Bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation under changing environment: case study in catchments of the Loess Plateau,China

Floods have changed in a complex manner, triggered by the changing environment (i.e., intensified human activities and global warming). Hence, for better flood control and mitigation in the future, bivariate frequency analysis of flood and extreme precipitation events is of great necessity to be performed within the context of changing environment. Given this, in this paper, the Pettitt test and wavelet coherence transform analysis are used in combination to identify the period with transformed flood-generating mechanism. Subsequently, the primary and secondary return periods of annual maximum flood (AMF) discharge and extreme precipitation (Pr) during the identified period are derived based on the copula. Meanwhile, the conditional probability of occurring different flood discharge magnitudes under various extreme precipitation scenarios are estimated using the joint dependence structure between AMF and Pr. Moreover, Monte Carlo-based algorithm is performed to evaluate the uncertainties of the above copula-based analyses robustly. Two catchments located on the Loess plateau are selected as study regions, which are Weihe River Basin (WRB) and Jinghe River Basin (JRB). Results indicate that: (1) the 1994–2014 and 1981–2014 are identified as periods with transformed flood-generating mechanism in the WRB and JRB, respectively; (2) the primary and secondary return periods for AMF and Pr are examined. Furthermore, chance of occurring different AMF under varying Pr scenarios also be elucidated according to the joint distribution of AMF and Pr. Despite these, one thing to notice is that the associate uncertainties are considerable, thus greatly challenges measures of future flood mitigation. Results of this study offer technical reference for copula-based frequency analysis under changing environment at regional and global scales.     

Time-lag effects of vegetation responses to soil moisture evolution: a case study in the Xijiang basin in South China

The time-lag effects of droughts on vegetation responses vary significantly across a large-scale river basin. The spatio-temporal response characteristics obtained are important for decision making processes on the allocation and transportation of regional water resources in mitigating drought impacts. Here we consider the Xijiang (West River) basin in South China as a case study, which has experienced severe drought events since the beginning of the 21st century. A threshold level approach is employed to identify the major drought events over the basin in the first decade of this century. The vegetation responses to land soil water evolution are examined, particularly for the severe drought events occurred. The time-lag effects of the vegetation responses within the basin range within 0–96 days. The lower reaches of the headwater sub-basins in the west part of the Xijiang basin are identified as the regions with short time-lag effects. The enhanced vegetation index (EVI) shows consistent responses to the soil water evolution in conjunction with the climate aridity in this area, which is the drought-vulnerable area in the Xijiang basin.     

A geostatistical protocol to optimize spatial sampling of domestic drinking water supplies in remote environments

This paper deals with the design of optimal spatial sampling of water quality variables in remote regions, where logistics are complicated and the optimization of monitoring networks may be critical to maximize the effectiveness of human and material resources. A methodology that combines the probability of exceeding some particular thresholds with a measurement of the information provided by each pair of experimental points has been introduced. This network optimization concept, where the basic unit of information is not a single spatial location but a pair of spatial locations, is used to emphasize the locations with the greatest information, which are those at the border of the phenomenon (for example contamination or a quality variable exceeding a given threshold), that is, where the variable at one of the locations in the pair is above the threshold value and the other is below the threshold. The methodology is illustrated with a case of optimizing the monitoring network by optimal selection of the subset that best describes the information provided by an exhaustive survey done at a given moment in time but which cannot be repeated systematically due to time or economic constrains.     

Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.     

Uncertainty analysis of urban sewer system using spatial simulation of radar rainfall fields: New York City case study

The goal of this study is to investigate the uncertainty of an urban sewer system’s response under various rainfall and infrastructure scenarios by applying a recently developed nonparametric copula-based simulation approach to extreme rainfall fields. The approach allows for Monte Carlo simulation of multiple variables with differing marginal distributions and arbitrary dependence structure. The independent and identically distributed daily extreme rainfall events of the corresponding urban area, extracted from nationwide high resolution radar data stage IV, are the inputs of the spatial simulator. The simulated extreme rainfall fields were used to calculate excess runoff using the Natural Resources Conservation Service’s approach. New York City is selected as a case study and the results highlight the importance of preserving the spatial dependence of rainfall fields between the grids, even for simplified hydrologic models. This study estimates the probability of combined sewer overflows under extreme rainfall events and identifies the most effective locations in New York City to install green infrastructure for detaining excess stormwater runoff. The results of this study are beneficial for planners working on stormwater management and the approach is broadly applicable because it does not rely on extensive sewer system information.     

Sedimentary and geochemical evidence of Eocene climate change in the Xining Basin,northeastern Tibetan Plateau

The northeastern Tibetan Plateau began to grow during the Eocene and it is important to understand the climatic history of Asia during this period of so-called ‘doubthouse' conditions. However, despite major advances in the last few decades,the evolutionary history and possible mechanisms of Eocene climate change in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau remain unclear.The Xining Basin in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau contains a continuous sequence of Early to Late Eocene non-marine sediments which provides the opportunity to resolve long-term climate changes during this period. In this study, we report the results of analyses of lithofacies, sediment color and geochemistry of bulk samples collected from the Xijigou section of the Xining Basin. An abrupt lithofacies change between the Early(~52–40 Ma) and Late Eocene(~40–34 Ma) indicates a change in the depositional environment from a shallow lake to a playa lake in response to a significant climatic shift. During ~52–40 Ma,higher values of sediment redness(a*), redness/lightness(a*/L*) and higher modified Chemical Index of Weathering(CIW′)indicate a relatively warm and humid climate, while from ~40–34 Ma the lower values of a*, a*/L*and lower CIW′ imply subhumid to semi-arid climatic conditions. The paleoclimatic records indicate a long-term(~52–34 Ma) trend of decreasing chemical weathering, consistent with global climate change. An abrupt sharp excursion of the proxy records during ~42–40 Ma suggests a relatively brief warm interval, corresponding to the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum(MECO). We suggest that global cooling substantially reduced humidity in inner Asia, resulting in sub-humid to semi-arid climatic conditions after 40 Ma in the Xining Basin, which may have been responsible for the long-term trend of decreasing chemical weathering during the Eocene.     

2003年民乐-山丹6.1、5.8级地震灾害损失评估

2003年10月25日在甘肃省民乐-山丹交界处相继发生MS6.1和MS5.8地震,造成10人死亡、46人受伤,近5万人失去住所;村镇民用房屋、水利、生命线工程和学校、卫生院所等公共设施严重破坏。震后采用抽样调查、单项调查、填表调查核实的方法,取得了大量的实际资料,将灾区合理的划分为3个评估区,建立了每个评估区的每类建筑物的破坏比、损失比和基础数据资料,分10个专项进行统计分析,通过计算得出了本次地震灾害的经济损失结果。     

Free polyamine content during algal bloom succession in the East China Sea in spring 2010

We measured the concentrations and distribution of major polyamines(spermine, putrescine and spermidine) in seawater during successive spring algal blooms in an area of frequent harmful blooms in the East China Sea. Spermine, putrescine, and spermidine concentrations were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography and ranged from 1–64, 7–81, and 0–19 nmol/L. Spermine was present at the highest concentrations, followed by putrescine and spermidine. In late April, when a diatom bloom dominated by Skeletonema costatum dispersed, polyamine concentrations increased, presumably as a result of diatom decomposition. In early May, when a dinoflagellate bloom dominated by Prorocentrum donghaiense occurred, the polyamine concentration decreased from the level seen in late April. The abundant polyamines that decomposed and were released during the diatom bloom in late April may have promoted the growth of P. donghaiense, resulting in its dominance.     

一维连续导电剖面的反演问题

基于Schlumberger装置测得的视电阻率,在Coen理论的基础上对一维连续直流导电剖面的反演问题进行研究。分别给出了导电剖面是常函数、线性函数、幂函数、指数函数、分段函数情况下的精确数据和噪音数据反演结果。利用一个野外场地反演的例子,把利用该方法进行反演得到的连续模型和Inman得到的层状模型进行了相应的比较,发现该方法在处理实际场地数据也是有效的。     

Northward cooling of the Kuncha nappe and downward heating of the Lesser Himalayan autochthon distributed to the south of Mt. Annapurna,western central Nepal

We investigated the tectonothermal history of the Lesser Himalayan sediments (LHS), which are tectonically overlain by the Higher Himalayan Crystalline. Fission‐track dating and the track length measurement of detrital zircons obtained from the Kuncha nappe and the Lesser Himalayan autochthonous sediments in western central Nepal revealed northward cooling of the nappe and possible downward heating of the autochthon by the overlying hot nappe. Nine zircon fission‐track (ZFT) ages of the nappe showed northward‐younging linear distribution from 11.6 Ma in the front at Tamghas, 6 Ma in the central at Naudanda, and 1.6 Ma in the northernmost point at Tatopani. Thermochronological invert calculation of the ZFT length elucidated that the Kuncha nappe gradually cooled down (30 °C/Myr) at the front and rapidly cooled down (120 °C/Myr) at the root zone. In contrast, the ZFT age of the Chappani Formation, located just beneath the Kuncha nappe in the central part, demonstrated a totally reset age of 6.8 Ma, whereas the Virkot Formation, structurally far from the nappe, yielded a partially reset age of 457.3 Ma. This suggests that the LHS underwent downward heating, resulting in a thermal print on the upper part of the LHS; however, the thermal effect was not sufficient to anneal ZFT totally in the deeper part. Presently, the nappe cover is eroded and denuded from this area. Detrital zircons from the Chappani Formation in Tansen area to the south of the Bari Gad Fault did not show any evidence of annealing, suggesting that nappe never covered the LHS distributed to the south of the fault.