Correction to: New insights into the rainfall variability in the tropical Andes on seasonal and interannual time scales

Climate Dynamics - The original version of the article contained errors in Fig.     

New major element analyses of proximal tephras from the Azores and suggested correlations with cryptotephras in North-West Europe

The Azores Archipelago is one of the most active volcanic areas in the North Atlantic region. Approximately 30 eruptions have been reported over the last 600 years with some major VEI 5 (Volcanic Explosivity Index) eruptions further back in time. The geochemical composition of associated tephra-derived glass, however, is not well characterized. An Azorean origin of cryptotephras found in distal areas such as North Africa, the British Isles and Greenland has been suggested, but proximal data from the Azores are scarce and the correlations have only been tentative. These tephras have a traychtic composition, which excludes an Icelandic origin. In a previous study, we presented major element analyses of proximal tephra-derived glass from five Holocene eruptions on the Azores Islands. There is a striking geochemical similarity between tephras from volcanoes on São Miguel and Irish cryptotephras, and especially with eruptives from the Furnas volcano. Here we present new analyses of proximal tephras that confirm and strengthen a link between Furnas and cryptotephras found in south-west Ireland. We also suggest a correlation between a previously unsourced tephra found in a Swedish bog with an eruption of the Sete Cidades volcano c. 3880 a cal BP.     

Scientific problems addressed by the Spektr-UV space project (world space Observatory—Ultraviolet)

The article presents a review of scientific problems and methods of ultraviolet astronomy, focusing on perspective scientific problems (directions) whose solution requires UV space observatories. These include reionization and the history of star formation in the Universe, searches for dark baryonic matter, physical and chemical processes in the interstellar medium and protoplanetary disks, the physics of accretion and outflows in astrophysical objects, from Active Galactic Nuclei to close binary stars, stellar activity (for both low-mass and high-mass stars), and processes occurring in the atmospheres of both planets in the solar system and exoplanets. Technological progress in UV astronomy achieved in recent years is also considered. The well advanced, international, Russian-led Spektr-UV (World Space Observatory—Ultraviolet) project is described in more detail. This project is directed at creating a major space observatory operational in the ultraviolet (115–310 nm). This observatory will provide an effective, and possibly the only, powerful means of observing in this spectral range over the next ten years, and will be an powerful tool for resolving many topical scientific problems.     

Double trouble: subsidence and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> respiration due to 1,000 years of Dutch coastal peatlands cultivation

Coastal plains are amongst the most densely populated areas in the world. Many coastal peatlands are drained to create arable land. This is not without consequences; physical compaction of peat and its degradation by oxidation lead to subsidence, and oxidation also leads to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This study complements existing studies by quantifying total land subsidence and associated CO₂ respiration over the past millennium in the Dutch coastal peatlands, to gain insight into the consequences of cultivating coastal peatlands over longer timescales. Results show that the peat volume loss was 19.8 km³, which lowered the Dutch coastal plain by 1.9 m on average, bringing most of it below sea level. At least 66 % of the volume reduction is the result of drainage, and 34 % was caused by the excavation and subsequent combustion of peat. The associated CO₂ respiration is equivalent to a global atmospheric CO₂ concentration increase of ~0.39 ppmv. Cultivation of coastal peatlands can turn a carbon sink into a carbon source. If the path taken by the Dutch would be followed worldwide, there will be double trouble: globally significant carbon emissions and increased flood risk in a globally important human habitat. The effects would be larger than the historic ones because most of the cumulative Dutch subsidence and peat loss was accomplished with much less efficient techniques than those available now.     

Wetland Loss,Juvenile Salmon Foraging Performance,and Density Dependence in Pacific Northwest Estuaries

During the transition of juveniles from fresh water to estuarine and coastal environments, the survival of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) can be strongly size selective and cohort abundance is partly determined at this stage. Because quantity and quality of food influence juvenile salmon growth, high rates of prey and energy acquisition during estuarine residence are important for survival. Human activities may have affected the foraging performance of juvenile salmon in estuaries by reducing the area of wetlands and by altering the abundance of salmon. To improve our understanding of the effects of wetland loss and salmon density on juvenile salmon foraging performance and diet composition in estuaries, we assembled Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) diet and density data from nine US Pacific Northwest estuaries across a gradient of wetland loss. We evaluated the influence of wetland loss and density on juvenile Chinook salmon instantaneous ration and energy ration, two measures of foraging performance, and whether the effect of density varied among estuaries with different levels of wetland loss. We also assessed the influence of wetland loss and other explanatory variables on salmon diet composition. There was no evidence of a direct effect of wetland loss on juvenile salmon foraging performance, but wetland loss appeared to mediate the effect of density on salmon foraging performance and alter salmon diet composition. Specifically, density had no effect on foraging performance in the estuaries with less than 50 % wetland loss but had a negative effect on foraging performance in the estuaries with greater than 50 % wetland loss. These results suggest that habitat loss may interact with density to constrain the foraging performance of juvenile Chinook salmon, and ultimately their growth, during a life history stage when survival can be positively correlated with growth and size.     

Ultramafic–Mafic Assemblage of Plutonic Rocks and Hornblende Schists of Shirshov Rise,Bering Sea,and Stalemate Ridge,Northwest Pacific: Geodynamic Interpretations of Geochemical Data

The paper presents data on plutonic and metamorphic rocks dredged during Cruise 249 of the German R/V Sonne to the Stalemate Ridge, Northwest Pacific Ocean and the Shirshov Rise, western Bering Sea. Dredges in the northwestern sector of the Stalemate Ridge and central portion of the Shirshov Rise show that the plutonic and metamorphic rocks obtained here are amazingly similar. Our petrologic and geochemical data led us to view the rocks as members of a mafic–ultramafic assemblage typical of cumulate portions of ophiolite complexes and backarc spreading centers. The plutonic complexes of the Shirshov Rise and Stalemate Ridge show similarities not only in the petrography and mineralogy of their protoliths but also in the character of their metamorphic transformations. Plutonic rocks from both areas display mineralogical evidence of metamorphism within a broad temperature range: from the high-temperature amphibolite facies to the greenschist facies. Relations between the index mineral assemblages indicate that the metamorphic history of plutonic complexes in the Stalemate Ridge and Shirshov Rise proceeded along a retrograde path. Hornblende schists accompanying the plutonic rocks of the Stalemate Ridge and Shirshov Rise are petrographically close to foliated amphibolites in subophiolitic metamorphic aureoles. Within the framework of geodynamic interpretations of our results, it is realistic to suggest that the examined plutonic complexes were exhumed from subduction zones of various age.     

Integration of stress testing with graph theory to assess the resilience of urban road networks under seismic hazards

Transportation networks daily provide accessibility and crucial services to societies. However, they must also maintain an acceptable level of service to critical infrastructures in the case of disruptions, especially during natural disasters. We have developed a method for assessing the resilience of transportation network topology when exposed to environmental hazards. This approach integrates graph theory with stress testing methodology and involves five basic steps: (1) establishment of a scenario set that covers a range of seismic damage potential in the network, (2) assessment of resilience using various graph-based metrics, (3) topology-based simulations, (4) evaluation of changes in graph-based metrics, and (5) examination of resilience in terms of spatial distribution of critical nodes and the entire network topology. Our case study was from the city of Kathmandu in Nepal, where the earthquake on April 25, 2015, followed by a major aftershock on May 12, 2015, led to numerous casualties and caused significant damage. Therefore, it is a good example for demonstrating and validating the developed methodology. The results presented here indicate that the proposed approach is quite efficient and accurate in assisting stakeholders when evaluating the resilience of transportation networks based on their topology.     

Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.