A Climate Prediction Method Based on EMD and Ensemble Prediction Technique

Observed climate data are processed under the assumption that their time series are stationary, as in multi-step temperature and precipitation prediction, which usually leads to low prediction accuracy. If a climate system model is based on a single prediction model, the prediction results contain significant uncertainty. In order to overcome this drawback, this study uses a method that integrates ensemble prediction and a stepwise regression model based on a mean-valued generation function. In addition, it utilizes empirical mode decomposition (EMD), which is a new method of handling time series. First, a non-stationary time series is decomposed into a series of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs), which are stationary and multi-scale. Then, a different prediction model is constructed for each component of the IMF using numerical ensemble prediction combined with stepwise regression analysis. Finally, the results are fit to a linear regression model, and a short-term climate prediction system is established using the Visual Studio development platform. The model is validated using temperature data from February 1957 to 2005 from 88 weather stations in Guangxi, China. The results show that compared to single-model prediction methods, the EMD and ensemble prediction model is more effective for forecasting climate change and abrupt climate shifts when using historical data for multi-step prediction.     

Estimating Sea-Level Allowances for Atlantic Canada using the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

Abstract

Sea-level allowances at 22 tide-gauge sites along the east coast of Canada are determined based on projections of regional sea-level rise for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) and on the statistics of historical tides and storm surges (storm tides). The allowances, which may be used for coastal infrastructure planning, increase with time during the twenty-first century through a combination of mean sea-level rise and the increased uncertainty of future projections with time. The allowances show significant spatial variation, mainly a consequence of strong regionally varying relative sea-level change as a result of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). A methodology is described for replacement of the GIA component of the AR5 projection with global positioning system (GPS) measurements of vertical crustal motion; this significantly decreases allowances in regions where the uncertainty of the GIA models is large. For RCP8.5 with GPS data incorporated and for the 1995–2100 period, the sea-level allowances range from about 0.5?m along the north shore of the Gulf of St. Lawrence to more than 1?m along the coast of Nova Scotia and southern Newfoundland.     

新型的决策气象服务系统

江苏省气象台近年来针对各级党政领导指挥生产建设和防灾减灾进行决策时对气象工作的更高要求,变革传统的文稿传统的文稿函发、电话口传、传真传送的落后服务手段,研制了新型的“气象信息服务系统”,以全方位和多层次的综合化服务方式和内容,由网络通读和计算机显示再加上多媒体技术等手段,主支、及时、准确、科学、高效地提高了决策气象服务的水平,较好的发挥了气象工作为各级党政领导的参谋和助手作用。     

珠穆朗玛峰北坡山谷太阳辐射和大气的特征与分析

2006年5月27日～6月30日HEST2006大气科学实验对珠峰北坡山谷的辐射(总辐射、净辐射)和温、湿度、风等进行了综合观测.沿珠峰北坡山谷布设了3个观测站,3个测站的辐射、温度、风都表现出明显的日变化规律,它们在08:00或09:00(地方时,下同)达到极大值.3个测站总辐射和净辐射的日变化都七匕较一致.从日变化最大值出现的时间来看,各站的辐射通量早于气温,气温早于风速.3个测站中任意2站之间辐射(总辐射、净辐射)最大值之比与温度和风速最大值之比均比较接近.因辐射状况、地形结构、大气温度等不同,远离珠峰区域的风一天之内多次改变风向,靠近珠峰区域则24h都为南风.珠峰北坡山谷不同区域风向风速变化存在明显时差,南风强于北风,且持续时间长.研究表明,辐射能量对于珠峰北坡大气运动具有重要的驱动作用,是控制和改变其大气运动方式最基本、最重要的因子.净辐射在不同区域风向转变或风速变化过程中起着决定性的作用.     

华北及其邻区块体转动模式和动力来源

块体的转动是地壳中重要的构造运动形式。根据地质、地球物理和地震活动性等资料，可将华北及其邻区划分为３个亚板块，华北亚板块可进一步细分为多个级块体，这些不同级别的块体或多或少都显示出一定的刚体特性。根据地质构造、地震和古地磁测量等资料，详细地论细地论述了不同级块体的转动问题，即华北及其邻区的黑龙江、华北和华南等３个近东西向亚板块自老第三纪以来相对于新疆地区顺时针转动了１．６°～３．５°；华北亚板块内     

河北承德大庙黑山钒钛磁体矿床地质特征与成因探讨

河北承德大庙黑山铁矿床位于大庙斜长岩体南部边缘,红石砬—大庙深断裂附近北侧。矿区内主要岩类为斜长岩,根据蚀变作用可分为钠黝帘石化斜长岩、绿泥石化斜长岩及混染斜长岩等,前者广泛分布于矿区内,后二者常构成铁矿的直接围岩。黑山铁矿苏长岩体与铁矿体有成因联系,主要受近东西向压扭性断层和龙潭沟—岔沟压扭性断裂带构造控制,分布于黑山斜长岩体内。部分苏长岩体中有分异式浸染矿体,在苏长岩接触带及其围岩中的矿体则为贯入式矿体。苏长岩体根据其特征和共生组合,可划分为两个岩石系列：①苏长岩岩石系列（苏长岩类型岩体、含橄苏长岩苏长岩类型岩体）;②二长岩苏长岩岩石系列（二长岩苏长岩类型岩体、二长岩橄榄苏长岩类型岩体）。矿石结构主要为自形—半自形晶粒状结构、格状熔离结构、海绵陨铁结构。矿石构造有致密块状构造、浸染状构造。矿石金属矿物主要为含钒钛磁铁矿（含量3%～60%）、钛铁矿（含量2%～19%）、含钒磁铁矿（含量7%～27%）,次有少量含钴黄铁矿、黄铜矿。脉石矿物主要为绿泥石（含量7%～33%）,次为斜长石（0%～45%）,及其它少量矿物。黑山的矿源苏长岩和中国及世界同类岩石有显著不同,Si、Al、Fe、Ti、P、Na、K含量高,Ca、Mg含量低,这类岩体为形成铁磷矿床提供了物质来源。本区斜长岩、矿源苏长岩铁矿床和铁磷矿床的氧同位素组成δ18O限于一个很窄的变化范围,反映了它们的物质来源和成因类型的同一性。黑山苏长岩、伟晶苏长岩δ34S 为+1.3‰～+2.1‰,反映苏长岩浆来源于上地幔。黑山铁磷矿体经铁钛氧化物矿物对形成温度计计算得出生成温度为615~975℃,显示该岩浆矿床高温成矿特点。研究认为黑山铁矿主要①、②号铁矿体为岩浆贯入成矿。     

青海岗察岩体多金属矿床成矿流体H、O、S同位素地球化学及成矿学意义

岗察岩体位于秦岭、祁连、昆仑和松潘—甘孜造山带交会部位,属西秦岭成矿区,为秦岭造山带的重要组成部分。运用H、O、S同位素示踪手段对岗察岩体内江里沟、双朋西、谢坑3个矿床的成矿流体进行研究。结果表明,上述3个矿区样品的δ18O（H2O）大部分落在岩浆水范围,因此O同位素具有岩浆水特征,推测3个矿区的流体均来自发生过脱气作用的岩浆,但成矿作用发生在浅部。研究区δ34S值集中在-3.8‰～0.9‰之间,与多数岩浆岩δ34S值的范围-5‰～5‰相近,说明3个矿床的硫均为岩浆来源,即成矿物质主要来源于岩浆。总体δ34S江里沟＞δ34S双朋西＞δ34S谢坑,这种差异可能与岗察岩体岩浆演化有关。3个矿床的δ34S平均值均接近正常地幔硫的范围-1‰～1‰,暗示硫源可能有深源岩浆的参与。     

南海边缘海多金属结核与大洋多金属结核对比

本文通过系统对比分析前人研究成果,研究了南海边缘海多金属结核的成矿特征,结果表明：南海边缘海结核的矿物组成与大洋结核相似,均主要由锰相矿物和铁相矿物组成,其中锰相矿物主要为水羟锰矿和钡镁锰矿,铁相矿物主要以无定型铁氧化/氢氧化物形式存在,另外南海边缘海结核中含有大量硅酸盐矿物,表明在南海结核成矿过程中受到大量的陆源碎屑矿物混杂;相对于大洋主要经济成矿区的多金属结核,南海边缘海多金属结核中主要的经济元素如Mn、Cu、Co、Ni和Zn质量分数较低,而亲陆源性元素如Fe、Ti、P、Nb、Pb、Rb、Sc、Ta、Sr、Th和REY（REE和Y）等质量分数较高;南海边缘海多金属结核的元素地球化学特征和REE配分模式显示其为水成成因,并呈现更低的Mn/Fe值;同时南海边缘海结核也具有较快的平均生长速率及较高的δCe正异常,表明其生长在更为氧化的海水环境。虽然较快的沉积物沉积速率和动荡的海水环境影响了南海边缘海结核的成矿,但大量陆源物质进入海洋也为南海边缘海结核提供了丰富的成矿物质来源,便于南海边缘海结核的快速生长成矿。南海边缘海结核富集有Fe、Ti、Pb、Rb、Th和REY等金属元素,同样可以作为极具潜力的海洋矿产资源。南海边缘海多金属结核具有其独特的地球化学特征,与大洋多金属结核存在着明显差异。     

基于决策树特征提取的支持向量机在岩性分类中的应用

由于支持向量机属于黑箱模型,因此在进行模型学习时无法直接对特征进行选择,而决策树模型在递归创建的过程中自身具有一定的特征选择能力。针对岩性分类问题,本文将决策树和支持向量机结合,通过决策树的建立,在考虑特征重要性的前提下,利用树节点的高度对特征进行提取,并将具有更高分类能力的特征送入支持向量机进行岩性分类。结果表明:通过决策树的特征提取,减少了支持向量机模型的输入特征,从而有效控制了模型的复杂度,使得模型更加稳定并具有更高的分类精度,测试集精度能够提升10%以上。     

Degrading river network due to urbanization in Yangtze River Delta

Evolution of river systems under the background of human activities has been a heated topic among geographers and hydrologists. Spatial and temporal variations of river systems during the 1960s–2010s in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) were investigated based on streams derived from the topographic maps in the 1960s, 1980s and 2010s. A list of indices, drainage density (Dd), water surface ratio (WSR), ratio of area to length of main streams (R), evolution coefficient of tributaries (K) and box dimension (D), were classified into three types (quantitative, structural, and complex indices) and used to quantify the variations of stream structure. Results showed that: (1) quantitative indices (Dd, WSR) presented decreasing trend in the past 50 years, and Dd in Wuchengxiyu, Hangjiahu and Yindongnan have decreased most, about 20%. Structurally, the Qinhuai River basin was characterized by significant upward R, and K value in Hangjiahu went down dramatically by 46.8% during the 1960s–2010s. Decreasing tendency in D was found dominating across the YRD, and decreasing magnitude in Wuchengxiyu and Hangjiahu peaks for 7.8% and 6.5%, respectively in the YRD. (2) Urbanization affected the spatial pattern of river system, and areas with high level of urbanization exhibited least Dd (2.18 km/km²), WSR (6.52%), K (2.64) and D (1.42), compared to moderate and low levels of urbanization. (3) Urbanization also affected the evolution of stream system. In the past 50 years, areas with high level of urbanization showed compelling decreasing tendency in quantitative (27.2% and 19.3%) and complex indices (4.9%) and trend of enlarging of main rivers (4.5% and 7.9% in periods of the 1960s–1980s and the 1980s–2010s). In the recent 30 years, areas with low level of urbanization were detected with significant downward trend in Dd and K. (4) Expanding of urban land, construction of hydraulic engineering and irrigation and water conservancy activities were the main means which degraded the river system in the YRD.