On the regional distribution of mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime

This paper analyzes the regional distribution of climate change mitigation costs in a global cap-and-trade regime. Four stylized burden-sharing rules are considered, ranging from GDP-based permit allocations to schemes that foresee a long-term convergence of per-capita emission permits. The comparison of results from three structurally different hybrid, integrated energy-economy models allows us to derive robust insights as well as identify sources of uncertainty with respect to the regional distribution of the costs of climate change mitigation. We find that regional costs of climate change mitigation may deviate substantially from the global mean. For all models, the mitigation cost average of the four scenarios is higher for China than for the other macro-regions considered. Furthermore, China suffers above-world-average mitigation costs for most burden-sharing rules in the long-term. A decomposition of mitigation costs into (a) primary (domestic) abatement costs and (b) permit trade effects, reveals that the large uncertainty about the future development of carbon prices results in substantial uncertainties about the financial transfers associated with carbon trade for a given allocation scheme. This variation also implies large uncertainty about the regional distribution of climate policy costs.     

Geological controls on groundwater chemistry and arsenic mobilization: Hydrogeochemical study along an E–W transect in the Meghna basin, Bangladesh

Hydrogeochemical investigations along an E–W transect in the middle Meghna basin show groundwater chemistry and redox condition vary considerably with the change in geology. Groundwater in the Holocene shallow (<150 m bgl) alluvial aquifer in western part of the transect is affected by high arsenic concentration (As > 10 μg/l) and salinity. On the other hand, groundwater from the Pliocene Dupi Tila sandy aquifer in the eastern part is fresh and low in As (<10 μg/l). The Holocene shallow aquifers are high in dissolved As, , Fe and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), but generally low in and . High concentrations (250–716 mg/l) together with high DOC concentrations (1.4–21.7 mg/l) in these aquifers reflect active sources of degradable natural organic matter that drives the biogeochemical process. There is generally de-coupling of As from other redox-sensitive elements. In contrast, the Pliocene aquifers are low in As, and DOC. Molar ratio of /H₄SiO₄ suggests that silicate weathering is dominant in the deeper Holocene aquifers and in the Pliocene aquifers. Molar ratios of Cl⁻/ and Na⁺/Cl⁻ suggest mixing of relict seawater with the fresh water as the origin of groundwater salinity. Speciation calculations show that saturation indices for siderite and rhodochrosite vary significantly between the Holocene and Pliocene aquifers. Stable isotopes (δ²H and δ¹⁸O) in groundwater indicate rapid infiltration without significant effects of evaporation. The isotopic data also indicates groundwater recharge from monsoonal precipitation with some impact of altitude effect at the base of the Tripura Hills in the east. The results of the study clearly indicate geological control (i.e. change in lithofacies) on groundwater chemistry and distribution of redox-sensitive elements such as As along the transect.     

Assessing coupling between lakes and layered aquifers in a complex Pleistocene landscape based on water level dynamics

The biosphere reserve Schorfheide-Chorin is a scenic region with many lakes. Hydraulic coupling between lakes and groundwater is difficult to assess due to the very heterogeneous Pleistocene deposits with a complex layering of different aquifers, part of them being confined. Thus, a principal component analysis of time series of groundwater and lake water levels was performed. The first two principal components provided a quantitative measure of damping of the input signal, i.e., the extent to which time series of groundwater pressure heads or lake water levels are smoothed and delayed with respect to the input signal, i.e., groundwater recharge or precipitation minus evapotranspiration, respectively. The lakes differed substantially with respect to damping behaviour, indicating different impacts of deep groundwater contribution. For most of the groundwater wells, damping increased linearly with mean depth to water table. In contrast, some wells exhibited nearly identical behaviour independent of depth. High-pass filtered data of water table level from these wells were strongly and inversely correlated with those of barometric pressure fluctuations, pointing to a confined aquifer which was evidently not connected to the adjacent lake.     

Implications of weak near-term climate policies on long-term mitigation pathways

While the international community has agreed on the long-term target of limiting global warming to no more than 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, only a few concrete climate policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been implemented. We use a set of three global integrated assessment models to analyze the implications of current climate policies on long-term mitigation targets. We define a weak-policy baseline scenario, which extrapolates the current policy environment by assuming that the global climate regime remains fragmented and that emission reduction efforts remain unambitious in most of the world’s regions. These scenarios clearly fall short of limiting warming to 2 °C. We investigate the cost and achievability of the stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450 ppm CO₂e by 2100, if countries follow the weak policy pathway until 2020 or 2030 before pursuing the long-term mitigation target with global cooperative action. We find that after a deferral of ambitious action the 450 ppm CO₂e is only achievable with a radical up-scaling of efforts after target adoption. This has severe effects on transformation pathways and exacerbates the challenges of climate stabilization, in particular for a delay of cooperative action until 2030. Specifically, reaching the target with weak near-term action implies (a) faster and more aggressive transformations of energy systems in the medium term, (b) more stranded investments in fossil-based capacities, (c) higher long-term mitigation costs and carbon prices and (d) stronger transitional economic impacts, rendering the political feasibility of such pathways questionable.     

Atmospheric winter response to a projected future Antarctic sea-ice reduction: a dynamical analysis

Several studies have analysed the atmospheric response to sea-ice changes in the Arctic region, but only few have considered the Antarctic. Here, the atmospheric response to sea-ice variability in the Southern Hemisphere is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. The model is forced by the present and a projected future seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice. In September, the mean atmospheric response exhibits distinct similarities to the structure of the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode, the leading mode of Southern Hemisphere variability. In the reduced Antarctic sea-ice integration, there is an equatorward shift of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude jet and the storm tracks. In contrast to a recent previous study, our findings indicate that a substantial impact of Southern Hemispheric future sea-ice reduction on the mid-latitude circulation cannot be ruled out.     

The occultation of Mariner 10 by Mercury

An analysis of the Mariner 10 dual frequency radio occultation recordings has yielded new information on the radius and atmosphere of Mercury. The ingress measurements which were conducted near 1.1° North latitude and 67.4° East longitude on the night side of the planet, gave a value for the radius of 2439.5 ± 1 km. Egress near 67.6° North latitide and 258.4° East longitude in the sunlit side yielded a radius of 2439.0 ± 1 km. The atmospheric measurements showed the electron density to be less than 10³ cm^?3 on both sides of the planet. From the latter result one may infer an upper limit to the dayside surface gas density of 10⁶ molecules per cm³.     

Seismic imaging of the laterally varying D" region beneath the Cocos Plate

We use an axisymmetric, spherical Earth finite difference algorithm to model SH -wave propagation through cross-sections of laterally varying lower mantle models beneath the Cocos Plate derived from recent data analyses. Synthetic seismograms with dominant periods as short as 4 s are computed for several models: (1) a D" reflector 264 km above the core–mantle boundary with laterally varying S -wave velocity increases of 0.9–2.6 per cent, based on localized structures from a 1-D double-array stacking method; (2) an undulating D" reflector with large topography and uniform velocity increase obtained using a 3-D migration method and (3) cross-sections through the 3-D mantle S -wave velocity tomography model TXBW. We apply double-array stacking to assess model predictions of data. Of the models explored, the S -wave tomography model TXBW displays the best overall agreement with data. The undulating reflector produces a double Scd arrival that may be useful in future studies for distinguishing between D" volumetric heterogeneity and D" discontinuity topography. Synthetics for the laterally varying models show waveform variability not observed in 1-D model predictions. It is challenging to predict 3-D structure based on localized 1-D models when lateral structural variations are on the order of a few wavelengths of the energy used, particularly for the grazing geometry of our data. Iterative approaches of computing synthetic seismograms and adjusting model characteristics by considering path integral effects are necessary to accurately model fine-scale D" structure.     

THE LOOP CHONDRITE: PETROLOGY,MINERAL CHEMISTRY,AND OPAQUE MINERALOGY

The Loop meteorite was found in 1962 in Gaines County, Texas, at a location very close to that where the Ashmore chondrite was found in 1969. The two specimens were assumed to be fragments of the same meteorite. The Loop meteorite is a type L6 chondrite composed of olivine (Fo_75.4Fa_24.6), orthopyroxene (En_77.6Wo_1.5Fs_20.9), clinopyroxene (En_47.5Wo_45.1Fs_7.4), plagioclase (Ab_84.3Or_5.5An_10.2), Fe-Ni metal, troilite, and chromite. Fe-Ni metal is represented by kamacite (5.8-6.4 wt % Ni, 0.88-1.00 wt % Co), taenite (30.0–52.9 wt % Ni, 0.16-0.34 wt % Co), and plessite (16.8–28.5 wt % Ni, 0.38-0.54 wt % Co). Native copper occurs as rare inclusions in Fe-Ni metal. Both chondrules and matrix have similar mineral compositions. The mineral chemistry of the Loop meteorite is quite different from that of the Ashmore, which was classified as an H5 chondrite by Bryan and Kullerud (1975). Therefore, the Ashmore and Loop meteorites are two different chondrites, even though they were recovered from the same geographic location.     

Correlation of dispersant effectiveness and toxicity of oil dispersants towards the alga Chlamydomonas reinhardti

Using synchronous cultures of the unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas reinhardti, the toxicities of mixtures of Ekofisk crude oil and oil dispersants were measured. Sixteen so-called concentrates and 10 solvent-based dispersants were tested. The dispersing effectiveness of these compounds with respect to the Ekofisk crude oil was also measured. The concentrates were tested undiluted as well as diluted using algal growth medium (2‰ salinity) and artificial sea water (33‰ salinity) as dispersing liquid. The solvent-based compounds were tested in algal medium. For all compounds we found significant correlations between their toxicity and their effectiveness in dispersing the Ekofisk oil, such that the more effective the compound, the more toxic it was.