Analysis of formation pressure test results in the Mount Elbert methane hydrate reservoir through numerical simulation

Targeting the methane hydrate (MH) bearing units C and D at the Mount Elbert prospect on the Alaska North Slope, four MDT (Modular Dynamic Formation Tester) tests were conducted in February 2007. The C2 MDT test was selected for history matching simulation in the MH Simulator Code Comparison Study. Through history matching simulation, the physical and chemical properties of the unit C were adjusted, which suggested the most likely reservoir properties of this unit. Based on these properties thus tuned, the numerical models replicating “Mount Elbert C2 zone like reservoir”, “PBU L-Pad like reservoir” and “PBU L-Pad down dip like reservoir” were constructed. The long term production performances of wells in these reservoirs were then forecasted assuming the MH dissociation and production by the methods of depressurization, combination of depressurization and wellbore heating, and hot water huff and puff. The predicted cumulative gas production ranges from 2.16 × 10⁶ m³/well to 8.22 × 10⁸ m³/well depending mainly on the initial temperature of the reservoir and on the production method.This paper describes the details of modeling and history matching simulation. This paper also presents the results of the examinations on the effects of reservoir properties on MH dissociation and production performances under the application of the depressurization and thermal methods.     

A Survey of Techniques for Predicting Earthquake Ground Motions for Engineering Purposes

Over the past four or five decades many advances have been made in earthquake ground-motion prediction and a variety of procedures have been proposed. Some of these procedures are based on explicit physical models of the earthquake source, travel-path and recording site while others lack a strong physical basis and seek only to replicate observations. In addition, there are a number of hybrid methods that seek to combine benefits of different approaches. The various techniques proposed have their adherents and some of them are extensively used to estimate ground motions for engineering design purposes and in seismic hazard research. These methods all have their own advantages and limitations that are not often discussed by their proponents. The purposes of this article are to: summarise existing methods and the most important references, provide a family tree showing the connections between different methods and, most importantly, to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method.

Long-Term Investigation of Spatio-Temporal Variations in Faunal Composition and Species Richness of Megabenthos in Ise Bay,Central Japan

Based on our long-term data from megabenthos sampling from 1993 to 2002 in Ise Bay, central Japan, we examined spatio-temporal variations in taxon composition, species richness and its distribution of megabenthos in the bay in relation to the occurrence of the oxygen-poor water (i.e. oxygen content less than 3 ppm) in bottom waters of the bay. A total of 261 species were identified including 6 cnidarians, 1 tentaculate, 5 annelids, 71 molluscs, 72 crustaceans, 16 echinoderms, 12 urochordates and 78 pisces. Of the most abundant 10 megabenthos species, the following 4 species of echinoderms made up more than the half of megabenthos biomass: Luidia quinaria, Echinocardium cordatum, Asterias amurensis and Astropecten scoparius. Species richness of megabenthos varied significantly between seasons and among stations. The severity and period of occurrence of the oxygen-poor water developing every summer play an important role in determining spatial distributions of species richness in the bay.     

Some features of jump in water temperature in aSargassum forest

To clarify the influence of aSargassum forest on water temperature distributions observations were made inside and outside aSargassum forest off the Nagata Shore on the northern Saiki Bay open to the Bungo Channel on the Pacific side of Kyushu, Japan. About sixty thermistor probes were deployed at 0.5 m depth intervals from the bottom to the sea surface at seven stations spaced at 50–80 m distances along two transects: one inside the forest and the other outside. Water temperature was measured at five minutes intervals from 6 to 9 August 1987 with thermistor probes. The spatial standing crop distribution of theSargassum forest along the transects was investigated. A water temperature jump of about 2°C, recorded during the observation, is probably caused by an intrusion of a warm water mass from the central Bungo Channel to Saiki Bay. The water temperature jump under theSargassum forest on the rough bottom with stones occurred one to two hours behind that outside the forest (sandy bed) although the distance between the transects inside and outside the forest was only 50–80 m. It is suggested that theSargassum forest and the rough bottom would prevent intruding warm water from smoothly replacing cold water due to resistance of theSargassum species and the bottom to a current.     

Depth distribution of radiolarians from the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, western Arctic

The depth distributions of the radiolarian fauna in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, marginal seas of the western Arctic Ocean, were examined quantitatively in depth-stratified plankton tows from 4 or 5 intervals above 500 m and in surface sediments from various depths between 163 and 2907 m. The radiolarian assemblage from the water column in September 2000 was dominated by Amphimelissa setosa and followed by the Actinomma boreale/leptoderma group, Pseudodictyophimus gracilipes and Spongotrochus glacialis. These species are related to the Arctic Surface Water shallower than 150 m. This assemblage is similar to that in the Greenland Sea relating to the ice edge, but did not contain typical Pacific radiolarians in spite of the flow of water of Pacific origin in this region. The living depth of Ceratocyrtis historicosa was restricted to the relatively warm water between 300 and 500 m corresponding to the upper Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW) originating from the Atlantic Ocean. Radiolarian assemblages in the surface sediments are similar to those in the plankton tows, except for common Cycladophora davisiana in sediment samples below 500 m. C. davisiana is probably a deep-water species adapted to the lower AIW or the Canadian Basin Deep Water ventilated from the shelves.     

Validity of sea surface temperature observed with the TRITON buoy under diurnal heating conditions

In order to investigate the validity of buoy-observed sea surface temperature (SST), we installed special instruments to measure near-surface ocean temperature on the TRITON buoy moored at 2.07°N, 138.06°E from 2 to 13 March 2004, in addition to a standard buoy sensor for the regular SST measurement at 1.5-m depth. Large diurnal SST variations were observed during this period, and the variations of the temperatures at about 0.3-m depth could be approximately simulated by a one-dimensional numerical model. However, there was a notable discrepancy between the buoy-observed 1.5-m-depth SST (SST_1.5m) and the corresponding model-simulated temperature only during the daytime when the diurnal rise was large. The evaluation of the heat balance in the sea surface layer showed that the diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m in these cases could not be accounted for by solar heating alone. We examined the depth of the SST_1.5m sensor and the near-surface temperature observed from a ship near the buoy, and came to the conclusion that the solar heating of the buoy hull and/or a disturbance in the temperature field around the buoy hull would contribute to the excessive diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m observed with the TRITON buoy. However, the temperature around the hull was not sufficiently homogenized, as suggested in a previous paper. For the diurnal rise of the SST_1.5m exceeding 0.5 K, the daytime buoy data became doubtful, through dynamics that remain to be clarified. A simple formula is proposed to correct the unexpected diurnal amplitude of the buoy SST_1.5m.     

Simplified evaluation for swelling characteristics of bentonites

Bentonite is currently planned to be used as buffer and backfill materials for repositories of high-level nuclear waste because these materials must have the swelling characteristics to seal the waste. In the design for buffer and backfill materials, we must choose the adequate bentonite among many kinds of bentonite in the world. The database of the swelling characteristics of various bentonites and its evaluation will be available when we will select the adequate bentonite. For this purpose, this study performed the laboratory tests on the swelling pressure and swelling deformation of four kinds of bentonite produced in Japan and the United States. These bentonites have different physicochemical properties. This study investigated the characteristics of swelling pressure and swelling deformation from the viewpoint of the physicochemical properties of each bentonite. Furthermore, this study also proposed the simplified evaluation of swelling characteristics of various bentonites on the basis of microscopic analysis.     

地下水气体组分的潮汐变化

我们观察了日本中部Omaezaki地区地下水气体组分时间序列数据的周期性变化,Omaezaki是日本地震预报目录中即将到来的Tokai地震前兆信号观察的重要地区.我们已经开始在一口100 m深的井中对地下水中气体组分进行持续监测.     

Validation and Improvement of Satellite-Derived Surface Solar Radiation over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

The purpose of this study is to validate and improve satellite-derived downward surface shortwave radiation (DSSR) over the northwestern Pacific Ocean using abundant in situ data. The DSSR derivation model used here assumes that the reduction of solar radiation by clouds is proportional to the product of satellite-measured albedo and a cloud attenuation coefficient. DSSR is calculated from Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5/Visible Infrared Spin-Scan Radiometer data in 0.05° × 0.05° grids. The authors first compare the satellite DSSR derived with a cloud attenuation coefficient table determined in past research with in situ values. Although the hourly satellite DSSR agrees well with land in situ values in Japan, it has a bias of +13∼+34 W/m² over the ocean and the bias is especially large in the low latitudes. The authors then improve the coefficient table using the ocean in situ data. Usage of the new table successfully reduces the bias of the satellite DSSR over the ocean. The cloud attenuation coefficient for low-albedo cases over the ocean needs to be larger in the low latitudes than past research has indicated. Daily and hourly DSSR can be evaluated from the satellite data with RMS errors of 11–14% and 30–33%, respectively, over a wide region of the ocean by this model. It is also shown that the cloud attenuation coefficient over land needs to be smaller than over the ocean because the effect of the radiation reflected by the land surface cannot be ignored.     

A method of simultaneous analysis of wind and temperature profile data over the water surface by use of the method of least squares

Priestley’s 1959 discussion concerning the estimations of momentum flux and of heat flux from profile observations of wind and temperature, stating that the closeness of the curve fitting is deceptive, is first critically re-examined. Then a method is proposed to estimate vertical flux of momentum and heat over the water surface, from the combined data of of wind speed and temperature are assumed to have similar log-linear profiles, and the most probable profiles are determined by applying the method of least squares simultaneously to wind and temperature data. Consequently, the most probable values of vertical flux of momentum and heat may be estimated to satisfy as much as possible observed data of both wind and temperature simultaneously. The coefficient of the linear term of the log-linear profile, which is treated as an indeterminate coefficient in this method, may be determined from each observed data as a function of stability length. By tentatively applying the method to Rider’s 1954 data it is found that the coefficient shows a characteristic behavior with the stability length.