Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO₂-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO₂-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.     

Groundwater ‐ the disregarded component in lake water and nutrient budgets. Part 1: effects of groundwater on hydrology

Lake eutrophication is a large and growing problem in many parts of the world, commonly due to anthropogenic sources of nutrients. Improved quantification of nutrient inputs is required to address this problem, including better determination of exchanges between groundwater and lakes. This first of a two‐part review provides a brief history of the evolution of the study of groundwater exchange with lakes, followed by a listing of the most commonly used methods for quantifying this exchange. Rates of exchange between lakes and groundwater compiled from the literature are statistically summarized for both exfiltration (flow from groundwater to a lake) and infiltration (flow from a lake to groundwater), including per cent contribution of groundwater to lake‐water budgets. Reported rates of exchange between groundwater and lakes span more than five orders of magnitude. Median exfiltration is 0.74 cm/day, and median infiltration is 0.60 cm/day. Exfiltration ranges from near 0% to 94% of input terms in lake‐water budgets, and infiltration ranges from near 0% to 91% of loss terms. Median values for exfiltration and infiltration as percentages of input and loss terms of lake‐water budgets are 25% and 35%, respectively. Quantification of the groundwater term is somewhat method dependent, indicating that calculating the groundwater component with multiple methods can provide a better understanding of the accuracy of estimates. The importance of exfiltration to a lake budget ranges widely for lakes less than about 100 ha in area but generally decreases with increasing lake area, particularly for lakes that exceed 100 ha in area. No such relation is evident for lakes where infiltration occurs, perhaps because of the smaller sample size. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forensic hydrology: what function tells about structure in complex settings

Facing the challenges of the European Water Framework Directive and competing demands requires a sound knowledge of the hydrological system. This is a major challenge in regions like Northeast Germany. The landscape has been massively reshaped during repeated advances and retreats of glaciation during the Pleistocene. This resulted in a complex setting of unconsolidated sediments with high textural heterogeneity and with layered aquifer systems, partly confined, but usually of unknown number and extent of single aquifers. The Institute of Landscape Hydrology aims both at a better understanding of hydrological processes and at providing a basis for sustainable water resources management in this region. That would require sound information about the respective regions of interest that are rarely available at sufficient degree of detail. Thus, there is urgent need for alternative approaches. For example, time series of groundwater head, lake water level and stream runoff do not only depend on (unknown) geological structures, but in turn can reveal information about major geological features. To that end, different approaches have been developed and successfully applied at different scales, based both on advanced time series analysis and dimension reduction approaches and on well-known and rather simple methods. This approach has been coined “forensic hydrology”: Like in a crime story, numerous pieces of evidence are combined in a systematic way to end up with a consistent conceptual model about the prevailing cause–effect relationships. An example is given for the Quillow catchment in Northeast Germany in a rather complex geological setting.     

Depositional patterns of Pennsylvanian sediments in Sullivan County, West-Central Indiana, U.S.A.

Individual Pennsylvanian clastic sediment intervals above the Seelyville Coal were examined on electric logs from Sullivan County, Indiana, U.S.A. for vertical sequence, interval thickness, and sand content. This information was used to evaluate local variability of this area of the Illinois Basin depositional system.Each clastic interval is composed of a lateral association of vertical sequences of sediments, bounded above and below by a thin association of coal, limestone, black shale, and/or underclay. An “average” constructive clastic unit is characterized by the following thickness parameters: mean , standard deviation (s) = 3.4 m, minimum = 6.1 m, and

Full-size image (<1K)

sand content, as measured by electric log resistivity, is 37%.Clastic sediment intervals characterized as “deep water” sediments tend to be clayrich, have the greatest lateral continuity, are composed of 50% to 90% coarsening upward sequences, are comprised of less than 16% fining upward sequences, and are composed of less than 10% of sequences of facies which are transitional between coarsening and fining upward. Sandstone channels are linear to coarsely dendritic and probably postdate lower portions of the coarsening upward sequences. One example of longshore shoaling between the Springfield and Houchin Creek coals was discovered. This is the youngest stratigraphic evidence of longshore currents in Illinois Basin clastic sediments. This milieu probably represents a distal delta position.Shallow-water sediments are sand-rich, complex, and gradational. They tend to be interfingered and to display poor lateral continuity. Coarsening upward sequences comprise less than 20% of the data sites. Fining upward fluvial sequences are represented by well-developed dendritic map patterns and constitute 20–30% of the sites. Transitional sequences between coarsening and fining upward log profiles are represented by both interfingered and gradational sequences and constitute 20–55% of the sites.Each constructive vertical sequence represents only a portion of the overall progradational deltatic environment.Destructive linear erosional channels are oriented downdip into the basin. The first occurrence in Indiana of the Trivoli Sandstone channel facies, located between the Ditney and West Franklin horizons, was delineated. Destructive channel sands are found commonly between the Houchin Creek and Colchester coals.Clastic subintervals locally began to develop when compacted unit thickness exceeded 18 m.Average regional wedging contributes 0.13 m/km to local sediment interval thickness variability. The average compacted clastic interval thickness has a local range of 19 m owing to local depositional environments. This variation is related closely to the overall clastic ratio of end-member sequences which are situated in close proximity. The average clastic unit varies in thickness of ± 1.4 m owing to the influence of compaction of the underlying Pennsylvanian sediment filling the Mississippian unconformity valleys. Compactional effects between clastic units become negligible as composite interval thickness exceeds 30 m.     

Statistical analysis of strong-motion accelerograms and its application to earthquake early-warning systems

In view of increasing damage due to earthquakes, and the current problems of earthquake prediction, real-time warning of strong ground motion is attracting more interest. In principle, it allows short-term warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. With warning times of up to tens of seconds it is possible to send alerts to potential areas of strong shaking before the arrival of the seismic waves and to mitigate the damage, but only if the seismic source parameters are determined rapidly. The major problem of an early-warning system is the real-time estimation of the earthquake's size.
We investigated digitized strong-motion accelerograms from 244 earthquakes that occurred in North and Central America between 1940 and 1986 to find out whether their initial portions reflected the size of the ongoing earthquake. Applying conventional methods of time-series analyses we calculate appropriate signal parameters and describe their uncertainties in relation to the magnitude and epicentral distance. The study reveals that the magnitude of an earthquake can be predicted from the first second of a single accelerogram within ±1.36 magnitude units. The uncertainty can be reduced to about ±0.5 magnitude units if a larger number (≥8) of accelerograms are available, which requires a dense network of seismic stations in areas of high seismic risk.     

Regional co-development and security:: a comprehensive approach

Concepts of security are no longer limited to the military form, but other potential, economic, ecological, social aspects are becoming included.Emphasis needs to be put on integration of all dimensions of security. Many environmental problems present threats to human health and welfare and hence to the well-being of nations. The environmental issues cannot be ignored in context of any comprehensive security concept, but environmental security should not be treated in isolation.Integration of sustainable development and regional security may address many of the current maritime issues. Such integration may best be handled jointly and at regional levels.With this in mind and the realization that there is now a clear awareness and understanding that issues such as poverty, underdevelopment, population growth, environmental quality and sustainable resource use, are interrelated and interdependent and must be dealt with as such, the paper aims to highlight some aspects of regional security and sustainable development issues with reference to the Mediterranean basin. The aim is to initiate a process to pursue integration of sustainable development and comprehensive regional security with focus on the Mediterranean.The approach is based on the concept of the Common Heritage of Mankind as proposed by Arvid Pardo in 1967. It has 4 dimensions: economic; ethical; environmental; peace and security. In dealing with the proposal of Arvid Pardo the United Nations General Assembly decided to split up the concept: the Conference on the Law of the Sea was to deal with the peaceful uses of oceans and sea-beds; the Conference on Disarmament with the security aspects, then considered as military. UNCED 92 maintained the separation in addressing only environment and development, with management also included. However, peace and security were not included. It is time now to include these elements, and also consider the enforcement issue. The paper aims at illustrating this need through some examples from the Mediterranean basin.