that the new method provides higher accuracy than the classic one. Furthermore, the results of the upper tail dependence coefficient indicate that the Gumbel copula is the best-fitted copula among the other ones for modeling drought characteristics.     

Magnetic properties of tidal flat sediments of the Yangtze Estuary and its relationship with particle size

Since the 1970s, environmental magnetism has found extensive applications in diverse research areas of geoscience[1]. In China, a lot of environmental magnetic studies have been carried out on loess, lake and marine sediments for the purpose of paleoclima…     

Limnological effects of growth and cessation of agricultural land use in Ladoga Karelia: sedimentary pollen and diatom analyses

Reference conditions and changes in limnological conditions during the 20th century have been inferred in a palaeolimnological study of sediments from six lakes of the District of Sortavala, Karelian Republic, Russia. The area is former Finnish territory, which was in intensive use for arable field cultivation until the World War II, when the area was ceded to the Soviet Union. After the war, farming was resumed by cattle sovkhozes, and the fields were mainly used as pasture without regular ploughing. We have studied the history of eutrophication and recovery in some lakes related with the changes of agricultural intensity. The trophic level of the lakes was studied by sedimentary diatom assemblages, including reconstructions of total phosphorus levels in the lakes based on a weighted averaging transfer function. Pollen analyses were used to assess the changes in the land use near the lakes. Valuable background data on all the lakes used in the present study are provided by a doctoral thesis done on their limnology from the 1920s. According to our results, the four lakes situated on the clayey lowlands near the coast of Lake Ladoga were eutrophicating during the first half of the 20th century, and in two of them, a rapid recovery is evident. In two lakes situated in hilly landscape with limited agricultural activities, only minor changes are recorded in the diatom profiles.     

Refining the timing of eclogite metamorphism: a geochemical,petrological, Sm-Nd and U-Pb case study from the Pohorje Mountains,Slovenia (Eastern Alps)

High-pressure metamorphism in the Pohorje Mountains of Slovenia (Austroalpine unit, Eastern Alps) affected N-MORB type metabasic and metapelitic lithologies. Thermodynamic calculations and equilibrium phase diagrams of kyanite–phengite-bearing eclogites reveal PT conditions of >2.1 GPa at T<750°C, but within the stability field of quartz. Metapelitic eclogite country rocks contain the assemblage garnet + phengite + kyanite + quartz, for which calculated peak pressure conditions are in good agreement with results obtained from eclogite samples. The eclogites contain a single population of spherical zircon with a low Th/U ratio. Combined constraints on the age of metamorphism come from U/Pb zircon as well as garnet–whole rock and mineral–mineral Sm-Nd analyses from eclogites. A coherent cluster of single zircon analyses yields a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U age of 90.7±1.0 Ma that is in good agreement with results from Sm-Nd garnet–whole rock regression of 90.7±3.9 and 90.1±2.0 Ma (εNd: +8) for two eclogite samples. The agreement between U-Pb and Sm-Nd age data strongly suggests an age of approximately 90 Ma for the pressure peak of the eclogites in the Pohorje Mountains. The presence of garnet, omphacite and quartz inclusions in unfractured zircon indicates high-pressure rather than ultrahigh pressure conditions. The analysed metapelite sample yields a Sm-Nd garnet–whole rock scatterchron age of 97±15 Ma. These data probably support a single P-T loop for mafic and pelitic lithologies of the Pohorje area and a late Cretaceous high-pressure event that affected the entire easternmost Austroalpine basement including the Koralpe and Saualpe eclogite type locality in the course of the complex collision of the Apulian microplate and Europe.     

Emplacement mechanisms of the South Kona slide complex,Hawaii Island: sampling and observations by remotely operated vehicle Kaiko

Emplacement of a giant submarine slide complex, offshore of South Kona, Hawaii Island, was investigated in 2001 by visual observation and in-situ sampling on the bench scarp and a megablock, during two dives utilizing the Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) Kaiko and its mother ship R/V Kairei. Topography of the bench scarp and megablocks were defined in 3-D perspective, using high-resolution digital bathymetric data acquired during the cruise. Compositions of 34 rock samples provide constraints on the landslide source regions and emplacement mechanisms. The bench scarp consists mainly of highly fractured, vesiculated, and oxidized aa lavas that slumped from the subaerial flank of ancestral Mauna Loa. The megablock contains three units: block facies, matrix facies, and draped sediment. The block facies contains hyaloclastite interbedded with massive lava, which slid from the shallow submarine flank of ancestral Mauna Loa, as indicated by glassy groundmass of the hyaloclastite, low oxidation state, and low sulfur content. The matrix facies, which directly overlies the block facies and is similar to a lahar deposit, is thought to have been deposited from the water column immediately after the South Kona slide event. The draped sediment is a thin high-density turbidite layer that may be a distal facies of the Alika-2 debris-avalanche deposit; its composition overlaps with rocks from subaerial Mauna Loa. The deposits generated by the South Kona slide vary from debris avalanche deposit to turbidite. Spatial distribution of the deposits is consistent with deposits related to large landslides adjacent to other Hawaiian volcanoes and the Canary Islands.     

古吉黑造山带拼接带地球物理特征线

吉黑造山带拼接带的地球物理特征线，在重磁图上为伊通-吉昌-桦甸、贤儒-安图-开山屯一线。它分割了两种截然不同的地球物理场区，与两侧中元古宙-早三叠世不同的地质发育历史相呼应；和石炭-二叠系安哥拉与华夏植物地球区系的界线相一致。这是有别于前人而为更多新的地质资料所支持的新认识。     

Some evidence on European monsoon existence

Large-scale European atmospheric circulation induced by temperature differences between the continent and the North Atlantic Ocean causes thermodynamic and climatic conditions that initiate a European monsoon. In Eastern Europe, the rainy season occurs in early summer, and the dry season occurs in winter. In Western Europe, the rainy season is in the early winter and the dry season is in the spring. This precipitation trend, as well as other climatic features, suggests the existence of a European monsoon.     

Forecasting rock slope failure: how reliable and effective are warning systems?

Warning systems are increasingly applied to reduce damage caused by different magnitudes of rockslides and rockfalls. In an integrated risk-management approach, the optimal risk mitigation strategy is identified by comparing the achieved effectiveness and cost; estimating the reliability of the warning system is the basis for such considerations. Here, we calculate the reliability and effectiveness of the warning system installed in Preonzo prior to a major rockfall in May 2012. “Reliability” is defined as the ability of the warning system to forecast the hazard event and to prevent damage. To be cost-effective, the warning system should forecast an event with a limited number of false alarms to avoid unnecessary costs for intervention measures. The analysis shows that to be reliable, warning systems should be designed as fail-safe constructions. They should incorporate components with low failure probabilities, high redundancy, have low warning thresholds, and additional control systems. In addition, the experts operating the warning system should have limited risk tolerance. In an additional hypothetical probabilistic analysis, we investigate the effect of the risk attitude of the decision makers and of the number of sensors on the probability of detecting the event and initiating a timely evacuation, as well as on the related intervention cost. The analysis demonstrates that quantitative assessments can support the identification of optimal warning system designs and decision criteria.