Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States

A February 2012 survey of almost 5,000 farmers across a region of the U.S. that produces more than half of the nation’s corn and soybean revealed that 66 % of farmers believed climate change is occurring (8 % mostly anthropogenic, 33 % equally human and natural, 25 % mostly natural), while 31 % were uncertain and 3.5 % did not believe that climate change is occurring. Results of initial analyses indicate that farmers’ beliefs about climate change and its causes vary considerably, and the relationships between those beliefs, concern about the potential impacts of climate change, and attitudes toward adaptive and mitigative action differ in systematic ways. Farmers who believed that climate change is occurring and attributable to human activity were significantly more likely to express concern about impacts and support adaptive and mitigative action. On the other hand, farmers who attributed climate change to natural causes, were uncertain about whether it is occurring, or did not believe that it is occurring were less concerned, less supportive of adaptation, and much less likely to support government and individual mitigative action. Results suggest that outreach with farmers should account for these covariances in belief, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation.     

Key species of hermatypic coral for reef formation in the northwest Pacific during Holocene sea-level change

Cores from Holocene reefs provided a growth history and species-level identification of corals and demonstrated the most important reef builders during the formation stage. This knowledge is important to determine a principle for reef formation and to provide preservation plans in the near future. A biological and sedimentological study of sediment cores recovered from the Palau Islands and Yoron Island, northwest Pacific, revealed four major facies: corymbose Acropora, arborescent Acropora, massive Porites, and detritus. Species-level observations show that arborescent Acropora (A. muricata and A. intermedia) contributed to reef growth under low- to moderate-energy conditions, whereas corymbose and tabular Acropora (A. digitifera, A. hyacinthus, and A. robusta/A. abrotanoides) and I. palifera were key species for reef formation under high-energy conditions during Holocene sea-level rise and the ensuing period of sea-level stability. Once sea level had stabilized, massive Porites became restricted to areas subjected to low-energy, turbid conditions. These key species are successful corals because the ecological strategy is rapid growth, determinate growth, a high degree of colony integration, strongly resistant to wave action, and rapid local dispersion via fragmentation. Moreover, the western boundary current (Kuroshio) flows along the reefs in the northwest Pacific and it is easy for key species to distribute throughout the region during the period of Holocene sea-level rise and stabilization. These features are a principle for reef formation during sea-level changes. These key species played a significant role in Holocene reef formation in the northwest Pacific; however, coral mortality, caused by climate change, has recently been widely reported. Moreover, the decrease in key species abundance in present-day reefs has been more severe than that in any other species. These geological findings have important implications regarding the appropriate use of coral transplantation and decisions regarding the optimal location and size of marine protected areas.     

Pore-fluid pressures and frictional heating on a fault surface

This study considers the effects of heat transfer and fluid flow on the thernal, hydrologic, and mechanical response of a fault surface during seismic failure. Numerical modeling techniques are used to account for the coupling of the thermal, fluid-pressure, and stress fields. Results indicate that during an earthquake the failure surface is heated to a tempeature required for the thermal expansion of pore fluids to balance the rate of fluid loss due to flow and the fluid-volume changes due to pore dilatation. Once this condition is established, the pore fluids pressurize and the shear strength decreases rapidly to a value sufficient to maintain the thermal pressurization of pore fluids at near-lithostatic values. If the initial fluid pressure is hydrostatic, the final temperature attained on the failure surface will increase with depth, because a greater pressure increase can occur before a near-lithostatic pressure is reached. The rate at which thermal pressurization proceeds depends primarily on the hydraulic characteristics of the surrounding porous medium, the coefficient of friction on the fault surface, and the slip velocity. If either the permeability exceeds 10^–15 m² or the porous medium compressibility exceeds 10^–8 Pa^–1, then frictional melting may occur on the fault surface before thermal pressurization becomes significant. If the coefficient of friction is less than 10^–1 and if the slip velocity is less than 10^–2 msec^–1, then it is doubtful that either thermal pressurization or frictional melting on the fault surface could cause a reduction in the dynamic shear strength of a fault during an earthquake event.     

Numerical model and flume experiments of single- and two-layered hillslope flow related to slope failure

A hillslope flow model is developed considering 3D saturated and unsaturated flow of water during rainfall events. A finite difference-based numerical model of hillslope flow processes is developed. Four different experiments are done to see the effects of a single- and double-layered soil in pore-water pressure dynamics and slope failure. Results from the numerical model are verified with experimental results. The numerical and experimental values of the pore-water pressure and moisture contents are in good agreement. The results show that the hillslope heterogeneity caused by multiple layers of soil has greater influence on hillslope pore-pressure dynamics and slope failure patterns. The depth of slope failure shows high dependency on layering characteristics of the soil slope and pattern of rainfall. The proposed model provides a perspective on failure mechanism of a single- or double-layered slope under rainfall infiltration.     

Mixed layer in the Sea of Japan: numerical simulation and long-term data analysis

Seasonal variation and topography of the mixed layer in the Sea of Japan are studied by comparison of results from long-term observation data analysis and from numerical simulation with the MHI oceanic model (Shapiro. 1998. Marine Hydrophysical Journal, 6:26～40). The data are retrieved from Oceanographic Atlas of the Bering Sea, Okhotsk Sea, and Japan/East Sea (Rostov, Rostov, Dmitrieva, et al. 2003. Pacific Oceanography, 1 (1):70-72). The simulated and long-term patterns are compared. An impact of surface buoyancy flux, wind, and convergence/divergence of surface currents upon the mixed layer in the Sea of Japan is analyzed.     

Selective detection of Fe and Mn species at mineral surfaces in weathered granite by conversion electron yield X-ray absorption fine structure

A new method for the speciation of Fe and Mn at mineral surfaces is proposed using X-ray absorption fine structure in conversion electron yield mode (CEY-XAFS). This method generally reflects information on the species at the sub-μm scale from the particle surface due to the limited escape depth of the inelastic Auger electron. The surface sensitivity of this method was assessed by experiments on two samples of granite showing different degrees of weathering. The XANES spectra of the Fe-K and Mn-K edge clearly gave different information for CEY and fluorescence (FL) modes. These XANES spectra of Fe and Mn show a good fit upon application of least-squares fitting using ferrihydrite/MnO₂ and biotite as the end members. The XANES spectra collected by CEY mode provided more selective information on the secondary phases which are probably present at the mineral surfaces. In particular, CEY-XANES spectra of Mn indicated the presence of Mn oxide in unweathered granite despite a very small contribution of Mn oxide being indicated by FL-XANES and selective chemical-extraction analyses. Manganese oxide could not be detected by micro-beam XANES (beam size: 5 × 5 μm²) in unweathered granite, suggesting that Mn oxide thinly and ubiquitously coats mineral surface at a sub-μm scale. This information is important, since Mn oxide can be the host for various trace elements. CEY-XAFS can prove to be a powerful tool as a highly sensitive surface speciation method. Combination of CEY and FL-XAFS will help identify minor phases that form at mineral surfaces, but identification of Fe and Mn oxides at mineral surfaces is critical to understand the migration of trace elements in water-rock interaction.     

Glacial hazards in the Rolwaling valley of Nepal and numerical approach to predict potential outburst flood from glacial lake

In recent years, climate change and retreating glaciers constitute a major hazard in the Himalaya of South Asia. Glacial lakes are rapidly developing or increasing due to climate change. The rapid development of the lake may cause outburst of the lake. The outburst discharge from the glacial lake can cause catastrophic flooding and disaster in downstream area. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate the impact of climate change on glacial lakes and to understand the characteristics of the glacial lake outburst. In this study, the field assessment of Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake in the Himalaya of Nepal has been presented and the impact of climate change on this glacial lake has been discussed. The Tsho Rolpa Glacial Lake is the largest and most potentially dangerous glacial lake in Nepal. In addition, a numerical model has been also developed for computing the characteristics of glacial lake outburst due to moraine dam failure by seepage and water overtopping. The numerical model is tested for the flume experimental cases. The simulated results of the outburst discharge, the dam surface erosion, and the temporal variation of the moisture movement in the dam are compared with those obtained from the hydraulic model experiments. The moisture profile calculated by numerical model was agreeable with the experimental moisture profile. The simulated failure surface of the dam due to seepage by considering the suction in slope stability analysis gave more agreeable results than the Janbu's simplified method. The results of the outburst discharge and dam surface erosion also agreed with the experimental results.     

Implementation and evaluation of alternative wave breaking formulas in a coastal spectral wave model

This paper describes methods and results of research for incorporating four different parameterized wave breaking and dissipation formulas in a coastal wave prediction model. Two formulations assume the breaking energy dissipation to be limited by the Rayleigh distribution, whereas the other two represent the breaking wave energy by a bore model. These four formulations have been implemented in WABED, a directional spectral wave model based on the wave action balance equation with diffraction, reflection, and wave–current interaction capabilities. Four parameterized wave breaking formulations are evaluated in the present study using two high-quality laboratory data sets. The first data set is from a wave transformation experiment at an idealized inlet entrance, representing four incident irregular waves in a slack tide and two steady-state ebb current conditions. The second data set is from a laboratory study of wave propagation over a complex bathymetry with strong wave-induced currents. Numerical simulation results show that with a proper breaking formulation the wave model can reproduce laboratory data for waves propagating over idealized or complicated bathymetries with ambient currents. The extended Goda wave breaking formulation with a truncated Rayleigh distribution, and the Battjes and Janssen formulation with a bore model produced the best agreement between model and data.