Future changes in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean projected by high-resolution MRI-AGCMs

New and previous versions of the high-resolution 20- and 60-km-mesh Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation models are used to investigate potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the North Indian Ocean (NIO). Fifteen ensemble experiments are performed under the International Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. Most of the ensemble future (2075–2099) experiments do not project significant future changes in the basin-scale TC genesis number; however, they commonly show a substantial increase (by 46 %) in TC frequency over the Arabian Sea and a decrease (by 31 %) in the Bay of Bengal. Projected future changes in TC genesis frequency show a marked seasonal variation in the NIO: a significant and robust reduction during the pre-monsoon season, an increase during the peak-monsoon season, and a westward shift during the post-monsoon season. Several large-scale thermodynamic and dynamical parameters are analysed to elucidate the physical mechanism responsible for the future changes in TC activity; this analysis reveals a seasonal dependence of the relative contribution of these parameters to the projected future changes in TC genesis frequency.     

Diurnal Variation in the Vertical Profile of the Raindrop Size Distribution for Stratiform Rain as Inferred from Micro Rain Radar Observations in Sumatra

The diurnal variation in the vertical structure of the raindrop size distribution(RSD) associated with stratiform rain at Kototabang, West Sumatra(0.20°S, 100.32°E), was investigated using micro rain radar(MRR) observations from January 2012 to August 2016. Along with the MRR data, the RSD from an optical disdrometer and vertical profile of precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission were used to establish the microphysical characteristics of diurnal rainfall.Rainfall during 0000–0600 LST and 1800–2400 LST had a lower concentration of small drops and a higher concentration of large drops when compared to rainfall during the daytime(0600–1800 LST). The RSD stratified on the basis of rain rate(R) showed a lower total concentration of drops and higher mass-weighted mean diameter in 0000–0600 LST and1800–2400 LST than in the daytime. During the daytime, the RSD is likely governed by a riming process that can be seen from a weak bright band(BB). On the other hand, during 0000–0600 LST and 1800–2400 LST, the BB was stronger and the rainfall was associated with a higher concentration of midsize and large drops, which could be attributed to more active aggregation right above the melting layer with minimal breakup. Diurnal variation in the vertical profile of RSD led to a different radar reflectivity(Z)–R relationship in the rain column, in which Z during the periods 0000–0600 LST and1800–2400 LST was larger than at the other times, for the same R.     

Extinction curves expected in young galaxies

We investigate the extinction curves of young galaxies in which dust is supplied from Type II supernovae (SNe II) and/or pair instability supernovae (PISNe). We adopt Nozawa et al. (2003) for compositions and size distribution of grains formed in SNe II and PISNe. We find that the extinction curve is quite sensitive to internal metal mixing in supernovae (SNe). The extinction curves predicted from the mixed SNe are dominated by SiO₂ and are characterized by a steep rise from infrared to ultraviolet (UV). The dust from unmixed SNe shows a shallower extinction curve, because of the contribution from large-sized (∼0.1 μm) Si grains. However, the progenitor mass is important in unmixed SNe II: if the progenitor mass is smaller than  ∼20 M_⊙  , the extinction curve is flat in UV; otherwise, the extinction curve rises towards the short wavelength. The extinction curve observed in a high-redshift quasar  ( z = 6.2)  favours the dust production by unmixed SNe II. We also provide some useful observational quantities, so that our model might be compared with future high- z extinction curves.     

Statistical Analysis of Ground Motions Estimated on the Basis of a Recipe for Strong-motion Prediction: Approach to Quantitative Evaluation of Average and Standard Deviation of Ground Motion Distribution

For seismic hazard assessment, we study the variabilities of predicted ground motion on the basis of a ??recipe for predicting strong ground motion?? and propose approximations to evaluate spatial distributions of the standard deviation for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0 in the estimated ground motions. For strong-motion prediction, we use a finite difference method for a long period range (>1.0?s). To estimate variabilities, a Monte Carlo simulation is used and we adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique to reduce computations. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and site characteristics. Model sources are assumed for dip-slip fault and strike-slip fault, and the variabilities are considered for parameters such as asperity location, rupture starting point, average asperity slip contrast, stress drop and rupture velocity. On the target site, 100 instances of PGV, R1.0, R2.0 and R5.0 data are obtained for 100 sets of parameters and an average and a standard deviation of the log normal distribution, corresponding to the variability for ground motion estimation, are statistically analyzed. For all target sites uniformly distributed in the area around the faults, the average and the standard deviation are statistically analyzed and spread to spatial maps. It is found that the spatial distributions of standard deviation values for both the dip-slip and strike-slip faults are not uniform. Approximations are attempted to develop a quantitative evaluation for spatial distributions of the standard deviation of the log normal distribution for PGV, R1.0, R2.0, and R5.0. The spatial distributions by these approximations are considered to almost reconstruct the characteristics, which are statistically analyzed by the finite difference method.     

Rheological contrast between garnet and clinopyroxene in the mantle wedge: An example from Higashi-akaishi peridotite mass,SW Japan

Garnet clinopyroxenites occur within foliated dunite in the Higashi-akaishi peridotite mass, located within the subduction-type high-pressure/low-temperature Sanbagawa metamorphic belt. The garnet clinopyroxenites contain 3–80% garnet, and garnet and clinopyroxene are homogeneously distributed. Garnet crystals contain extensive, regular dislocation arrays and dislocation networks, suggesting that dislocation creep was the dominant deformation mechanism. Analyses of crystallographic orientation maps indicate similar grain sizes and aspect ratios for garnet and clinopyroxene, regardless of modal composition, indicating that these minerals deformed with similar degree of plasticity. Moreover, indexes of crystallographic fabric intensity (i.e., J-index and M-index) for both garnet and clinopyroxene tend to increase with increasing modal composition of garnet. Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy analysis revealed that water content in garnet is ～60 ppm, whereas that in clinopyroxene is ～70 ppm. Olivine crystal-preferred orientations in the Higashi-akaishi peridotite mass, characterized by [0 0 1] (0 1 0), are thought to have developed during deformation under wet conditions. Consequently, we argue that the presence of water could act to enhance garnet plasticity during deformation. The results reveal contrasting influences of water on the deformation of garnet and diopside: under wet conditions compared with dry, the strain rate increases by two orders of magnitude for garnet but by an order of magnitude for diopside. Given the influence of water on the creep strength of garnet, garnet within the Higashi-akaishi mass may have become significantly as weak as clinopyroxene during deformation.     

Pressure responses of portlandite and H–D isotope effects on pressure-induced phase transitions

The pressure responses of portlandite and the isotope effect on the phase transition were investigated at room temperature from single-crystal Raman and IR spectra and from powder X-ray diffraction using diamond anvil cells under quasi-hydrostatic conditions in a helium pressure-transmitting medium. Phase transformation and subsequent peak broadening (partial amorphization) observed from the Raman and IR spectra of Ca(OH)₂ occurred at lower pressures than those of Ca(OD)₂. In contrast, no isotope effect was found on the volume and axial compressions observed from powder X-ray diffraction patterns. X-ray diffraction lines attributable to the high-pressure phase remained up to 28.5 GPa, suggesting no total amorphization in a helium pressure medium within the examined pressure region. These results suggest that the H–D isotope effect is engendered in the local environment surrounding H(D) atoms. Moreover, the ratio of sample-to-methanol–ethanol pressure medium (i.e., packing density) in the sample chamber had a significant effect on the increase in the half widths of the diffraction lines, even at pressures below the hydrostatic limit of the pressure medium.     

Naturally occurring radionuclides and rare earth elements in weathered Japanese soil samples

The activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra and ²²⁸Ac in weathered Japanese soils from two selected prefectures have been measured using a γ-ray spectroscopy system with high purity germanium detector. The uranium, thorium, and rare earth elements (REEs) concentrations were determined from the same soil samples using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). For example, granitic rocks contain higher amounts of U, Th, and light REEs compared to other igneous rocks such as basalt and andesites. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the interaction between REEs and nature of soils since soils are complex heterogeneous mixture of organic and inorganic solids, water, and gases. In this paper, we will discuss about distribution pattern of ²³⁸U and ²³²Th along with REEs in soil samples of weathered acid rock (granite) collected from two prefectures of Japan: Hiroshima and Miyagi.     

Formation mechanism of the Weddell Sea Polynya and the impact on the global abyssal ocean

An experiment using a global ocean–ice model with an interannual forcing data set was conducted to understand the variability in the Southern Ocean. A winter-persisting polynya in the Weddell Sea (the Weddell Polynya, WP) was simulated. The process of WP breaking out after no-WP years was explored using the successive WPs found in the late 1950s. The results suggested that the anomalously warm deep water, saline surface layer, and a cyclonic wind stress over the Maud polynya region in early winter are essential for the surface layer to be dense enough to trigger deep convections which maintain a winter-persisting polynya; also, the reanalyzed surface air temperature (SAT) over the observed polynya region is too high for an ocean–ice model’s bulk formula to yield sufficient upward heat fluxes to induce WP formation. Therefore the Weddell Polynya, a series of WPs observed from satellite in the mid-1970s, is reproduced by replacing the SAT with a climatological one. Subsequent to the successive WP events, density anomalies excited in the Weddell Sea propagate northward in the Atlantic deep basins. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is enhanced through the increased meridional density gradient. The enhanced ACC and its meandering over the abyssal ridges excite buoyancy anomalies near the bottom at the southwestern end of the South Pacific basin. The buoyancy signals propagate northward and eventually arrive in the northern North Pacific.