Sensitivity of the global atmospheric cycle of mercury to emissions

A systematic investigation of the impact of current uncertainties in Hg emissions from specific source categories on global air Hg concentrations is presented. First, the uncertainties in different emission source categories are discussed and then the results of a base simulation and three sensitivity simulations conducted with a global chemical transport model for mercury (CTM-Hg) are presented. The total Hg emissions in the four scenarios range from 6600 to 9400 Mg/a. The sensitivity studies investigate the impact of the range in uncertainty in natural emissions, emissions of previously deposited Hg, and anthropogenic emissions both in China and worldwide, while taking into account constraints imposed by available data (current/pre-industrial emission ratio of 2–4). In one case, natural emissions and emissions of previously deposited Hg were changed to represent a mid point of the range of values found in the literature. This lead to a 16% increase in background emissions, i.e., natural emissions and emissions of previously deposited Hg combined. Increasing natural emissions by 16% or Chinese anthropogenic emissions by 100% yielded atmospheric Hg concentrations comparable with those measured across the globe without any changes to the atmospheric chemistry. Increasing natural emissions and emissions of previously deposited Hg by 16% and all anthropogenic emissions by 100% as compared to the base scenario yielded atmospheric Hg concentrations that were not compatible with measurements and changes in the chemical behavior of Hg in the atmosphere would be required to yield results that are consistent with observed Hg concentrations. The current uncertainty in total Hg emissions at the global scale is placed at about a factor of two.     

Distribution and significance of long-chain alkenones as salinity and temperature indicators in Spanish saline lake sediments

We investigated relationships between sedimentary solvent-extractable long-chain alkenone (LCA) concentration and composition and environmental factors in a suite of endorheic lakes from inland Spain. LCAs were found in 14 of the 54 lakes examined, with concentrations comparable with those from previously published lacustrine settings. The composition of LCAs in our sites, however, contrast from the majority of those previously reported from lake environments; in our study the tri-unsaturated component is the most abundant component at most sites where LCAs are detected, and C_38:3 is the most abundant LCA in the majority of sites. LCA occurrence appears to be restricted to brackish-hypersaline sites and C₃₇ LCAs are absent above a salinity of ∼40 g L⁻¹ suggesting a salinity control on LCA-producing organisms in these sites. Low concentrations of C₃₇ LCA components means and temperature indices are generally not applicable. Instead we find good relationships between C₃₈ components and (in particular mean autumn) temperature and the strongest LCA-temperature relationships are found when using a combination of all C₃₇ and C₃₈ compounds. We propose a new alkenone temperature index for lakes with elevated salinity and where the C₃₈ components dominate the LCA distributions. This is expressed as (r² = 0.80, n = 13). In this paper, we provide the first account of sedimentary LCA distributions from lakes in inland Spain, extending the range of environments within which these compounds have been found and highlighting their significance as indicators of both salinity and temperature in saline, endorheic lake environments. This has important implications for extending the potential role of LCAs as palaeoclimatic indicators in lacustrine environments.     

Reconstituting nature conservation: Towards a careful political ecology

This paper is about the relationship between nature conservation in theory and nature conservation in practice. I argue that in theory nature conservation is concerned with revealing presence and rendering the present eternal. In practice, the spaces and times of conservation are less clear. Conservationists work with matters of concern that are neither self-evident nor unproblematically co-present. Presence has to be made and re-made. These matters of concern, like rare species, do not always announce themselves to political ecology and they do not always perform to type. Such difficulties are analysed through discussion of practical work conducted in a UK city with field ecologists and nonhuman inhabitants. It is argued that a careful political ecology is one that is intent on making spaces for others that are not simply about presence, inclusion or accumulation. It also involves uncertainties, precautionary measures and looser forms of assemblage.     

The 10th Antarctic meteorological observation,modeling, and forecasting workshop

正1.Overview The 10th Antarctic Meteorological Observation,Modeling,and Forecasting Workshop(hereinafter AMOMFW)took place June 17–19,2015 in the historic city of Cambridge,United Kingdom.The meeting followed its purpose of connecting Antarctic atmospheric science to weatherrelated operational issues and advances in observing,modeling,forecasting,and understanding the Antarctic environ-     

Exploring national decarbonization pathways and global energy trade flows: a multi-scale analysis

The role of fossils fuels in national economies will change radically over the next 40 years under a strong climate regime. However, capturing this changing role through national-based analyses is challenging due to the global nature of fossil fuel demand and resulting trade patterns. This article sets out the limitations of existing national-scale decarbonization analyses in adequately capturing global conditions and explores how the introduction of a global modelling framework could provide vital insights, particularly for those countries that are dependent on fossil fuel exports or imports.

The article shows that fossil fuel use will significantly decline by 2050, although gas will have an important transition role. This leaves large fossil fuel exporters exposed, the extent of which is determined by mitigation action in different regions and especially by the pathways adopted by the larger Asian economies. We find that global-scale models provide critical insights that complement the more detailed national analyses and should play a stronger role in informing deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs). They also provide an important basis for exploring key uncertainties around technology uptake, mitigation rates and how this plays out in the demand for fossil fuels. However, use of global models also calls for improved representation of country specifics in global models, which can oversimplify national economic and political realities. Using both model scales provides important insights that are complementary but that can challenge the other’s orthodoxy. However, neither can replace the other’s strengths.

Policy relevance:

In recent years, how global fossil fuel markets will evolve under different climate regimes has been subject to much debate and analysis. This debate includes whether investments in fossil fuel production still make sense or will be exposed in the future to liabilities associated with high carbon prices. This is important for governments who need to develop coherent policy in relation to fossil fuel sectors and their role as drivers of economic growth and in providing for domestic energy needs. This article argues that national analyses need to be fully cognizant of the global-scale transition, which can be informed by using a multi-scale modelling approach.     

Hindcasting community-level building damage for the 2011 Joplin EF5 tornado

Resiliency of communities prone to natural hazards can be enhanced through the use of risk-informed decision-making tools. These tools can provide community decision makers key information, thereby providing them the ability to consider an array of mitigation and/or recovery strategies. The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, headquartered at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, developed an Interdependent Networked Community Resilience (IN-CORE) computational environment. The purpose of developing this computational environment is to build a decision-support system, for professional risk planners and emergency responders, but even more focused on allowing researchers to explore community resilience science. The eventual goal was being to integrate a broad range of scientific, engineering and observational data to produce a detailed assessment of the potential impact of natural and man-made hazards for risk mitigation, planning and recovery purposes. The developing computational environment will be capable of simulating the effects from different natural hazards on the physical and socioeconomic sectors of a community, accounting for interdependencies between the sectors. However, in order to validate this computational tool, hindcasting of a real event was deemed necessary. Therefore, in this study, the community of Joplin, Missouri in the USA, which was hit by an EF-5 tornado on May 22, 2011, is modeled in the IN-CORE v1.0 computational environment. An explanation of the algorithm used within IN-CORE is also provided. This tornado was the costliest and deadliest single tornado in the USA in the last half century. Using IN-CORE, by uploading a detailed topological dataset of the community and the estimated tornado path combined with recently developed physics-based tornado fragilities, the damage caused by the tornado to all buildings in the city of Joplin was estimated. The results were compared with the damage reported from field studies following the event. This damage assessment was done using three hypothetical idealized tornado scenarios, and results show very good correlation with observed damage which will provide useful information to decision makers for community resilience planning.     

DXL: a sounding rocket mission for the study of solar wind charge exchange and local hot bubble X-ray emission

The Diffuse X-rays from the Local galaxy (DXL) mission is an approved sounding rocket project with a first launch scheduled around December 2012. Its goal is to identify and separate the X-ray emission generated by solar wind charge exchange from that of the local hot bubble to improve our understanding of both. With 1,000 cm² proportional counters and grasp of about 10 cm² sr both in the 1/4 and 3/4 keV bands, DXL will achieve in a 5-min flight what cannot be achieved by current and future X-ray satellites.     

Trends in fog frequencies in the Los Angeles Basin

Data from throughout the Los Angeles area were examined to determine the horizontal distribution of dense fog (visibility < 400 m) in the region and trends over time. The relationship between the occurrence of dense fog to the phase of two atmosphere–ocean cycles: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) measured by the PDO Index and the Southern Oscillation measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was investigated. In addition, the influence of the urban heat island and the amount of suspended particulate matter were assessed. For the three stations that had 22 or more years of data, we examined trends and the relation to atmosphere–ocean cycles. Results show a decrease in the occurrence of very low visibilities (< 400 m) at the stations in close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and Long Beach International Airport (LGB). Occurrence of the frequency of low visibilities at these two locations was also highly correlated with the phase of the PDO. Only a weak, non-statistically significant relationship was seen with the SOI. At Burbank, a reporting station about 30 km from the ocean, no trends were noted, and there was no evidence of a correlation with either the PDO Index or the SOI. In the Los Angeles Central Business District (CBD) when comparing dense fog occurrence in the early 1960s to a similar period in the early 2000s we saw a decrease in dense fog from a mean of 10 h per year to a mean of 3 h per year. Also contributing to the decrease was decreasing particulate pollution and increased urban warming. A downward trend in particulate concentrations coupled with an upward trend in urban temperatures were associated with a decrease in dense fog occurrence at both LAX and LGB. These trends were evident for the period 1966–1997, but appear to have ended by the late 1990s.