Regional flood frequency analysis using Bayesian generalized least squares: a comparison between quantile and parameter regression techniques

Regression‐based regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) methods are widely adopted in hydrology. This paper compares two regression‐based RFFA methods using a Bayesian generalized least squares (GLS) modelling framework; the two are quantile regression technique (QRT) and parameter regression technique (PRT). In this study, the QRT focuses on the development of prediction equations for a flood quantile in the range of 2 to 100 years average recurrence intervals (ARI), while the PRT develops prediction equations for the first three moments of the log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) distribution, which are the mean, standard deviation and skew of the logarithms of the annual maximum flows; these regional parameters are then used to fit the LP3 distribution to estimate the desired flood quantiles at a given site. It has been shown that using a method similar to stepwise regression and by employing a number of statistics such as the model error variance, average variance of prediction, Bayesian information criterion and Akaike information criterion, the best set of explanatory variables in the GLS regression can be identified. In this study, a range of statistics and diagnostic plots have been adopted to evaluate the regression models. The method has been applied to 53 catchments in Tasmania, Australia. It has been found that catchment area and design rainfall intensity are the most important explanatory variables in predicting flood quantiles using the QRT. For the PRT, a total of four explanatory variables were adopted for predicting the mean, standard deviation and skew. The developed regression models satisfy the underlying model assumptions quite well; of importance, no outlier sites are detected in the plots of the regression diagnostics of the adopted regression equations. Based on ‘one‐at‐a‐time cross validation’ and a number of evaluation statistics, it has been found that for Tasmania the QRT provides more accurate flood quantile estimates for the higher ARIs while the PRT provides relatively better estimates for the smaller ARIs. The RFFA techniques presented here can easily be adapted to other Australian states and countries to derive more accurate regional flood predictions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Design rainfall estimation in Australia: a case study using L moments and Generalized Least Squares Regression

Design rainfall is an important input to rainfall runoff models and is used for many other water resources planning and design applications. The estimation of design rainfall is generally done by applying a regional frequency analysis technique that uses data from a large number of rainfall stations in the region. This paper presents a regional rainfall frequency analysis technique that uses an L moments based index method coupled with Generalized Least Squares Regression (GLSR). The particular advantages of the GLSR method are that it accounts for the differences in record lengths across various sites in the region and inter-station correlation in deriving regional prediction equations. The proposed method has been applied to a data set consisting of 203 rainfall stations across Australia. It has been found that the proposed method can be applied successfully in deriving reasonably accurate design rainfall estimates from 1 to 72 h durations. It has also been found that the proposed method provides quite consistent estimates where a third order polynomial is adequate in smoothing the intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) curves. The method can readily be extended to a larger data set of Australia and other countries to derive generalized IFD data.     

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes.     

Modeling anomalous radar propagation using first-order two-state Markov chains

In this paper, it is shown that radar echoes due to anomalous propagations (AP) can be modeled using Markov chains. For this purpose, images obtained in southwestern France by means of an S-band meteorological radar recorded every 5 min in 1996 were considered. The daily mean surfaces of AP appearing in these images are sorted into two states and their variations are then represented by a binary random variable. The Markov transition matrix, the 1-day-lag autocorrelation coefficient as well as the long-term probability of having each of both states are calculated on a monthly basis. The same kind of modeling was also applied to the rainfall observed in the radar dataset under study. The first-order two-state Markov chains are then found to fit the daily variations of either AP or rainfall areas very well. For each month of the year, the surfaces filled by both types of echo follow similar stochastic distributions, but their autocorrelation coefficient is different. Hence, it is suggested that this coefficient is a discriminant factor which could be used, among other criteria, to improve the identification of AP in radar images.     

Sea level in the Mediterranean Sea: seasonal adjustment and trend extraction within the framework of SSA

The sea level change is a crucial indicator of our climate. The spatial sampling offered by satellite altimetry and its continuity during the past years are the major assets to provide an improved vision of the Mediterranean sea level changes. In this paper, an automatic signal extraction approach, based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), is utilized for analysis and seasonal adjustment of the Mediterranean Sea level series. This automatic approach enables us to overcome the difficulties of visual identification of trend constituents that sometimes we encounter when using the conventional SSA method. The results indicate that the Mediterranean mean sea level is dominated by several harmonic components. The annual signal is particularly strong and almost covers 73.62 % of the original sea level series variation whiles its amplitude is about 15 cm. The extracted trend also indicates that the Mediterranean main sea level has significantly been raised during the period 1993–2012 by 2.44?±?0.4 mm yr^?1. As an important consequence, considering the current situation, if this trend continues, the Mediterranean Sea level will be raised about 22 cm by the end of this century, which makes a dramatic effect on several issues such as land, flora, fauna, and people activities established along the Mediterranean coastlines.     

Method for determining stable isotope ratios of dissolved organic carbon in interstitial and other natural marine waters

A procedure is described for the analysis of the stable carbon isotopic composition of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in natural waters from marine and higher-salinity environments. Rapid (less than 5 min) and complete oxidation of DOC is achieved using a modification of previous photochemical oxidation techniques. The CO₂ evolved from DOC oxidation can be collected in less than 10 min for isotopic analysis. The procedure is at present suitable for oxidation and collection of 1–5 μmol of carbon and has an associated blank of 0.1–0.2 μmol of carbon.Complete photochemical oxidation of DOC standards was demonstrated by quantitative recovery of CO₂ as measured manometrically. Isotopic analyses of standards by photochemical and high-temperature sealed-tube combustion methods agreed to within 0.3.. Photochemical oxidation of DOC in a representative sediment pore-water sample was also quantitative, as shown by the excellent agreement between the photochemical and sealed-tube methods. The δ¹³C values obtained for pore-water DOC using the two methods of oxidation were identical, suggesting that the modified photochemical method is adequate for the isotopically non-fractionated oxidation of pore-water DOC.The procedure was evaluated through an analysis of DOC in pond and pore waters from a hypersaline microbial mat environment. Concentrations of DOC in the water column over the mat displayed a diel pattern, but the isotopic composition of this DOC remained relatively constant (average δ¹³C = −12.4.). Pore-water DOC exhibited a distinct concentration maximum in the mat surface layer, and δ¹³C of pore-water DOC was nearly 8. lighter at 1.5–2.0-cm depth than in the mat surface layer (0–0.5-cm depth). These results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in elucidating differences in DOC concentration and δ¹³C over biogeochemically relevant spatial and temporal scales. Carbon isotopic analysis of DOC in natural waters, especially pore waters, should be a useful probe of biogeochemical processes in recent environments.     

Lead sorption onto thermally treated soil samples from Irbid

Open burning of waste at dumpsites sites may alter many physical and chemical properties of underlining soil layers including its ability to retard the migration of potential contaminants, such as lead, through the vadose zone. In this study, lead sorption onto soil samples from Irbid that were subjected to high temperatures has been investigated. These samples were collected from ground surface and heated to temperatures of 25, 70, 100, 200, 225, 250, 275, 300, 400, and 550°C. Based on these temperatures the soil was divided into ten different groups. Each group was first characterized by conducting a set of experiments to estimate the Atterberg limits (liquid limit, plastic limit, and plasticity index), the organic carbon content, and a set of batch experiments to study lead adsorption. Results indicate that the LL, PL, total organic carbon are slightly affected by high temperatures less than 200°C, show an abrupt change between temperature from 200 and 300°C, and then slight change above 300°C. Sorption of lead onto heated samples, however, was not significantly changed. This may be explained by the fact that adsorption of heavy metals mainly occurs onto the soil mineral parts which are slightly affected by the temperature range used in this study.     

Effect of embedment on the vertical capacity of bucket foundation in loose saturated sand: Physical modeling

ABSTRACT

Bucket foundations have been widely used for a variety of offshore applications. The effects of skirt length on ultimate bearing capacity of bucket foundation have been studied and reported in published scientific papers. However, few studies have addressed the behavior of bucket foundations in loose saturated sand. In this paper, a series of experimental investigations were performed to determine the bearing capacity of bucket foundation under uniaxial loading. The experiments were conducted on small-scale foundations under vertical loading in loose saturated sand. It was found that increasing the skirt length would enhance the bearing capacity of bucket foundation. As reflected in the present study, bearing strength might be enhanced more than 5 times in loose saturated sand in comparison to surface footing with equivalent diameter. Based on the experimental investigation, a depth factor was proposed to approximate bearing capacity of bucket foundations in terms of those for surface footing and embedment ratio. Moreover, the corresponding settlement of foundation at the failure load was found to increase with skirt length.