Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation

Significant advances in flood inundation modelling have been made in the last decade through the use of a new generation of 2D hydraulic numerical models. These offer the potential to predict the local pattern and timing of flood depth and velocity, enabling informed flood risk zoning and improved emergency planning. With the availability of high resolution DEMs derived from airborne lidar, these models can theoretically now be routinely parameterized to represent considerable topographic complexity, even in urban areas where the potential exists to represent flows at the scale of individual buildings. Currently, however, computational constraints on conventional finite element and volume codes typically require model discretization at scales well below those achievable with lidar and are thus unable to make optimal use of this emerging data stream.In this paper we review two strategies that attempt to address this mismatch between model and data resolution in an effort to improve urban flood forecasts. The first of these strives for a solution by simplifying the mathematical formulation of the numerical model by using a computationally efficient 2D raster storage cell approach coupled to a 1D channel model. This parsimonious model structure enables simulations over large model domains offering the opportunity to employ a topographic discretization strategy which explicitly represents the built environment. The second approach seeks to further reduce the computational overhead of this raster method by employing a subgrid parameterization to represent the effect of buildings and micro-relief on flow pathways and floodplain storage. This multi-scale methodology enables highly efficient model applications at coarse spatial resolutions while retaining information about the complex geometry of the built environment.These two strategies are evaluated through numerical experiments designed to reconstruct a flood in the small town of Linton in southern England, which occurred in response to a 1 in 250 year rainfall event in October 2001. Results from both approaches are encouraging, with the spatial pattern of inundation and flood wave propagation matching observations well. Both show significant advantages over a coarse resolution model without subgrid parameterisation, particularly in terms of their ability to reproduce both hydrograph and inundation depth measurements simultaneously, without need for recalibration. The subgrid parameterization is shown to achieve this without contributing significant computational complexity and reduces model run-times by an order of magnitude.     

A spatial perspective for predicting enrollment in a regional pharmacy school

Having the ability to predict enrollment is an important task for any school’s recruiting team. The purpose of this study was to identify significant factors that can be used to predict the spatial distribution of enrollments. As a case study, we used East Tennessee State University (ETSU) pharmacy school, a regional pharmacy school located in the Appalachian Mountains. Through the application of a negative binomial regression model, we found that the most important indicators of enrollment volume for the ETSU pharmacy school were Euclidean distance, probability (based on competing pharmacy schools’ prestige, driving distance between schools and home and tuition costs), and the natural barrier of the Appalachian Mountains. Using these factors, together with other control variables, we successfully predicted the spatial distribution of enrollments for ETSU pharmacy school. Interestingly, gender also surfaced as a variable for predicting the pharmacy school’s enrollment. We found female students are more sensitive to the geographic proximity of home to school.     

The effects of organic removal treatment on the integrity of δ<Superscript>18</Superscript>O measurements from biogenic silica

Prior to oxygen isotope analysis of biogenic silica by fluorination techniques, sediments must be cleaned of all organic compounds. Despite the expanding volume of research utilising oxygen isotope ratios in biogenic silica in palaeoclimatology, very little is known about the effects of different standard preparation methods for the removal of organic matter on the isotope values. Here we compare a number of methods for the removal of organic matter in order to assess their effectiveness and influence on subsequent isotope measurements. Not all the methods described here effectively removed organic matter, the best treatments were H₂O₂ and ignition in air at 550°C. Ignition in air at 950°C, and heating in vacuum at 250 and 450°C results in marked alteration of isotope values, whereas use of hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), nitric acid (HNO₃) and plasma ashing have little or no effect, within the bounds of analytical error. Ignition in air at 550°C was the most effective technique, and induced no alteration of δ¹⁸O_silica, but practical constraints may limit the application of this method routinely. Our findings indicate that considerable caution is required when preparing sediment for isotope analysis of biogenic silica.     

Defining shore platform boundaries using airborne laser scan data: a preliminary investigation

As an initial evaluation of the potential of digital elevation models (DEMs) and geographic information systems (GISs) for geomorphic characterization of rocky shorelines, airborne laser scan (ALS) data have been used to characterize shore platforms around Shag Point, southeastern New Zealand. The platforms have been characterized using field‐based techniques in previously published research, and therefore offer an ideal site for evaluation purposes. The main challenge involved the delineation of the shore platform area in terms of landward and seaward extents. The cliff top and landward edge of the shore platform was readily mapped, whereas the seaward edge of platforms was mapped with lesser precision due to difficulties associated with tidal inundation and the interference of wave action and surface water. In the central region of the study area (～0·1 km²) higher platform elevations and dense point cloud data enabled the generation of a high‐resolution (1 m) DEM. In analysing the DEM, ALS offered an advantage over the previous field survey in respect of the ability to assess continuous topography in plan‐view. The extent and form of two distinctive erosional surfaces is clearly apparent and was revealed through classifications based on slope and elevation. The spatial continuity of the upper surface implies that, in addition to the role of rock structure described in previous work, sea level and wave exposure may have been important factors in the generation and preservation of platform morphology at Shag Point. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unravelling the pre-Variscan evolution of the Habach terrane (Tauern Window, Austria) by U-Pb SHRIMP zircon data

The U-Pb SHRIMP age determinations of zircons from the Habach terrane (Tauern Window, Austria) reveal a complex evolution of this basement unit, which is exposed in the Penninic domain of the Alpine orogen. The oldest components are found in zircons of a metamorphosed granitoid clast, of a migmatitic leucosome, and of a meta-rhyolitic (Variscan) tuff which bear cores of Archean age. The U-Pb ages of discordant zircon cores of the same rocks range between 540 and 520 Ma. It is assumed that the latter zircons were originally also of Archean origin and suffered severe lead loss, whilst being incorporated into Early-Cambrian volcanic arc magmas. The provenance region of the Archean (2.64-2.06 Ga) zircons is assumed to be a terrane of Gondwana affinity: i.e., the West African craton (Hoggar Shield, Reguibat Shield). The Caledonian metamorphism left a pervasive structural imprint in amphibolite facies on rocks of the Habach terrane; it is postdated by discordant zircons of a migmatitic leucosome at <440 Ma (presumably ca. 420 Ma). Alpine and Variscan upper greenschist- to amphibolite-facies conditions caused partial lead loss in zircons of a muscovite gneiss ('white schist') only, where extensive fluid flow and brittle deformation due to its position near a nappe-sole thrust enhanced the grains' susceptibility to isotopic disturbance. The Habach terrane - an active continental margin with ensialic back-arc development - showed subduction-induced magmatic activity approx. between 550 and 507 Ma. Back-arc diorites and arc basalts were intruded by ultramafic sills and subsequently by small patches of mantle-dominated unaltered and (in the vicinity of a major tungsten deposit) altered granitoids. Fore-arc (shales) and back-arc (greywackes, cherts) basin sediments as well as arc and back-arc magmatites were not only nappe-stacked by the Caledonian compressional regime closing the presumably narrow oceanic back-arc basin and squeezing mafic to ultramafic cumulates out of high-level magma chambers (496-482 Ma). It also induced uplift and erosion of deeply rooted crystalline complexes and triggered the development of a successor basin filled with predominantly clastic greywacke-arkosic sediments. The study demonstrates that the basement rocks exposed in the Habach terrane might be the 'missing link' between similar units of the more westerly positioned External domain (i.e., Aar, Aiguilles Rouges, Mont Blanc) and the Austroalpine domain to the east (Oetztal, Silvretta).     

A determination of source properties of large intraplate earthquakes in Alaska

Historically, large and potentially hazardous earthquakes have occurred within the interior of Alaska. However, most have not been adequately studied using modern methods of waveform modeling. The 22 July 1937, 16 October 1947, and 7 April 1958 earthquakes are three of the largest events known to have occurred within central Alaska (M _s =7.3,M _s =7.2 andM _s =7.3, respectively). We analyzed teleseismic body waves to gain information about the focal parameters of these events. In order to deconvolve the source time functions from teleseismic records, we first attempted to improve upon the published focal mechanisms for each event. Synthetic seismograms were computed for different source parameters, using the reflectivity method. A search was completed which compared the hand-digitized data with a suite of synthetic traces covering the complete parameter space of strike, dip, and slip direction. In this way, the focal mechanism showing the maximum correlation between the observed and calculated traces was found. Source time functions, i.e., the moment release as a function of time, were then deconvolved from teleseismic records for the three historical earthquakes, using the focal mechanisms which best fit the data. From these deconvolutions, we also recovered the depth of the events and their seismic moments. The earthquakes were all found to have a shallow foci, with depths of less than 10 km.The 1937 earthquake occurred within a northeast-southwest band of seismicity termed the Salcha seismic zone (SSZ). We confirm the previously published focal mechanism, indicating strike-slip faulting, with one focal plane parallel to the SSZ which was interpreted as the fault plane. Assuming a unilateral fault model and a reasonable rupture velocity of between 2 and 3 km/s, the 21 second rupture duration for this event indicates that all of the 65 km long SSZ may have ruptured during this event. The 1947 event, located to the south of the northwest-southeast trending Fairbanks seismic zone, was found to have a duration of about 11 seconds, thus indicating a rupture length of up to 30 km. The rupture duration of the 1958 earthquake, which occurred near the town of Huslia, approximately 400 km ENE of Fairbanks, was found to be about 9 seconds. This gives a rupture length consistent with the observed damage, an area of 16 km by 64 km.     

Melting and phase relations in the plane tholeiite-lherzolite-nepheline basanite to 40 kilobars with geological implications

Six crystalline mixtures, picrite, olivine-rich tholeiite, nepheline basanite, alkali picrite, olivine-rich basanite, and olivine-rich alkali basalt were recrystallized at pressures to 40 kb, and the phase equilibria and sequences of phases in natural basaltic and peridotitic rocks were investigated.The picrite was recrystallized along the solidus to the assemblages (1) olivine+orthopyroxene+ clinopyroxene +plagioclase+spinel below 13 kb, (2) olivine+orthopyroxene+clinopyroxene+spinel between 13 kb and 18 kb, (3) olivine+orthopyroxene+clinopyroxene+ garnet+spinel between 18 kb and 26 kb, and (4) olivine+clinopyroxene+garnet above 26 kb. The solidus temperature at 1 atm is slightly below 1,100° and rises to 1,320° at 20 kb and 1,570° at 40 kb. Olivine is the primary phase crystallizing from the melt at all pressures to 40 kb.The olivine-rich tholeiite was recrystallized along the solidus into the assemblages (1) olivine+ clinopyroxene+plagioclase+spinel below 13 kb, (2) clinopyroxene+orthopyroxene+ spinel between 13 kb and 18 kb, (3) clinopyroxene+garnet+spinel above 18 kb. The solidus temperature is slightly below 1,100° at 1 atm, 1,370° at 20 kb, and 1,590° at 40 kb. The primary phase is olivine below 20 kb but is orthopyroxene at 40 kb.In the nepheline basanite, olivine is the primary phase below 14 kb, but clinopyroxene is the first phase to appear above 14 kb. In the alkali-picrite the primary phase is olivine to 40 kb. In the olivine-rich basanite, olivine is the primary phase below 35 kb and garnet is the primary phase above 35 kb. In the olivine-rich alkali basalt the primary phase is olivine below 20 kb and is garnet at 40 kb.Mineral assemblages in a granite-basalt-peridotite join are summarized according to reported experimental data on natural rocks. The solidus of mafic rock is approximately given by T=12.5 P _Kb+1,050°. With increasing pressure along the solidus, olivine disappears by reaction with plagioclase at 9 kb in mafic rocks and plagioclase disappears by reaction with olivine at 13 kb in ultramafic rocks. Plagioclase disappears at around 22 kb in mafic rocks, but it persists to higher pressure in acidic rocks. Garnet appears at somewhat above 18 kb in acidic rocks, at 17 kb in mafic rocks, and at 22 kb in ultramafic rocks.The subsolidus equilibrium curves of the reactions are extrapolated according to equilibrium curves of related reactions in simple systems. The pyroxene-hornfels and sanidinite facies is the lowest pressure mineral facies. The pyroxene-granulite facies is an intermediate low pressure mineral facies in which olivine and plagioclase are incompatible and garnet is absent in mafic rocks. The low pressure boundary is at 7.5 kb at 750° C and at 9.5 kb at 1,150° C. The high pressure boundary is 8.0 kb at 750° C and 15.0 kb at 1,150° C. The garnet-granulite facies is an intermediate high pressure facies and is characterized by coexisting garnet and plagioclase in mafic rocks. The upper boundary is at 10.3 kb at 750° C and 18.0 kb at 1,150° C. The eclogite facies is the highest pressure mineral facies, in which jadeite-rich clinopyroxene is stable.Compositions of minerals in natural rocks of the granulite facies and the eclogite facies are considered. Clinopyroxenes in the granulite-facies rocks have smaller jadeite-Tschermak's molecule ratios and higher amounts of Tschermak's molecule than clinopyroxenes in the eclogite-facies rocks. The distribution coefficients of Mg between orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene are normally in the range of 0.5–0.6 in metamorphic rocks in the granulite facies. The distribution coefficients of Mg between garnet and clinopyroxene suggest increasing crystallization temperature of the rocks in the following order: eclogite in glaucophane schist, eclogite and granulite in gneissic terrain, garnet peridotite, and peridotite nodules in kimberlite.Temperatures near the bottom of the crust in orogenic zones characterized by kyanitesillimanite metamorpbism are estimated from the mineral assemblages of metamorphic rocks in Precambrian shields to be about 700° C at 7 kb and 800° C at 9 kb, although heat-flow data suggest that the bottom of Precambrian shield areas is about 400° C and the eclogite facies is stable.The composition of liquid which is in equilibrium with peridotite is estimated to be close to tholeiite basalt at the surface pressure and to be picrite at around 30 kb. The liquid composition becomes poorer in normative olivine with decreasing pressure and temperature.During crystallization at high pressure, olivine and orthopyroxene react with liquid to form clinopyroxene, and a discontinuous reaction series, olivine orthopyroxene clinopyroxene is suggested. By fractional crystallization of pyroxenes the liquid will become poorer in SiO₂. Therefore, if liquid formed by partial melting of peridotite in the mantle slowly rises maintaining equilibrium with the surrounding peridotite, the liquid will become poorer in MgO by crystallization of olivine, and tholeiite basalt magma will arrive at the surface. On the other hand, if the liquid undergoes fractional crystallization in the mantle, the liquid may change in composition to alkali-basalt magma and alkali-basalt volcanism may be seen at a late stage of volcanic activity.Publication No. 681, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles.     

Geostatistics and Bayesian updating for transmissivity estimation in a multiaquifer system in Manitoba,Canada

In ground water flow and transport modeling, the heterogeneous nature of porous media has a considerable effect on the resulting flow and solute transport. Some method of generating the heterogeneous field from a limited dataset of uncertain measurements is required. Bayesian updating is one method that interpolates from an uncertain dataset using the statistics of the underlying probability distribution function. In this paper, Bayesian updating was used to determine the heterogeneous natural log transmissivity field for a carbonate and a sandstone aquifer in southern Manitoba. It was determined that the transmissivity in m²/sec followed a natural log normal distribution for both aquifers with a mean of -7.2 and - 8.0 for the carbonate and sandstone aquifers, respectively. The variograms were calculated using an estimator developed by Li and Lake (1994). Fractal nature was not evident in the variogram from either aquifer. The Bayesian updating heterogeneous field provided good results even in cases where little data was available. A large transmissivity zone in the sandstone aquifer was created by the Bayesian procedure, which is not a reflection of any deterministic consideration, but is a natural outcome of updating a prior probability distribution function with observations. The statistical model returns a result that is very reasonable; that is homogeneous in regions where little or no information is available to alter an initial state. No long range correlation trends or fractal behavior of the log-transmissivity field was observed in either aquifer over a distance of about 300 km.     

Boulders of MIS 5 age deposited by a tsunami on the coast of Otago, New Zealand

A series of elevated imbricated boulders were investigated on the Otago coastline, southeast New Zealand, through field surveying and optical luminescence dating. By using established hydrodynamic relationships of sediment transport the energy required to move the clasts was calculated and compared to the historic record of marine inundations of that coast. The boulders are platy in shape and are over 2 m long in some cases, and are sourced from a locally outcropping conglomerate unit which appears to be the only lithology on this section of coast that erodes to produce clasts of this size. It is estimated that the boulders were deposited by a tsunami between 2 and 3 m high during the latter part of Marine Isotope Stage 5. They therefore represent the first pre-Holocene tsunami deposit and one composed of large boulders described on the New Zealand coastline.