Development of statistical seasonal prediction models of Arctic Sea Ice concentration using CERES absorbed solar radiation

Statistical seasonal prediction models for the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) were developed for the late summer (August-October) when the downward trend is dramatic. The absorbed solar radiation (ASR) at the top of the atmosphere in June has a significant seasonal leading role on the SIC. Based on the lagged ASR-SIC relationship, two simple statistical models were established: the Markovian stochastic and the linear regression models. Crossvalidated hindcasts of SIC from 1979 to 2014 by the two models were compared with each other and observation. The hindcasts showed general agreement between the models as they share a common predictor, ASR in June and the observed SIC was well reproduced, especially over the relatively thin-ice regions (of one- or multi-year sea ice). The robust predictability confirms the functional role of ASR in the prediction of SIC. In particular, the SIC prediction in October was quite promising probably due to the pronounced icealbedo feedback. The temporal correlation coefficients between the predicted SIC and the observed SIC were 0.79 and 0.82 by the Markovian and regression models, respectively. Small differences were observed between the two models; the regression model performed slightly better in August and September in terms of temporal correlation coefficients. Meanwhile, the prediction skills of the Markovian model in October were higher in the north of Chukchi, the East Siberian, and the Laptev Seas. A strong non-linear relationship between ASR in June and SIC in October in these areas would have increased the predictability of the Markovian model.     

Analytical solution for transient groundwater flow during slug test in vertical cutoff walls

An analysis method for transient groundwater flow during slug tests performed in vertical cutoff walls is presented. The analytical solution for evaluating hydraulic conductivity of vertical cutoff walls is derived by applying the method of images to the previously developed analytical solution that is exclusively applicable to an infinite aquifer. Two distinct boundary conditions are considered to account for the configuration of the vertical cutoff wall: the wall‐soil formation interfaces with or without the existence of filter cakes, that is, constant‐head boundary and no‐flux boundary conditions. A series of type curves is constructed from the analytical solution and compared with those of a partially penetrated well within an aquifer. The constant‐head boundary condition provides faster hydraulic head recovery than the aquifer case. On the other hand, the no‐flux boundary condition leads to a delayed hydraulic head recovery. The greater the shape factor and well offset from the center of the cutoff wall, and the smaller the width of the cutoff wall, the greater the effect of the boundary condition observed in the type curves. This result shows the significance of considering proper boundary conditions at the vertical cutoff wall in analyzing slug tests. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of Statistical Post-Processing Methods for Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting

In this study, the statistical post-processing methods that include bias-corrected and probabilistic forecasts of wind speed measured in PyeongChang, which is scheduled to host the 2018 Winter Olympics, are compared and analyzed to provide more accurate weather information. The six post-processing methods used in this study are as follows: mean bias-corrected forecast, mean and variance bias-corrected forecast, decaying averaging forecast, mean absolute bias-corrected forecast, and the alternative implementations of ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) models, which are EMOS and BMA exchangeable models by assuming exchangeable ensemble members and simplified version of EMOS and BMA models. Observations for wind speed were obtained from the 26 stations in PyeongChang and 51 ensemble member forecasts derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF Directorate, 2012) that were obtained between 1 May 2013 and 18 March 2016. Prior to applying the post-processing methods, reliability analysis was conducted by using rank histograms to identify the statistical consistency of ensemble forecast and corresponding observations. Based on the results of our study, we found that the prediction skills of probabilistic forecasts of EMOS and BMA models were superior to the biascorrected forecasts in terms of deterministic prediction, whereas in probabilistic prediction, BMA models showed better prediction skill than EMOS. Even though the simplified version of BMA model exhibited best prediction skill among the mentioned six methods, the results showed that the differences of prediction skills between the versions of EMOS and BMA were negligible.     

The Korean Integrated Model (KIM) System for Global Weather Forecasting

The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) began a national project to develop a new global atmospheric model system in 2011. The ultimate goal of this 9-year project is to replace the current operational model at the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), which was adopted from the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office’s unified model (UM) in 2010. The 12-km Korean Integrated Model (KIM) system, consisting of a spectral-element non-hydrostatic dynamical core on a cubed sphere grid and a state-of-the-art physics parameterization package, has been launched in a real-time forecast framework, with initial conditions obtained via the advanced hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation (4DEnVar) over its native grid. A development strategy for KIM and the evolution of its performance in medium-range forecasts toward a world-class global forecast system are described. Outstanding issues in KIM 3.1 as of February 2018 are discussed, along with a future plan for operational deployment in 2020.     

Tsunami research in Korea

The tsunamis that have occurred in many places around the world over the past decades have taken a heavy toll on human lives and property. The eastern coast of the Korean Peninsula is not safe from tsunamis and has sustained tsunami damage in the past. The aim of this study is to review the past, present, and future of some aspects of tsunami research in Korea. A composite numerical model comprising propagation and inundation models is described. The paper also covers tsunami mitigation efforts in Korea, and a tsunami hazard map is developed and introduced.     

Monitoring trace metals in seawater using a diffusive gradient in thin film probe in Ulsan Bay,East Sea,Korea: Comparison with transplanted mussels

To evaluate the applicability of a diffusive gradient in thin film (DGT) probe for monitoring dissolved metals in coastal seawater, DGT-labile metal concentrations were compared with total dissolved metal concentrations using spiked and natural seawater samples in the laboratory and transplanted mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis). This was achieved through the simultaneous deployment of DGT probes and transplanted mussels in Ulsan Bay during winter and summer. DGT-labile metal concentrations were 45% (Cu) ~ 90% (Zn) of total dissolved concentrations, and the order of non-labile concentrations was Cu > Pb > Co ~ Ni > Cd ~ Zn in both metal-contaminated and non-contaminated seawater samples, which was similar to the order of stability of metal complexes in the Irving–Williams series. The overall variability of the DGT probe results within and between tanks was less than 10% (relative standard deviation: RSD) for all the metals tested during a 48-h deployment. The accumulation of metals, as determined by DGT probes, represented the spatial gradients better than the transplanted mussels did for all of the metals tested, and the extent of metal accumulation in mussels differed depending on the metal. The comparison of results for the DGT probe and the transplanted mussels in two seasons (winter and summer) suggested that metal accumulation in mussels was controlled by the physiological factors of mussels and partly by their diet (particulate metal loadings). The DGT probe could be used as a monitoring tool for dissolved metals in coastal seawater because its results explained only labile species. When using the DGT probe, slightly more than half of the total dissolved concentration in seawater samples for all the metals investigated displayed timeintegrated properties and distinct spatial gradients from pristine to metal-contaminated seawater.     

Land response to atmosphere at different resolutions in the common land model over East Asia

Towards a better understanding of hydrological interactions between the land surface and atmosphere, land surface models are routinely used to simulate hydro-meteorological fluxes. However, there is a lack of observations available for model forcing, to estimate the hydro-meteorological fluxes in East Asia. In this study, Common Land Model (CLM) was used in offline-mode during the summer monsoon period of 2006 in East Asia, with different forcings from Asiaflux, Korea Land Data Assimilation System (KLDAS), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), at point and regional scales, separately. The CLM results were compared with observations from Asiaflux sites. The estimated net radiation showed good agreement, with r =0.99 for the point scale and 0.85 for the regional scale. The estimated sensible and latent heat fluxes using Asiaflux and KLDAS data indicated reasonable agreement, with r = 0.70. The estimated soil moisture and soil temperature showed similar patterns to observations, although the estimated water fluxes using KLDAS showed larger discrepancies than those of Asiaflux because of scale mismatch. The spatial distribution of hydro-meteorological fluxes according to KLDAS for East Asia were compared to the CLM results with GLDAS, and the GLDAS provided online. The spatial distributions of CLM with KLDAS were analogous to CLM with GLDAS, and the standalone GLDAS data. The results indicate that KLDAS is a good potential source of high spatial resolution forcing data. Therefore, the KLDAS is a promising alternative product, capable of compensating for the lack of observations and low resolution grid data for East Asia.     

Seasonal Dynamics of Phytoplankton and Environmental Factors around the Chagwi-do off the West Coast of Jeju Island,Korea

The dynamics of phytoplankton abundance with seasonal variation in physicochemical conditions were investigated monthly at 10 stations around the Chagwi-do off the west coast of Jeju Island, Korea, including inshore, middle shore, and offshore in the marine ranching area from September 2004 to November 2005. Water temperature varied from 12.1 to 28.9°C (average 18.8°C), and salinity from 28.9 to 34.9 psu (average 33.7 psu). The chlorophyll a concentration was 0.02-2.05 μg L¹ (average 0.70 μg L¹), and the maximum concentration occurred in the bottom layer in April. A total of 294 phytoplankton species belonging to 10 families was identified: 182 Bacillariophyceae, 52 Dinophyceae, 9 Chlorophyceae, 12 Cryptophyceae, 6 Chrysophyceae, 4 Dictyophyceae, 13 Euglenophyceae, 6 Prymnesiophyceae, 5 Prasinophyceae, and 5 Raphidophyceae. The standing crop was 2.21-48.69x10⁴ cells L¹ (average 9.23x 10⁴ cells L¹), and the maximum occurred in the bottom layer in April. Diatoms were most abundant throughout the year, followed by dinoflagellates and phytoflagellates. A phytoplankton bloom occurred twice: once in spring, peaking in April, and once in autumn, peaking in November. The spring bloom was represented by fourChaetoceros species andSkeletonema costatum; each contributed 10–20% of the total phytoplankton abundance. The autumn bloom comprised dinoflagellates, diatoms, and phytoflagellates, of which dinoflagellates were predominant.Gymnodinium conicum, Prorocentrum micans, andP. triestinum each contributed over 10% of the total phytoplankton abundance.