Mapping landslide susceptibility with frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights of evidence models: a case study in northern Iran

The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WoE), and statistical index (SI) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. The landslide inventory map was then randomly divided in a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, 13 landslide conditioning factors including slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, topographic roughness index, lithology, distance from streams, faults, roads, and land use type were prepared, and the relationships between these factors and the landslide inventory map were extracted by using the mentioned models. Subsequently, the multi-class weighted factors were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were verified and compared using several methods including receiver operating characteristic curve with the areas under the curve (AUC), landslide density, and spatially agreed area analyses. The success rate curve showed that the AUC for FR, WoE, and SI models was 81.51, 79.43, and 81.27, respectively. The prediction rate curve demonstrated that the AUC achieved by the three models was 80.44, 77.94, and 79.55, respectively. Although the sensitivity analysis using the FR model revealed that the modeling process was sensitive to input factors, the accuracy results suggest that the three models used in this study can be effective approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping in Mazandaran Province, and the resultant susceptibility maps are trustworthy for hazard mitigation strategies.     

青藏高原近地面层微气象学特征

利用1998年5月-7月在改则、当雄和昌都三测站获得的近地面层气象要素变化的观测资料，分析了青藏高原近地面层风速、温度和湿度日变化特征及廓线规律，发现高原近地面层微气象学特征具有自己的特点；同时还讨论了高原近地面层白天出现的逆湿现象。     

Beach-fill equilibration and dune growth at two large-scale nourishment sites

Natural dune growth after nourishment is often observed, and such growth plays an important role in beach management for coastal communities. Nourishment sand equilibration after construction is another important topic for project planning and design. Large-scale nourishment projects at Nags Head (NC, USA) (completed in 2011) and Bridgehampton–Sagaponack (NY, USA) (completed in 2014) are under comparatively high-wave energy conditions and offer new insight regarding these topics. After nourishment, a natural beach and inshore morphology were produced with high rates of dune growth by eolian transport. At Nags Head, volumetric dune growth averaged 8 m³/m/yr over the first 5 years following project completion, while Bridgehampton–Sagaponack averaged 9 m³/m/yr over the first 3 post-project years. Results are compared with the Bagnold (1941) analytical model predictions of dune growth and are shown to correlate and decay closely with dry-sand beach width as the nourished profile equilibrates. The extra volume and elevation in the dunes have provided a higher level of storm protection and have helped the sites avoid any major damage to oceanfront properties during hurricanes or numerous severe winter storms.     

A recent history of science cases for optical interferometry

Optical long-baseline interferometry is a unique and powerful technique for astronomical research. Since the 1980’s (with I2T, GI2T, Mark I to III, SUSI, ...), optical interferometers have produced an increasing number of scientific papers covering various fields of astrophysics. As current interferometric facilities are reaching their maturity, we take the opportunity in this paper to summarize the conclusions of a few key meetings, workshops, and conferences dedicated to interferometry. We present the most persistent recommendations related to science cases and discuss some key technological developments required to address them. In the era of extremely large telescopes, optical long-baseline interferometers will remain crucial to probe the smallest spatial scales and make breakthrough discoveries.     

福州市土地利用景观格局分析

以福州市土地利用现状图为基本图件，在GIS支持下编制了福州市土地利用景现图，进而选取几种主要指数，通过Excel软件计算，定量分析了福州市土地利用的景观格局及破碎化特征。结果表明：林地为基质景观，优势度指数最高，分离度指数最低；耕地、园地、城镇村及工矿用地和水域的均匀度较高，多样性指数较大，但破碎化程度较深；未利用地破碎度最低。从总体上看，土地利用的景观比较单调、多样性指数较小、破碎化程度也较低，景观异质性不高。     

Validity of the Fossil Fuel Production Outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios

Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO₂ emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels.     

An analytical method to compute comet cloud formation efficiency and its application

A quick analytical method is presented for calculating comet cloud formation efficiency in the case of a single planet or multiple-planet system for planets that are not too eccentric (e _p ≲ 0.3). A method to calculate the fraction of comets that stay under the control of each planet is also presented, as well as a way to determine the efficiency in different star cluster environments. The location of the planet(s) in mass-semi-major axis space to form a comet cloud is constrained based on the conditions developed by Tremaine (1993) together with estimates of the likelyhood of passing comets between planets; and, in the case of a single, eccentric planet, the additional constraint that it is, by itself, able to accelerate material to relative encounter velocity U ~ 0.4 within the age of the stellar system without sweeping up the majority of the material beforehand. For a single planet, it turns out the efficiency is mainly a function of planetary mass and semi-major axis of the planet and density of the stellar environment. The theory has been applied to some extrasolar systems and compared to numerical simulations for both these systems and the Solar System, as well as a diffusion scheme based on the energy kick distribution of Everhart (Astron J 73:1039–1052, 1968). The analytic results are in good agreement with the simulations.     

Comparison of daily and sub-daily SWAT models for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin of China

Despite the significant role of precipitation in the hydrological cycle, few studies have been conducted to evaluate the impacts of the temporal resolution of rainfall inputs on the performance of SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) models in large-sized river basins. In this study, both daily and hourly rainfall observations at 28 rainfall stations were used as inputs to SWAT for daily streamflow simulation in the Upper Huai River Basin. Study results have demonstrated that the SWAT model with hourly rainfall inputs performed better than the model with daily rainfall inputs in daily streamflow simulation, primarily due to its better capability of simulating peak flows during the flood season. The sub-daily SWAT model estimated that 58 % of streamflow was contributed by baseflow compared to 34 % estimated by the daily model. Using the future daily and 3-h precipitation projections under the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 scenario as inputs, the sub-daily SWAT model predicted a larger amount of monthly maximum daily flow during the wet years than the daily model. The differences between the daily and sub-daily SWAT model simulation results indicated that temporal rainfall resolution could have much impact on the simulation of hydrological process, streamflow, and consequently pollutant transport by SWAT models. There is an imperative need for more studies to examine the effects of temporal rainfall resolution on the simulation of hydrological and water pollutant transport processes by SWAT in river basins of different environmental conditions.