A Survey of Techniques for Predicting Earthquake Ground Motions for Engineering Purposes

Over the past four or five decades many advances have been made in earthquake ground-motion prediction and a variety of procedures have been proposed. Some of these procedures are based on explicit physical models of the earthquake source, travel-path and recording site while others lack a strong physical basis and seek only to replicate observations. In addition, there are a number of hybrid methods that seek to combine benefits of different approaches. The various techniques proposed have their adherents and some of them are extensively used to estimate ground motions for engineering design purposes and in seismic hazard research. These methods all have their own advantages and limitations that are not often discussed by their proponents. The purposes of this article are to: summarise existing methods and the most important references, provide a family tree showing the connections between different methods and, most importantly, to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

地下水气体组分的潮汐变化

我们观察了日本中部Omaezaki地区地下水气体组分时间序列数据的周期性变化,Omaezaki是日本地震预报目录中即将到来的Tokai地震前兆信号观察的重要地区.我们已经开始在一口100 m深的井中对地下水中气体组分进行持续监测.     

Curvature derived from LiDAR digital elevation models as simple indicators of debris-flow susceptibility

To mitigate the damage caused by debris flows resulting from heavy precipitation and to aid in evacuation plan preparation, areas at risk should be mapped on a scale appropriate for affected individuals and communities. We tested the effectiveness of simply identifying debris-flow hazards through automated derivation of surface curvatures using LiDAR digital elevation models. We achieved useful correspondence between plan curvatures and areas of existing debris-flow damage in two localities in Japan using the analysis of digital elevation models(DEMs). We found that plan curvatures derived from 10 m DEMs may be useful to indicate areas that are susceptible to debris flow in mountainous areas. In residential areas located on gentle sloping debris flow fans, the greatest damage to houses was found to be located in the elongated depressions that are connected to mountain stream valleys. Plan curvaturederived from 5 m DEM was the most sensitive indicators for susceptibility to debris flows.     

Detection of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) ofPenaeus chinensis by in situ hybridization

White Spot Syndrome Virus (WSSV) was purified from hemolymph of infected shrimp. After nucleic acid extraction from the purified virus particles, EcoR I-digested fragments of the WSSV genome were cloned; three of these fragments were used as non-radioactive probes labeled with DIG-11-dUTP. The probes hybridized in situ, with sections located in the nuclei of all WSSV-infected tissues. The virus was detected in the gill, stomach, epidermis, and connective tissue and so on, but not detected in healthy shrimp tissues and epithelial cells of hepatopancreatic tubules of diseased shrimp. This work was supported by SRF for ROCS, SEM and the National 863 Project (Grant 819-Q-08) and Project under major State Basic Research Development Program (Grant G1999012002).     

Al-related centers in relation to γ-irradiation

 The charge compensation problem for Si−Al substitution in Brazilian natural quartz is investigated in relation to γ-irradiation darkening response and impurity contents evaluated by atomic absorption spectrometry and infrared absorption spectroscopy. Al⁺³ in as-grown natural quartz is compensated by Li⁺ and H⁺ to form Al−Li and Al−OH centers. The content ratios (Al−Li)/(Al−OH) and Li/(broad OH band) depend on the environmental conditions of crystal growth and influence the formation of Al-hole centers due to γ-irradiation. Al−OH centers are the dominant Al-related centers in quartz from hydrothermal origin while Al−Li centers are dominant for that of pegmatitic origin. The formation of Al-hole centers is little in quartz with a high content of broad OH band which is from low temperature hydrothermal origin. Received May 23, 1995 / Revised, accepted May 8, 1996     

Development of composite planar fabric in mylonites along the Median Tectonic Line, southwest Japan

Abstract Mylonites along the Median Tectonic Line, southwest Japan commonly contain shear bands comprising S(-C)-Ss fabrics. This paper stresses the lithologic control on the orientation, dimension and development of shear bands by comparing the microstructure of the shear bands in different rock types (P mylonites, F mylonites, micaceous phyllonite and quartzose phyllonite). There is no significant change of the α angles (average 21–24°) between Ss and S toward the centre of the shear zone (viz. increasing the intensity of mylonitization) and it is different from the S-C relationship in a narrow sense.
The generation of the composite planar fabric can be classified into four different strain partitioning models: S only type without any slip surface (model A); S-C type (model B); S-Ss type with Ss-slip precedence (model C), and S-Ss type with S-slip precedence (model D). Model C is proposed in this paper and is similar to the model for the generation of Riedel shears in brittle shear zones. An unstable slip between porphyroclasts and the matrix during ductile flow can easily initiate shear bands. Formation of a composite planar fabric is initiated according to model A, followed by model C in conditions of increasing strain, and then model D when the angle between S and the shear zone boundary becomes small enough (α/2 = 10°) to produce S-slip. Thus the generation of the shear bands probably begins in the early stages of shear deformation and continues until the latest stages.     

Ventilation revealed by the observation of dissolved oxygen concentration south of the Kuroshio Extension during 2012–2013

From the moored buoy observation at \(33.9^{\circ }\)N, \(144.9^{\circ }\)E south of the Kuroshio Extension (KE), we obtained Eulerian time series of dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) at 200, 400, and 600 m depths from June 2012 to March 2013. We observed ventilation by meso- and submesoscale processes that transport water southward across the KE jet. First, the cyclonic mesoscale eddy in June 2012 substantially depressed DO at depths of 400 and 600 m but maintained DO at 200 m, suggesting near-surface lateral transport of high-DO water derived from the north of the KE. Second, subduction of high-DO (>230 \({\upmu }\)mol kg\(^{-1}\)) water to a depth of 600 m was observed from early February to March 2013, associated with a mesoscale/submesoscale meandering of the KE jet. In mid-March 2013, shipboard hydrographic data were collected where the water mass at the mooring site would be advected by the eastward current on the southern flank of the KE. Based on these data, the subduction event was identified as an intrusion of an anomalously thick water mass from approximately 400–900 dbar. Ventilation of the subtropical mode water at a depth of 200 m around a subsurface DO maximum layer was detected as a rapid rise in DO in January 2013. This occurred after a significant seasonal decrease in DO at a rate of \(-0.130 \pm 0.007\) \({\upmu }\)mol kg\(^{-1}\) day\(^{-1}\) from July to December 2012.     

Distribution of Scyllarid Phyllosoma Larvae (Crustacea: Decapoda: Scyllaridae) in the Kuroshio Subgyre

Using ichthyoplankton samples collected in the Kuroshio Subgyre during early summer cruises, we examined spatial distributions of scyllarid phyllosoma larvae in the Subgyre, particularly of the genus Scyllarus. The present study has two objectives: (1) to reveal species composition of Scyllarus phyllosoma larvae in the Kuroshio Subgyre, and (2) to examine larval recruitment of Scyllarus species as contrasted with that of Panulirus, particularly P. japonicus, the larval recruitment of which has been examined in detail. A total of 218 phyllosoma larvae collected in the present study belonged to two families (Palinuridae and Scyllaridae) representing 5 genera and 11 species. Phyllosoma larvae of two Scyllarus species (S. cultrifer and Scyllarus sp. c) were abundant among the collected larvae, and were found mainly in the following three regions located within the Kuroshio-Counter Current region south of Kuroshio Current: the water east of Okinawa Is., the water far east of Okinawa Is. (or far south of Shikoku Is.), and the water around Hachijojima Is. Larvae of each of the above two Scyllarus species collected in the three regions may belong to different populations: larvae collected in the water around Hachijojima Is. may come from their benthic populations along the Pacific coast of Honshu and Shikoku Is., central Japan, while larvae collected in the other two regions may come from their benthic populations of the Ryukyu Archipelago and Taiwan. Judging from their shorter larval period and current systems within the Kuroshio Subgyre, these Scyllarus larvae may be destined for death. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Inertial Instability of Arbitrarily Meandering Currents Governed by the Eccentrically Cyclogeostrophic Equation

Using natural coordinates, we have derived a criterion for the inertial instability of arbitrarily meandering currents. Such currents, governed by the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic equation, are adopted as the basic current field for the parcel method. We assume that any virtual displacement which is given to a water parcel moving in the basic field has no influence on this field. From the conservation of mechanical energy for a virtual displacement we derive an inertial instability frequency ω _m = [(f + 2u/r)Z]^0.5 for the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic current, where f is the Coriolis parameter, u the velocity (always positive), r the radius of curvature of a streamline (negative for an anticyclonic meander), and Z the vertical component of absolute vorticity. If ω _m ² is negative, the eccentrically cyclogeostrophic current becomes unstable. Although the conventional, centrifugal instability criterion, derived from the conservation of angular momentum in a circularly symmetric current field, has a certain meaning for a monopolar vortex, it contains a radial shear vorticity that is difficult to use in arbitrarily meandering currents. The new criterion ω _m ² contains a lateral shear vorticity that is applicable to arbitrarily meandering currents. Examining instabilities of concentric rings with radii of 50–100 km, we consider reasons why the anticyclonic supersolid rotation has been very much less frequently observed than the cyclonic supersolid rotation, despite a prediction of some common stability and a rapid change in radial velocity gradient for the former. Classifying eccentric streamlines into the large and small curvature-gradient types, we point out that the large-gradient curvature in anticyclonic rings is apt to be unstable. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.