Seismic response of an urban bridge-support system in soft clay

The numerical simulation of an instrumented urban bridge support and its foundation system was conducted. The bridge works as a deck in a surface subway station and was built 12 yr ago in the so-called Lake Zone in Mexico City, where very soft clays, exhibiting low shear strength and high compressibility prevail. Since the beginning of its construction, pile loads, soil–raft contact pressures and the overall response of the foundation system have been monitored. Within this period, several earthquakes have occurred. Thus, an extensive database of accelerations, pore pressures and load histories have been recorded. In particular, this paper focuses on the bridge response observed during two moderated intensity events, the 2004, 6.3 M_w, Guerrero Coast and the 1999, 7.0 M_w, Tehuacan earthquakes. Finite element models were developed to reproduce the measured responses and to assess the soil–foundation-support performance for long-term conditions, including the effects of potential changes in the dynamic soil properties due to regional subsidence. The computed dynamic responses obtained with the simulation for the free field and structure compares fairly well with the recordings.     

Partial Melting and Counterclockwise P T Path of Subducted Oceanic Crust (Sierra del Convento Melange, Cuba)

Partial melting of subducted oceanic crust has been identifiedin the Sierra del Convento mélange (Cuba). This serpentinite-matrixmélange contains blocks of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB)-derivedplagioclase-lacking epidote ± garnet amphibolite intimatelyassociated with peraluminous trondhjemitic–tonalitic rocks.Field relations, major element bulk-rock compositions, mineralassemblages, peak metamorphic conditions (c. 750°C, 14–16kbar), experimental evidence, and theoretical phase relationssupport formation of the trondhjemitic–tonalitic rocksby wet melting of subducted amphibolites. Phase relations andmass-balance calculations indicate eutectic- and peritectic-likemelting reactions characterized by large stoichiometric coefficientsof reactant plagioclase and suggest that this phase was completelyconsumed upon melting. The magmatic assemblages of the trondhjemitic–tonaliticmelts, consisting of plagioclase, quartz, epidote, ±paragonite, ± pargasite, and ± kyanite, crystallizedat depth (14–15 kbar). The peraluminous composition ofthe melts is consistent with experimental evidence, explainsthe presence of magmatic paragonite and (relict) kyanite, andplaces important constraints on the interpretation of slab-derivedmagmatic rocks. Calculated P–T conditions indicate counterclockwiseP–T paths during exhumation, when retrograde blueschist-faciesoverprints, composed of combinations of omphacite, glaucophane,actinolite, tremolite, paragonite, lawsonite, albite, (clino)zoisite,chlorite, pumpellyite and phengite, were formed in the amphibolitesand trondhjemites. Partial melting of subducted oceanic crustin eastern Cuba is unique in the Caribbean realm and has importantconsequences for the plate-tectonic interpretation of the region,as it supports a scenario of onset of subduction of a youngoceanic lithosphere during the early Cretaceous (c. 120 Ma).The counterclockwise P–T paths were caused by ensuingexhumation during continued subduction. KEY WORDS: amphibolite; Cuba; exhumation; partial melting; trondhjemite; subduction     

Residual Exchange Flows in Subtropical Estuaries

Observations of residual exchange flows at the entrance to four subtropical estuaries, two of them semiarid, indicate that these flows are mainly tidally driven, as they compare favorably with theoretical patterns of tidal residual flows. In every estuary examined, the tidal behavior was that of a standing or near-standing wave, i.e., tidal elevation and tidal currents were nearly in quadrature. The pattern of exchange flow that persisted at every estuary exhibited inflow in the channel and outflow over the shoals. Curiously, but also fortuitously, this pattern coincides with the exchange pattern driven by density gradients in other estuaries. The tidal stresses and the residual elevation slopes should be the dominant mechanisms that drive such tidal residual pattern because the Stokes transport mechanism is negligible for standing or near-standing waves. Time series measurements from the semiarid estuaries showed fortnightly modulation of the residual flow by tidal forcing in such a way that the strongest net exchange flows developed with the largest tidal distortions, i.e., during spring tides. This modulation is opposite to the modulation that typically results in temperate estuaries, where the strongest net exchange flows tend to develop during neap tides. The fortnightly modulation on tidal residual currents could be inferred from previous theoretical results because residual currents arise from tidal distortions but is made explicit in this study. The findings advanced herein should allow the drawing of generalities about exchange flow patterns in subtropical estuaries where residual flows are mainly driven by tides.     

Hydrogeology and sustainable future groundwater abstraction from the Agua Verde aquifer in the Atacama Desert,northern Chile

The hyper-arid conditions prevailing in Agua Verde aquifer in northern Chile make this system the most important water source for nearby towns and mining industries. Due to the growing demand for water in this region, recharge is investigated along with the impact of intense pumping activity in this aquifer. A conceptual model of the hydrogeological system is developed and implemented into a two-dimensional groundwater-flow numerical model. To assess the impact of climate change and groundwater extraction, several scenarios are simulated considering variations in both aquifer recharge and withdrawals. The estimated average groundwater lateral recharge from Precordillera (pre-mountain range) is about 4,482 m³/day. The scenarios that consider an increase of water withdrawal show a non-sustainable groundwater consumption leading to an over-exploitation of the resource, because the outflows surpasses inflows, causing storage depletion. The greater the depletion, the larger the impact of recharge reduction caused by the considered future climate change. This result indicates that the combined effects of such factors may have a severe impact on groundwater availability as found in other groundwater-dependent regions located in arid environments. Furthermore, the scenarios that consider a reduction of the extraction flow rate show that it may be possible to partially alleviate the damage already caused to the aquifer by the continuous extractions since 1974, and it can partially counteract climate change impacts on future groundwater availability caused by a decrease in precipitation (and so in recharge), if the desalination plant in Taltal increases its capacity.     

Wavelet analyses of neural networks based river discharge decomposition

The problem of discharge forecasting using precipitation as input is still very active in Hydrology, and has a plethora of approaches to its solution. But, when the objective is to simulate discharge values without considering the phenomenology behind the processes involved, Artificial Neural Networks, ANN give good results. However, the question of how the black box internally solve this problem remains open. In this research, the classical rainfall-runoff problem is approached considering that the total discharge is a sum of components of the hydrological system, which from the ANN perspective is translated to the sum of three signals related to the fast, middle and slow flow. Thus, the present study has two aims (a) to study the time-frequency representation of discharge by an ANN hydrologic model and (b) to study the capabilities of ANN to additively decompose total river discharge. This study adds knowledge to the open problem of the physical interpretability of black-box models, which remains very limited. The results show that total discharge is adequately simulated in the time frequency domain, although less power spectrum is evident during the rainy seasons in the ANN model, due to fast flow underestimation. The wavelet spectrum of discharge represents well the slow, middle and fast flow components of the system with transit times of 256, 12–64 and 2–12 days, respectively. Interestingly, these transit times are remarkably similar to those of the soil water reservoirs of the studied system, a small headwater catchment in the tropical Andes. This result needs further research because it opens the possibility of determining MMT on a fraction of the cost of isotopic based methods. The cross-power spectrum indicates that the error in the simulated discharge is more related to the misrepresentation of the fast and the middle flow components, despite limitations in the recharge period of the slow flow component. With respect to the representation of individual signals of the slow, middle and fast flows components, the three neurons were uncapable to individually represent such flows. However, the combination of pairs of these signals resemble the dynamics and the spectral content of the aforementioned flows signals. These results show some evidence that signal processing techniques may be used to infer information about the hydrological functioning of a basin.     

Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

The Babcock solar dynamo model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosphere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. We augment the work of Kane (1987) by updating his method of analysis, including recent smoothed aa and A_P indices. We predict a smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163±40 to peak in October 1990±9 months for solar cycle 22. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) predicted value of 170±25, using more direct solar indicators.Now at Dept. of Astronomy, Univ. of Washington     

The coast of Mexico: approaches for its management

The Mexican coast can be regionalized according to the main economic activities performed in it; for the purpose of this work we are considering five regions: North Pacific, Mar de Cortes, outh Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean. According to the national census, the population of the coastal zone in Mexico is increasing at a higher rate than the national average. The main industries located in the coastal and marine zones are oil and gas, fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, maritime transportation and ports, chemical industries, and minerals. Mexico has developed an environmental legal framework based on the Ley General del Equilibrio Ecologico y la Proteccion al Ambiente (LGEEPA), and the coastal management paradigm is strengthened through several other legal tools developed specifically for this purpose. There are three management strategies identified in this work for the coastal zone in Mexico: (1) Agency Leadership, (2) Protected Areas, and (3) Land Ordinance. Each one of these strategies includes stages for eventually developing an Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) plan that considers vertical and horizontal integration, scientific research of natural resources and ecosystems, and socioeconomic issues.