Exploring the geophysical and socio-economic determinants of land cover changes in Eastern Mau forest reserve and Lake Nakuru drainage basin,Kenya

Understanding the linkages between the biogeophysical and socio-economic processes that operate at different spatial and temporal scales is important for land cover change mitigation. This study analysed several factors that explained the forest-shrubland conversions, grassland conversions and cropland expansions in Lake Nakuru drainage basin and Eastern Mau forest reserve in Kenya from 1985 to 2011. Logistic regression models were developed using a combination of remote sensing-based land cover data, and geographical information systems-based geophysical and socio-economic data (i.e., temperature, rainfall, elevation, slope, aspect, topographic wetness, curvature, soil pH, soil cation exchange capacity (CEC), population density and distance to road, river and town). The results were varied; for example, in the period 1985–2000, forest-shrubland conversions were linked to distance to road), distance to town, soil pH, soil CEC, rainfall, topographic wetness, curvature and aspect. The same factors, in addition to slope and distance to river, also determined the likelihood of forest-shrubland conversions in the period 2000–2011. Overall, significance of the determining factors varied depending on time and nature of land cover change. For example, topographical factors influenced grassland conversions in the period 1985–2000, while soil-related factors did not. But in the period 2000–2011, the converse was true. Therefore, policies for restoration, conservation and sustainable management of critical ecosystems (e.g., forests) should be spatially targeted and time-specific. These results broaden our knowledge of land cover dynamics in this locality, and provide a base for effective environmental policy formulation, planning and management.     

Seasonal and areal temperature variation in lake Wakatipu (note)

Summer isotherms in Lake Wakatipu (maximum depth 380 m) show clear stratification and develop a downslope to the south or downwind end. The thermocline reaches a maximum depth of 150 m and the major part of seasonal temperature variation occurs above 130 m.     

Retention of uranium in complexly altered zircon: An example from Bancroft,Ontario

Mesoproterozoic (~ 1050 Ma; Stenian) zircon crystals from the Saranac Prospect, Bancroft, Ontario, contain up to ~ 1 wt.% U and ~ 0.15 wt.% Th and, correspondingly, they are for the most part extensively radiation-damaged (calculated total α-doses 2.3?35.3 × 10¹⁸/g). The crystals show textures of complex, intense chemical alteration that is attributed to multiple, low-T replacement events along fluid-controlled reaction fronts. Centers of crystals appear totally replaced; the primary zoning is virtually erased and the material has high porosity and numerous inclusions. Interior regions surrounding the central reworked areas still exhibit primary igneous-type zoning; in those regions the alteration emanates from fractures and then follows the more radiation-damaged growth zones. Altered areas are typically recognized by their high porosity, low BSE intensity, and deficient analytical totals. Those regions often have lost a significant fraction of their radiogenic Pb. They are in general somewhat depleted in Zr, Si, and U, and are notably enriched in Ca and Fe. Element maps reveal elevated concentrations of Al and Y within filled fractures. Our observations indicate that the fluid-driven ion exchange is mainly controlled by the accessibility of micro-areas with elevated levels of radiation damage to transporting fluids via “fast pathways”. Most importantly, there is apparent Zr?Si?U equilibrium between initially existing and newly formed zircon. The retention of U after the chemical replacement (94 ± 14% relative to the original U content in the respective zones) does not significantly fall below the retention of two major cations Zr (95 ± 4%) and Si (95 ± 2%). In spite of the partially extreme hydrothermal alteration overprinting, the original U zoning in the crystals is well preserved. These observations suggest that preferential chemical leaching of U from zircon is clearly not a general feature of this mineral. This in turn seems to question the general validity of hydrothermal experiments to low-T, fluid-driven alteration of zircon in geological environments. The observed apparent immobility of U may affect the interpretation of U?Pb discordance in zircon, and the performance assessment of this mineral as potential waste form for actinides.     

Development of a palaeotsunami database for New Zealand

A New Zealand palaeotsunami database has been developed. The philosophy has been to include as much tsunami-related data as possible. Most of the events recorded are true palaeotsunamis that occurred prior to the historical record or have no written observations. Some are hybrids that are in some manner poorly recorded historical events. Data include physical evidence from geological, archaeological and geomorphological sources and cultural information from anthropological research and prehistorical Māori oral recordings. Each line of data represents a summary of one piece of evidence containing key details listed under a series of headings. The estimated veracity of each line item is based upon the sum of the information contained in the linked reference(s). The palaeotsunami database contains approximately 300 line items and describes between 35 and 40 palaeotsunamis. This wealth of data helps to improve our understanding of tsunami sources, event its magnitude and frequency.     

The role of atmosphere feedbacks during ENSO in the CMIP3 models. Part II: using AMIP runs to understand the heat flux feedback mechanisms

Several studies using ocean?Catmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the atmospheric component plays a dominant role in the modelled El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). To help elucidate these findings, the two main atmosphere feedbacks relevant to ENSO, the Bjerknes positive feedback (??) and the heat flux negative feedback (??), are here analysed in nine AMIP runs of the CMIP3 multimodel dataset. We find that these models generally have improved feedbacks compared to the coupled runs which were analysed in part I of this study. The Bjerknes feedback,???, is increased in most AMIP runs compared to the coupled run counterparts, and exhibits both positive and negative biases with respect to ERA40. As in the coupled runs, the shortwave and latent heat flux feedbacks are the two dominant components of ?? in the AMIP runs. We investigate the mechanisms behind these two important feedbacks, in particular focusing on the strong 1997?C1998 El Ni?o. Biases in the shortwave flux feedback, ?? _SW, are the main source of model uncertainty in ??. Most models do not successfully represent the negative ??_SW in the East Pacific, primarily due to an overly strong low-cloud positive feedback in the far eastern Pacific. Biases in the cloud response to dynamical changes dominate the modelled ?? _SW biases, though errors in the large-scale circulation response to sea surface temperature (SST) forcing also play a role. Analysis of the cloud radiative forcing in the East Pacific reveals model biases in low cloud amount and optical thickness which may affect ?? _SW. We further show that the negative latent heat flux feedback, ?? _LH, exhibits less diversity than ?? _SW and is primarily driven by variations in the near-surface specific humidity difference. However, biases in both the near-surface wind speed and humidity response to SST forcing can explain the inter-model ??_LH differences.