Design Earthquakes in the U.K.

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Are open fractures necessarily aligned with maximum horizontal stress?

Fluid flow in fractured rock is an increasingly central issue in recovering water and hydrocarbon supplies and geothermal energy, in predicting flow of pollutants underground, in engineering structures, and in understanding large-scale crustal behaviour. Conventional wisdom assumes that fluids prefer to flow along fractures oriented parallel or nearly parallel to modern-day maximum horizontal compressive stress, or S_Hmax. The reasoning is that these fractures have the lowest normal stresses across them and therefore provide the least resistance to flow. For example, this view governs how geophysicists design and interpret seismic experiments to probe fracture fluid pathways in the deep subsurface. Contrary to these widely held views, here we use core, stress measurement, and fluid flow data to show that S_Hmax does not necessarily coincide with the direction of open natural fractures in the subsurface (>3 km depth). Consequently, in situ stress direction cannot be considered to predict or control the direction of maximum permeability in rock. Where effective stress is compressive and fractures are expected to be closed, chemical alteration dictates location of open conduits, either preserving or destroying fracture flow pathways no matter their orientation.     

Using Eigenpattern Analysis to Constrain Seasonal Signals in Southern California

— Earthquake fault systems are now thought to be an example of a complex nonlinear system (Bak, et al., 1987; Rundle and Klein, 1995). The spatial and temporal complexity of this system translates into a similar complexity in the surface expression of the underlying physics, including deformation and seismicity. Here we show that a new pattern dynamic methodology can be used to define a unique, finite set of deformation patterns for the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN). Similar in nature to the empirical orthogonal functions historically employed in the analysis of atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena (Preisendorfer, 1988), the method derives the eigenvalues and eigenstates from the diagonalization of the correlation matrix using a Karhunen-Loeve expansion (KLE) (Fukunaga, 1970; Rundle et al., 2000; Tiampo et al., 2002). This KLE technique may be used to determine the important modes in both time and space for the southern California GPS data, modes that potentially include such time-dependent signals as plate velocities, viscoelasticity, and seasonal effects. Here we attempt to characterize several of the seasonal vertical signals on various spatial scales. These, in turn, can be used to better model geophysical signals of interest such as coseismic deformation, viscoelastic effects, and creep, as well as provide data assimilation and model verification for large-scale numerical simulations of southern California.     

A patch hierarchy approach to modeling surface and subsurface hydrology in complex flood‐plain environments

Geomorphology interacts with surface‐ and ground‐water hydrology across multiple spatial scales. Nonetheless, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models are most commonly implemented at a single spatial scale. Using an existing hydrogeologic computer model, we implemented a simple hierarchical approach to modeling surface‐ and ground‐water hydrology in a complex geomorphic setting. We parameterized the model to simulate ground‐ and surface‐water ?ow patterns through a hierarchical, three‐dimensional, quantitative representation of an anabranched montane alluvial ?ood plain (the Nyack Flood Plain, Middle Fork Flathead River, Montana, USA). Comparison of model results to ?eld data showed that the model provided reasonable representations of spatial patterns of aquifer recharge and discharge, temporal patterns of ?ood‐water storage on the ?ood plain, and rates of ground‐water movement from the main river channel into a large lateral spring channel on the ?ood plain, and water table elevation in the alluvial aquifer. These results suggest that a hierarchical approach to modeling ground‐ and surface‐water hydrology can reproduce realistic patterns of surface‐ and ground‐water ?ux on alluvial ?ood plains, and therefore should provide an excellent ‘quantitative laboratory’ for studying complex interactions between geomorphology and hydrology at and across multiple spatial scales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Visual method for spectral band selection

We present a new method for performing band selection experiments with spectral data. This method allows for the visual inspection and assessment of the experiment results, and includes a statistical significance test. The method follows a standard feature selection approach in which a multivariate distance measure is used as a figure of merit in a search-optimization procedure. For this letter, we have chosen the Jeffries-Matusita distance between each sample and its immediate background. The band selection methodology uses either an exhaustive search over all possible combinations of 1-4 bands or sequential forward selection. To analyze the band selection results, we count the number of times that each band is selected as a member of the best set by the protocol, and we plot the results as a band frequency histogram. This allows us to visually discern spectral patterns that are not evident otherwise, and thus better assess the utility of each spectral band. We can compute band frequency histograms over individual classes of samples or over groups of classes. In addition, we can compute a significance statistic that gives us the probability that a given histogram is not the result of random band selection outcomes.     

The influence of climate on mechanistic pathways that affect lower food web production in Northern San Francisco Bay estuary

Significant coherence among time series of environmental and biological production variables suggested mechanistic pathways through which climate contributed to the downward shift in estuarine production (biomass) in northern San Francisco Bay estuary, 1975–1993. Climate directly and indirectly affected physical processes in the estuary through precipitation and its subsequent impact on streamflow and physical variables affected by streamflow. Climate also directly influenced air temperature and wind velocity. The influence if climate was evaluated through a climate index based on sea level pressure. A shift in this climate index in the early 1980s coincided with changes in many environmental variables including water transparency, water temperature, wind velocity, and rainfall. These physical changes were accompanied by a decrease in diatom, total zooplankton, andNeomysis mercedis carbon at the base of the food web throughout the estuary. Box-Jenkins time series coherence analysis was used to quantify associations among these physical, chemical, and biological time series for nine regions of the estuary. These associations were used to develop a conceptual model of mechanistic pathways that directly linked food web carbon production to climate. Strong coherence among diatom, zooplankton, andN. mercedis carbon time series suggested climate also had an indirect impact on food web production through trophic cascade. Differing mechanistic pathways among the nine regions of the estuary suggested climate was an important contributor to the spatial variability in total food web production and trophic structure.     

Decoupling of As and Fe release to Bangladesh groundwater under reducing conditions. Part I: Evidence from sediment profiles

This study reexamines the notion that extensive As mobilization in anoxic groundwater of Bangladesh is intimately linked to the dissolution of Fe oxyhydroxides on the basis of analyses performed on a suite of freshly collected samples of aquifer material. Detailed sediment profiles extending to 40 to 70 m depth below the surface were obtained at six sites where local groundwater As concentrations were known to span a wide range. The sediment properties that were measured include (1) the proportion of Fe(II) in the Fe fraction leached in hot 1.2 N HCl, (2) diffuse spectral reflectance, and (3) magnetic susceptibility.In parallel with local concentrations of dissolved As ranging from <5 to 600 μg/L, Fe(II)/Fe ratios in shallow (gray) Holocene sands tended to gradually increase with depth from values of 0.3 to 0.5 to up to 0.9. In deeper (orange) aquifers of presumed Pleistocene age that were separated from shallow sands by a clay layer and contained <5 μg/L dissolved As, leachable Fe(II)/Fe ratios averaged ∼0.2. There was no consistent relation between sediment Fe(II)/Fe and dissolved Fe concentrations in groundwater in nearby wells. The reflectance measurements indicate a systematic linear relation (R² of 0.66; n = 151) between the first derivative transform of the reflectance at 520 nm and Fe(II)/Fe. The magnetic susceptibility of the shallow aquifer sands ranged from 200 to 3600 (x 10⁻⁹ m³/kg SI) and was linearly related (R² of 0.75; n = 29) to the concentrations of minerals that could be magnetically separated (0.03 to 0.79% dry weight). No systematic depth trends in magnetic susceptibility were observed within the shallow sands, although the susceptibility of deeper low-As aquifers was low (up to ∼200 × 10⁻⁹ m³/kg SI).This set of observations, complemented by incubation results described in a companion paper by van Geen et al. (this volume), suggests that the release of As is linked to the transformation of predominantly Fe (III) oxyhydroxide coatings on sand particles to Fe(II) or mixed Fe(II/III) solid phases with a flatter reflectance spectrum such as siderite, vivianite, or magnetite, without necessarily resulting in the release of Fe to groundwater. The very low As/Fe ratio of magnetically separated minerals compared to the As/Fe of bulk acid leachate (2 vs. 40 10⁻⁶, respectively) suggests that such a transformation could be accompanied by a significant redistribution of As to a mobilizable phase on the surface of aquifer particles.     

An experimental and theoretical determination of oxygen isotope fractionation in the system magnetite-H2O from 300 to 800°C

Oxygen isotope fractionations have been determined between magnetite and water from 300 to 800°C and pressures between 10 and 215MPa. We selected three reaction pathways to investigate fractionation: (a) reaction of fine-grained magnetite with dilute aqueous NaCl solutions; (b) reduction of fine-grained hematite through reaction with dilute acetic acid; and (c) oxidation of fine iron power in either pure water or dilute NaCl solutions. Effective use of acetic acid was limited to temperatures up to about 400°C, whereas oxide-solution isotope exchange experiments were conducted at all temperatures. Equilibrium ¹⁸O/¹⁶O fractionation factors were calculated from the oxide-water experiments by means of the partial isotope exchange method, where generally four isotopically different waters were used at any given temperature. Each run product was characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and on a limited basis, high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) and Mössbauer spectroscopy. Results from the microscopic examinations indicate the formation of well-crystallized octahedra and dodecahedra of magnetite where the extent of crystallization, grain size, and grain habit depend on the initial starting material, P, T, solution composition, and duration of the run.The greatest amount of oxygen isotope exchange (∼90% or greater) was observed in experiments where magnetite either recrystallized in the presence of 0.5 m NaCl from 500 to 800°C or formed from hematite reacted with 0.5 m acetic acid at 300, 350 and 400°C. Fractionation factors (10³ ln α_mt-H2O) determined from these partial exchange experiments exhibit a steep decrease (to more negative values) with decreasing temperature down to about 500°C, followed by shallower slope. A least-squares regression model of these partial exchange data, which accounts for analytical errors and errors generated by mass balance calculations, gives the following expression for fractionation that exhibits no minimum: 1000lnα_lmt-lw=−8.984(±0.3803)x+3.302(±0.377)x²—0.426(±0.092)x³ with an R² = 0.99 for 300 ≤ T≤ 800°C (x = 10⁶/T²). The Fe oxidation results also exhibit this type of temperature dependence but shifted to slightly more negative 10³ ln α values; there is the suggestion that a kinetic isotope effect may contribute to these fractionations. A theoretical assessment of oxygen isotope fractionation using β-factors derived from heat capacity and Mössbauer temperature (second-order Doppler) shift measurements combined with known β-factors for pure water yield fractionations that are somewhat more negative compared to those determined experimentally. This deviation may be due to the combined solute effects of dissolved magnetite plus NaCl (aq), as well as an underestimation of β_mt at low temperatures. The new magnetite-water experimental fractionations agree reasonably well with results reported from other experimental studies for temperatures ≥ 500°C, but differ significantly with estimates based on quasi-theoretical and empirical approaches. Calcite-magnetite and quartz-magnetite fractionation factors estimated from the combination of magnetite β’s calculated in this study with those for calcite and quartz reported by Clayton and Kieffer (1991) agree very closely with experimentally determined mineral-pair fractionations.     

Geochemical evidence for abrupt changes in relative strength of the Arabian monsoons during a stadial/interstadial climate transition

The occurrence and propagation of abrupt climate change between the high and low-latitudes has become an important focus of paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic research. The causes of abrupt change have significant implications for understanding future manifestations of similar forcings under late Holocene (‘Anthropocene’) boundary conditions. Of particular interest are signals indicative of sub-millennial scale climate change in the sub-tropics of similar magnitude and frequency to those recorded in Greenland ice cores. Earlier research in the Arabian Sea has highlighted the sensitivity of sedimentary organic carbon and nitrogen isotope measurements for recording the state of the SW monsoon and associated Arabian Sea Oxygen Minimum Zone. In this study, we exploit the unprecedented fidelity of the sedimentary δ¹⁵N record to identify a 20 cm interval at ODP Site 723 containing a stadial/inter-stadial interval between 43-42 Kyr BP. We employ sedimentary nitrogen isotopes, chlorin pigment and alkenone abundances, major and minor element analyses of highly-resolved (2 mm ≈ 10 yr) samples across this interval to compare a comprehensive, multi-proxy data set to understand (a) the processes contributing to the δ¹⁵N signal in the longer records of denitrification; and (b) the associated climatic events, especially the relative intensity of summer and winter monsoons at these times. A lack of evidence for bioturbation in excess of our 2 mm sampling resolution facilitates decadal-scale oceanographic and climatic reconstructions. Using a four-component flux-dilution model, we show that the deposition of carbonate decreased in parallel with an increase in Total Organic Matter flux from stadial to inter-stadial time. This interval is also marked by a significant drop in lithogenic (dust) accumulation, analogous to a similar decrease noted during deglaciation in the Western Arabian Sea. Combined with alkenone U₃₇^K′-derived estimates for sea surface temperature (SST), we conclude that the climatological shift from stadial to inter-stadial conditions at low latitudes was characterized by repeated switches in mean monsoon state approximately every 200 yr. The winter monsoon was the dominant mode during maximum stadial conditions; conversely the summer monsoon was dominant during maximum interstadial-like conditions. However, each interval was separated by a distinct ‘inter-monsoon’ mode, indicated by a higher continental dust flux but warmer SST. Proxy records for changing bottom-water oxygenation show near-identical results down to the mm-scale, but hint at increased export production leading the onset of anoxia during the stadial/inter-stadial transition. The coherence of all sedimentary signals depicts a wholesale reorganization of the Arabian Sea climate and marine ecosystem over approximately 200 years, a period that may be associated with monsoon modulation by small oscillations in solar irradiance.