Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined withparticular regard to their suitability for simulating forestecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seedproduction, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictionsof responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the related assumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions arehomogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future speciesdiversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impactsin many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gapmodel representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of eachof these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better modelsof regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effectsof climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying outrigorous tests for each new formulation.     

Diagnosis and testing of low-level cloud parameterizations for the NCEP/GFS model using satellite and ground-based measurements

The objective of this study is to investigate the quality of clouds simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global forecast system (GFS) model and to examine the causes for some systematic errors seen in the simulations through use of satellite and ground-based measurements. In general, clouds simulated by the GFS model had similar spatial patterns and seasonal trends as those retrieved from passive and active satellite sensors, but large systematic biases exist for certain cloud regimes especially underestimation of low-level marine stratocumulus clouds in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. This led to the overestimation (underestimation) of outgoing longwave (shortwave) fluxes at the top-of-atmosphere. While temperature profiles from the GFS model were comparable to those obtained from different observational sources, the GFS model overestimated the relative humidity field in the upper and lower troposphere. The cloud condensed water mixing ratio, which is a key input variable in the current GFS cloud scheme, was largely underestimated due presumably to excessive removal of cloud condensate water through strong turbulent diffusion and/or an improper boundary layer scheme. To circumvent the problem associated with modeled cloud mixing ratios, we tested an alternative cloud parameterization scheme that requires inputs of atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic variables. Much closer agreements were reached in cloud amounts, especially for marine stratocumulus clouds. We also evaluate the impact of cloud overlap on cloud fraction by applying a linear combination of maximum and random overlap assumptions with a de-correlation length determined from satellite products. Significantly better improvements were found for high-level clouds than for low-level clouds, due to differences in the dominant cloud geometry between these two distinct cloud types.     

Using seasonal hindcasts to understand the origin of the equatorial cold tongue bias in CGCMs and its impact on ENSO

The cold equatorial SST bias in the tropical Pacific that is persistent in many coupled OAGCMs severely impacts the fidelity of the simulated climate and variability in this key region, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The classical bias analysis in these models usually concentrates on multi-decadal to centennial time series needed to obtain statistically robust features. Yet, this strategy cannot fully explain how the models errors were generated in the first place. Here, we use seasonal re-forecasts (hindcasts) to track back the origin of this cold bias. As such hindcasts are initialized close to observations, the transient drift leading to the cold bias can be analyzed to distinguish pre-existing errors from errors responding to initial ones. A time sequence of processes involved in the advent of the final mean state errors can then be proposed. We apply this strategy to the ENSEMBLES-FP6 project multi-model hindcasts of the last decades. Four of the five AOGCMs develop a persistent equatorial cold tongue bias within a few months. The associated systematic errors are first assessed separately for the warm and cold ENSO phases. We find that the models are able to reproduce either El Niño or La Niña close to observations, but not both. ENSO composites then show that the spurious equatorial cooling is maximum for El Niño years for the February and August start dates. For these events and at this time of the year, zonal wind errors in the equatorial Pacific are present from the beginning of the simulation and are hypothesized to be at the origin of the equatorial cold bias, generating too strong upwelling conditions. The systematic underestimation of the mixed layer depth in several models can also amplify the growth of the SST bias. The seminal role of these zonal wind errors is further demonstrated by carrying out ocean-only experiments forced by the AOCGCMs daily 10-meter wind. In a case study, we show that for several models, this forcing is sufficient to reproduce the main SST error patterns seen after 1 month in the AOCGCM hindcasts.     

Entanglement of Antarctic fur seals at Bouvetøya, Southern Ocean

Entanglements of Antarctic fur seals Arctocephalus gazella were recorded during four summers from 1996 to 2002 at the subantarctic island, Bouvetøya. Rates of entanglement varied between 0.024% and 0.059%. These rates are low for a pinniped population and might be because of the geographic isolation of the haulout site. An apparent decrease in the levels of entanglement over the course of the study was likely due, at least in part, to the removal of entanglements by observers. At least two-thirds of entangling materials were generated by fishery sources. Since there is no known local source of anthropogenic marine pollution, seals become entangled either in waters distant from the island, or when materials drift into local waters. Significantly more subadults were found entangled than expected from the postulated population age class distribution.     

Trends in fog frequencies in the Los Angeles Basin

Data from throughout the Los Angeles area were examined to determine the horizontal distribution of dense fog (visibility < 400 m) in the region and trends over time. The relationship between the occurrence of dense fog to the phase of two atmosphere–ocean cycles: the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) measured by the PDO Index and the Southern Oscillation measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was investigated. In addition, the influence of the urban heat island and the amount of suspended particulate matter were assessed. For the three stations that had 22 or more years of data, we examined trends and the relation to atmosphere–ocean cycles. Results show a decrease in the occurrence of very low visibilities (< 400 m) at the stations in close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) and Long Beach International Airport (LGB). Occurrence of the frequency of low visibilities at these two locations was also highly correlated with the phase of the PDO. Only a weak, non-statistically significant relationship was seen with the SOI. At Burbank, a reporting station about 30 km from the ocean, no trends were noted, and there was no evidence of a correlation with either the PDO Index or the SOI. In the Los Angeles Central Business District (CBD) when comparing dense fog occurrence in the early 1960s to a similar period in the early 2000s we saw a decrease in dense fog from a mean of 10 h per year to a mean of 3 h per year. Also contributing to the decrease was decreasing particulate pollution and increased urban warming. A downward trend in particulate concentrations coupled with an upward trend in urban temperatures were associated with a decrease in dense fog occurrence at both LAX and LGB. These trends were evident for the period 1966–1997, but appear to have ended by the late 1990s.     

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Stream water temperature (t_s) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, t_s records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict t_s at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow database, describes the linear relationship between monthly mean air temperature (t_a) and t_s. Multiple linear regression models are used to predict the slope (m) and intercept (b) of the t_a–t_s linear relation as a function of climatic, hydrologic and land cover characteristics. Model performance to predict t_s resulted in a mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.78 across all sites. Application of the model to predict t_s at additional 89 nonreference sites with a higher human alteration yielded a mean Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.45. We also analysed seasonal thermal sensitivity (m) and found strong hysteresis in the t_a–t_s relation. Drainage area exerts a strong control on m in all seasons, whereas the cooling effect of groundwater was only evident for the spring and fall seasons. However, groundwater contributions are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons. Finally, we found that elevation and mean basin slope are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons, indicating that steep basins tend to stay cooler because of shorter residence times to gain heat from their surroundings. This model can potentially be used to predict climate change impacts on t_s across the USA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers and their hydroxylated/methoxylated analogs: environmental sources, metabolic relationships, and relative toxicities

Brominated compounds are ubiquitous in the aquatic environment. The polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants are anthropogenic compounds of concern. Studies suggest that PBDEs can be biotransformed to hydroxylated brominated diphenyl ethers (OH-BDE). However, the rate of OH-BDE formation observed has been extremely small. OH-BDEs have also been identified as natural compounds produced by some marine invertebrates. Another class of compounds, the methoxylated BDEs (MeO-BDEs), has also been identified as natural compounds in the marine environment. Both the OH-BDEs and MeO-BDEs bioaccumulate in higher marine organisms. Recent studies have demonstrated that MeO-BDEs can be biotransformed to OH-BDEs and this generates greater amounts of OH-BDEs than could be generated from PBDEs. Consequently, MeO-BDEs likely represent the primary source of metabolically derived OH-BDEs. Given that for some endpoints OH-BDEs often exhibit greater toxicity compared to PBDEs, it is prudent to consider OH-BDEs as chemicals of concern, despite their seemingly "natural" origins.     

Context-Dependent Eelgrass–Macroalgae Interactions Along an Estuarine Gradient in the Pacific Northwest,USA

Land-based eutrophication is often associated with blooms of green macroalgae, resulting in negative impacts on seagrasses. The generality of this interaction has not been studied in upwelling-influenced estuaries where oceanic nutrients dominate seasonally. We conducted an observational and experimental study with Zostera marina L. and ulvoid macroalgae across an estuarine gradient in Coos Bay, Oregon. We found a gradient in mean summer macroalgal biomass from 56.1 g dw 0.25 m⁻² at the marine site to 0.3 g dw 0.25 m⁻² at the riverine site. Despite large macroalgal blooms at the marine site, eelgrass biomass exhibited no seasonal or interannual declines. Through experimental manipulations, we found that pulsed additions of macroalgae biomass (+4,000 mL) did not affect eelgrass in marine areas, but it had negative effects in riverine areas. In upwelling-influenced estuaries, the negative effects of macroalgal blooms are context dependent, affecting the management of seagrass habitats subject to nutrient inputs from both land and sea.     

Temporal and vertical distribution of crab larvae in a tidal pass

We investigated the vertical and temporal distributions of portunid zoea andCallinectes megalopae in a tidal pass of the Texas coast. Zoea were equally abundant on ebb and flood tide but were more abundant during the day than at night. Megalopae were more abundant during flood tide and at night than during ebb tide or during the day. We examined the evidence for selective tidal stream transport in both life-history stages. Depth of the centers of mass of the larval distributions and the dispersions around those centers were unrelated to temperature, salinity, current velocity, and time of day. Scaling arguments suggest that the absence of pattern in the vertical distributions was not due to turbulent mixing. There was little evidence that either larval stage used these environmental characteristics as cues for changes in behaviour. However, the presence of megalopae in the water column primarily during flood tide does support the tidal transport hypothesis. Megalopae may have difficulty sensing and reacting to environmental cues in wellmixed estuaries with semidiurnal tides.