Residence times in river basins as determined by analysis of long-term tritium records

The US Geological Survey has maintained a network of stations to collect samples for the measurement of tritium concentrations in precipitation and streamflow since the early 1960s. Tritium data from outflow waters of river basins draining 4500–75000 km² are used to determine average residence times of water within the basins. The basins studied are the Colorado River above Cisco, Utah; the Kissimmee River above Lake Okeechobee, Florida; the Mississippi River above Anoka, Minnesota; the Neuse River above Streets Ferry Bridge near Vanceboro, North Carolina; the Potomac River above Point of Rocks, Maryland; the Sacramento River above Sacramento, California; the Susquehanna River above Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The basins are modeled with the assumption that the outflow in the river comes from two sources—prompt (within-year) runoff from precipitation, and flow from the long-term reservoirs of the basin. Tritium concentration in the outflow water of the basin is dependent on three factors: (1) tritium concentration in runoff from the long-term reservoir, which depends on the residence time for the reservoir and historical tritium concentrations in precipitation; (2) tritium concentrations in precipitation (the within-year runoff component); (3) relative contributions of flow from the long-term and within-year components. Predicted tritium concentrations for the outflow water in the river basins were calculated for different residence times and for different relative contributions from the two reservoirs. A box model was used to calculate tritium concentrations in the long-term reservoir. Calculated values of outflow tritium concentrations for the basin were regressed against the measured data to obtain a slope as close as possible to 1. These regressions assumed an intercept of zero and were carried out for different values of residence time and reservoir contribution to maximize the fit of modeled versus actual data for all the above rivers. The final slopes of the fitted regression lines ranged from 0.95 to 1.01 (correlation coefficient > 0.96) for the basins studied. Values for the residence time of waters within the basins and average relative contributions of the within-year and long-term reservoirs to outflow were obtained. Values for river basin residence times ranged from 2 years for the Kissimmee River basin to 20 years for the Potomac River basin. The residence times indicate the time scale in which the basin responds to anthropogenic inputs. The modeled tritium concentrations for the basins also furnish input data for urban and agricultural settings where these river waters are used.     

Construction of three-phase data to model multiphase flow in porous media: Comparing an optimization approach to the finite element approach

Multiphase flow modelling is a major issue in the assessment of groundwater pollution. Three-phase flows are commonly governed by mathematical models that associate a pressure equation with two saturation equations. These equations involve a number of secondary variables that reflect the fluid behaviour in a porous medium. To improve the computational efficiency of multiphase flow simulators, several simplified reformulations of three-phase flow equations have been proposed. However, they require the construction of new secondary variables adapted to the reformulated flow equations. In this article, two different approaches are compared to quantify these variables. A numerical example is given for a typical fine sand.     

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.     

Petrography of alluvial sands as a past and present environmental indicator: Case of the Loire River (France)

Four sample sets of the Upper and Middle Loire river sands were analyzed in order to study the impact of natural and anthropogenic factors on their petrographic composition in space (on an 800 km stretch) and time. Composition was determined by modal analysis of three sand-size fractions using a polarizing optical microscope and calculated for each sample (“standard sand” = Sst). The watershed is composed mainly of endogenic (Massif Central) and sedimentary (southern Parisian Basin) rocks. B-set sands collected in channels for different water flows in 1996 show that Sst compositions vary by only 5 %. Present-day sands in the Upper Loire and Middle Loire have very high petrographic immaturity comparing to others worldwide fluvial sands, although bio-climatic conditions favor sand maturation by source-rock weathering in the watershed. This shows the strong impact of the Massif Central on sediment yield due to relief rejuvenation as a consequence of the formation of the Alps during the Quaternary. Fluvial sands stored during the Weichselian and the Holocene in the Middle Loire floodplain, although partly weathered since their deposition, show higher inputs from the endogenic rocks of the Massif Central than present-day deposits. This can be explained by Weichselian periglacial conditions and the development of crop farming since the Neolithic, which favored mechanical erosion, particularly in the Massif Central which is characterized by a cold, humid climate and steep slopes. The upstream-downstream change in the composition of presently deposited sand is low in the diked area. It shows however that basalt and some heavy mineral grains are vulnerable to abrasion during transport and indicates a marked sediment yield from ancient sediment stored in the floodplain. This is in line with the high incision of the river bed over the last 150 years partly due to dam construction and aggregate mining.     

云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震的完全库仑破裂应力变化与后续地震的动态、静态应力触发

计算和研究了1988年云南澜沧-耿马Ms7.6地震产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化的时空演化图像, 对继澜沧地震13 min后发生的耿马M7.2地震的应力触发问题进行了分析, 同时也对澜沧-耿马地震后24 d内发生的Ms5.0~6.9后续强余震的应力触发问题进行了探讨. 结果显示, 澜沧地震断层破裂产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化空间分布图像具有很强的非对称性, 正值的动态和静态库仑破裂应力变化区域均具有与强余震分布位置吻合较好的现象. 耿马Ms7.2地震受到了澜沧Ms7.6地震产生动态和静态库仑破裂应力的触发作用; 绝大多数后续强余震受到了动、静态库仑破裂应力的综合触发作用.     

From Magnitudes to Diameters: The Albedo Distribution of Near Earth Objects and the Earth Collision Hazard

A recently published model of the Near Earth Object (NEO) orbital-magnitude distribution (Bottke et al., 2002, Icarus156, 399-433.) relies on five intermediate sources for the NEO population: the ν₆ resonance, the 3:1 resonance, the outer portion of the main belt (i.e., 2.8-3.5 AU), the Mars-crossing population adjacent to the main belt, and the Jupiter family comet population. The model establishes the relative contribution of these sources to the NEO population. By computing the albedo distribution of the bodies in and/or near each of the five sources, we can deduce the albedo distribution of the NEO population as a function of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. A problem with this strategy, however, is that we do not know a priori the albedo distribution of main belt asteroids over the same size range as observed NEOs (diameter D<10 km). To overcome this problem, we determined the albedo distribution of large asteroids in and/or near each NEO source region and used these results to deduce the albedo distribution of smaller asteroids in the same regions. This method requires that we make some assumptions about the absolute magnitude distributions of both asteroid families and background asteroids. Our solution was to extrapolate the observed absolute magnitude distributions of the families up to some threshold value H_thr, beyond which we assumed that the families' absolute magnitude distributions were background-like.We found that H_thr=14.5 provides the best match to the color vs heliocentric distance distribution observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. With this value of H_thr our model predicts that the debiased ratio between dark and bright (albedo smaller or larger than 0.089) objects in any absolute-magnitude-limited sample of the NEO population is 0.25±0.02. Once the observational biases are properly taken into account, this agrees very well with the observed C/S ratio (0.165 for H<20). The dark/bright ratio of NEOs increases to 0.87±0.05 if a size-limited sample is considered. We estimate that the total number of NEOs larger than a kilometer is 855±110, which, compared to the total number of NEOs with H<18 (963±120), shows that the usually assumed conversion H=18?D=1 km slightly overestimates the number of kilometer-size objects.Combining our orbital distribution model with the new albedo distribution model, and assuming that the density of bright and dark bodies is 2.7 and 1.3 g/cm³, respectively, we estimate that the Earth should undergo a 1000 megaton collision every 63,000±8000 years. On average, the bodies capable of producing 1000 megaton of impact energy are those with H<20.6. The NEOs discovered so far carry only 18±2% of this collision probability.     

Comparison of lightning activity and radar-retrieved microphysical properties in EULINOX storms

A combined analysis of microphysical thunderstorm properties derived by C-band polarimetric Doppler radar measurements and lightning observations from two ground-based systems are presented. Three types of storms, a multicell, a supercell, and a squall line, that were observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides project (EULINOX) are investigated. Correlations are sought between the mass of rain, graupel, hail, and snow derived form radar observations at different height levels and the electrical activity, represented either by cloud-to-ground or intracloud flashes. These relationships are explained by connecting the radar-derived properties with the non-inductive charging process. For the multicell and the supercell storm, the lightning activity can be linearly correlated to both the hydrometeor total mass and class specific mass in the upper part of the storm. It is shown that the fractions of graupel and hail above the −20 °C-level in these storms positively correlate with the intracloud flash activity in the supercell, and negatively for the cloud-to-ground lightning frequency in the multicell. No such relation can be established for the squall line, indicating that the convective organization plays a crucial role in the lightning development. The analysis of the masses in the different storms shows that lightning activity cannot be parameterized by total mass alone, other parameters have to be identified. The results provide important information for all lightning studies that rely on bulk properties of thunderstorms, e.g., the parameterization of lightning in mesoscale models or the nowcasting of lightning by radar.     

The OSIRIS‐REx target asteroid (101955) Bennu: Constraints on its physical,geological, and dynamical nature from astronomical observations

We review the results of an extensive campaign to determine the physical, geological, and dynamical properties of asteroid (101955) Bennu. This investigation provides information on the orbit, shape, mass, rotation state, radar response, photometric, spectroscopic, thermal, regolith, and environmental properties of Bennu. We combine these data with cosmochemical and dynamical models to develop a hypothetical timeline for Bennu's formation and evolution. We infer that Bennu is an ancient object that has witnessed over 4.5 Gyr of solar system history. Its chemistry and mineralogy were established within the first 10 Myr of the solar system. It likely originated as a discrete asteroid in the inner Main Belt approximately 0.7–2 Gyr ago as a fragment from the catastrophic disruption of a large (approximately 100‐km), carbonaceous asteroid. It was delivered to near‐Earth space via a combination of Yarkovsky‐induced drift and interaction with giant‐planet resonances. During its journey, YORP processes and planetary close encounters modified Bennu's spin state, potentially reshaping and resurfacing the asteroid. We also review work on Bennu's future dynamical evolution and constrain its ultimate fate. It is one of the most Potentially Hazardous Asteroids with an approximately 1‐in‐2700 chance of impacting the Earth in the late 22nd century. It will most likely end its dynamical life by falling into the Sun. The highest probability for a planetary impact is with Venus, followed by the Earth. There is a chance that Bennu will be ejected from the inner solar system after a close encounter with Jupiter. OSIRIS‐REx will return samples from the surface of this intriguing asteroid in September 2023.