Airborne near-real-time monitoring of assembly and parking areas in case of large-scale public events and natural disasters

A critical requirement for an effective and coordinated response by public entities tasked with management, security, and relief during large-scale public events or natural disasters is the availability of current situational information. However, today there is a lack of comprehensive operational systems allowing a near-real-time (NRT) collection, visualization, and provision of situational information for larger areas. In this study a methodological framework is proposed, which allows an NRT extraction and visualization of situational information based on aerial image acquisition. The framework combines digital image analysis using a generic supervised information extraction approach based on statistical modeling with a downstream web-based visualization component realized through an automatic update of web services. Even though being applicable for different scenarios, the workflow will be demonstrated for the specific use-case of a NRT monitoring of open spaces including assembly and parking areas. Compared to other approaches, image analysis results indicate a high robustness and a low demand for computational power sources (7 seconds per image). Due to a high degree of automation, the proposed workflow contributes to a NRT ‘end-to-end’ monitoring system, which was developed within the VABENE (German acronym for ‘traffic management under large-scale public events and disaster conditions’) project covering all parts from the acquisition of raw aerial imagery to the dissemination of information products to end-users.     

Magnetization of celestial bodies with special application to the primeval Earth and Moon

The magnetic fields of celestial bodies are usually supposed to be due to a ‘hydromagnetic dynamo’. This term refers to a number of rather speculative processes which are supposed to take place in the liquid core of a celestial body. In this paper we shall follow another approach which is more closely connected with hydromagnetic processes well-known from the laboratory, and hence basically less speculative. The paper should be regarded as part of a general program to connect cosmical phenomena with phenomena studied in the laboratory. As has been demonstrated by laboratory experiments, a poloidal magnetic field may be increased by the transfer of energy from a toroidal magnetic field through kink instability of the current system. This mechanism can be applied to the fluid core of a celestial body. Any differential rotation will produce a toroidal field from an existing poloidal field, and the kink instability will feed toroidal energy back to the poloidal field, and hence amplify it. In the Earth-Moon system the tidal braking of the Earth's mantle acts to produce a differential angular velocity between core and mantle. The braking will be transferred to the core by hydromagnetic forces which at the same time give rise to a strong magnetic field. The strength of the field will be determined by the rate of tidal braking. It is suggested that the magnetization of lunar rocks from the period ?4 to ?3 Gyears derives from the Earth's magnetic field. As the interior of the Moon immediately after accretion probably was too cool to be melted, the Moon could not produce a magnetic field by hydromagnetic effects in its core. The observed lunar magnetization could be produced by such an amplified Earth field even if the Moon never came closer than 10 or 20 Earth's radii. This hypothesis might be checked by magnetic measurements on the Earth during the same period.     

Origin and evolution of the earth-moon system

The origin and evolution of the Earth-Moon system is studied by comparing it to the satellite systems of other planets. The normal structure of a system of secondary bodies orbiting around a central body depends essentially on the mass of the central body. The Earth with a mass intermediate between Uranus and Mars should have a normal satellite system that consists of about half a dozen satellites each with a mass of a fraction of a percent of the lunar mass. Hence, the Moon is not likely to have been generated in the environment of the Earth by a normal accretion process as is claimed by some authors.Capture of satellites is quite a common process as shown by the fact that there are six satellites in the solar system which, because they are retrograde, must have been captured. There is little doubt that the Moon is also a captured satellite, but its capture orbit and tidal evolution are still incompletely understood.The Earth and the Moon are likely to have been formed from planetesimals accreting in particle swarms in Kepler orbits (jet streams). This process leads to the formation of a cool lunar interior with an outer layer accreted at increasingly higher temperatures. The primeval Earth should similarly have formed with a cool inner core surrounded in this case by a very strongly heated outer core and with a mantle accreted slowly and with a low average temperature but with intense transient heating at each individual impact site.     

Mental maps and travel behaviour: meanings and models

In this paper, the “mental map” concept is positioned with regard to individual travel behaviour to start with. Based on Ogden and Richards’ triangle of meaning (The meaning of meaning: a study of the influence of language upon thought and of the science of symbolism. International library of psychology, philosophy and scientific method. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, 1966) distinct thoughts, referents and symbols originating from different scientific disciplines are identified and explained in order to clear up the notion’s fuzziness. Next, the use of this concept in two major areas of research relevant to travel demand modelling is indicated and discussed in detail: spatial cognition and decision-making. The relevance of these constructs to understand and model individual travel behaviour is explained and current research efforts to implement these concepts in travel demand models are addressed. Furthermore, these mental map notions are specified in two types of computational models, i.e. a Bayesian Inference Network (BIN) and a Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM). Both models are explained, and a numerical and a real-life example are provided. Both approaches yield a detailed quantitative representation of the mental map of decision-making problems in travel behaviour.     

Cyclicity in ridge patterns on the prograding coasts of Estonia

Recent LiDAR surveys have revealed that on postglacially uplifting coasts of Estonia rhythmic coastal landforms (beach ridge sequences and foredune plains) occur to a considerable extent. We studied four of them to reveal age and periodicity in these multiple ridge systems and discussed their genesis in the Subatlantic (semi‐continental) conditions of the Baltic Sea area. Using recent models of Fennoscandian uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), we constructed Holocene apparent sea level curves for the study sites at Õngu, Mänspe, Haldi and Keibu; converted distance–height shore profiles into time series (including corrections on shore profile non‐linearity and variations in GIA‐eustasy balance); and analysed the patterns using spectral analysis. It was suggested that due to non‐tidal conditions, relatively low‐energy hydrodynamic forcing and small aeolian contribution, the ridges mark ancient shorelines. They are relatively modest in height (mostly 0.2–1 m), form regular and extensive (up to 150 ridges) patterns, and date back to ~9000 years before present. We studied <5‐ka‐old sections. The mean ridge spacing varied, depending also on coastal slope, between 21 and 39 m. Both simple counting and spectral analysis involved some specific limitations, yet the estimates for typical spacing were alike, at 32 (±5) years. The regular nature of the low‐ridge patterns originated from relative sea level lowering and gradual sediment accretion/erosion. However, the progradation was rather uplift‐ than accretion‐driven and the stepwise process in ridge formation was probably not autocyclic. It was governed or modulated by quasi‐periodic 25–40 year cyclicity in local wave forcing, relative sea level variations and wind conditions. Being most likely connected to the North Atlantic Oscillation, the quasi‐regular, decadal‐scale, similarly phased variations may magnify each other's effect on the westerly exposed coasts of Estonia. Additionally, some other (e.g. event‐driven) mechanisms may also be present.     

Global geospatial data from Earth observation: status and issues

ABSTRACT

Data covering the whole of the surface of the Earth in a homogeneous and reliable manner has been accumulating over many years. This type of data became available from meteorological satellites from the 1960s and from Earth-observing satellites at a small scale from the early 1970s but has gradually accumulated at larger scales up to the present day when we now have data covering many environmental themes at large scales. These data have been used to generate information which is presented in the form of global data sets. This paper will give a brief introduction to the development of Earth observation and to the organisations and sensors which collect data and produce global geospatial data sets. Means of accessing global data sets will set out the types of data available that will be covered. Digital elevation models are discussed in a separate section because of their importance in georeferencing image data as well as their application to analysis of thematic data. The paper will also examine issues of availability, accuracy, validation and reliability and will look at future challenges.     

The Deformational Response of a Viscoelastic Solid Earth Model Coupled to a Thermomechanical Ice Sheet Model

We apply a coupled thermomechanical ice sheet—self-gravitating viscoelastic solid Earth model (SGVEM), allowing for the dynamic exchange of ice thickness and bedrock deformation, in order to investigate the effect of viscoelastic deformation on ice dynamics and vice versa. In a synthetic glaciation scenario, we investigate the interaction between the ice sheet and the solid Earth deformation, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), accounting for an atmospheric forcing depending on the ice sheet surface altitude. We compare the results from the coupled model to runs with the common elastic lithosphere/relaxing asthenosphere (ELRA) model, where the lithosphere is represented by a thin plate and the mantle relaxes with one characteristic relaxation time, as well as to a rigid Earth without any deformation. We find that the deformational behaviour of the SGVEM on ice dynamics (i.e. stored ice volume, ice thickness and velocity field) is comparable to the ELRA for an optimal choice of the parameters in steady state, but exhibits differences in the transient behaviour. Beyond the ice sheet, in the region of peripheral forebulge, the differences in the transient surface deformation between ELRA and SGVEM are substantial, demonstrating the inadequacy of the ELRA model for interpreting constraints on GIA in the periphery of the ice sheet, such as sea-level indicators and GPS uplift rates.     

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO₂ concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.     

Avalanche risk assessment for mountain roads: a case study from Iceland

This paper presents an assessment of the avalanche hazard potential and the resulting risks on mountain roads for a 38.7-km-long section of road no 76 (Siglufjarearvegur) in northern Iceland following a regional scale approach developed in the Alps. The assessment of the individual avalanche death risk proved applicable to distinguish areas of avalanche hazard with a risk above the accepted level, which should be given priority in following detailed investigations and the planning of possible protective measures, from road sections where the avalanche death risk is low and accepted according to international practice. The cumulative individual and collective avalanche death risks in the investigated road section provide a comparable measure for assessing the avalanche hazard both within the Icelandic public road network and on an international scale. The case study on road no 76 in northern Iceland shows that a standardised regional scale risk-based approach is practical to determine, analyse and assess the avalanche hazard situation on mountain roads in Iceland and guarantees comprehensible, reproducible and comparable results as a basis for a sustainable planning of measures.