Multi-indicator conductivity transfer functions for Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstruction

Diatoms (Bacillariophyceae; single-celled algae) and ostracods (Ostracoda; shelled microcrustacea) are known for their sensitivity to salinity. In palaeolimnology, the potential has yet to be tested for quantifying past salinity, lake level, and by inference, climate change, by application of multiple-indicator transfer functions. We used weighted averaging techniques to derive diatom (n = 91; r ²  = 0.92) and ostracod (n = 53; r ²  = 0.83) conductivity transfer functions from modern diatom, ostracod and water chemistry data collected in lakes of central, western and northern Turkey. Diatoms were better represented across the full gradient than ostracods, at intermediate levels of conductivity in particular, but both transfer functions were statistically robust. Because transfer functions are not infallible, we further tested the strength and simplicity of salinity response and the potential for identifying characteristic associations of diatom and ostracod taxa in different parts of the salinity gradient, to improve palaeoclimate reconstruction. We identified a subset of 51 samples that contained both diatoms and ostracods, collected at the same time from the same habitat. We used Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis of a combined diatom-ostracod data set, transformed to achieve numerical equivalence, to explore distributions in more detail. A clear ecological threshold was apparent at ~3 g l⁻¹ salinity, rather than at 5 g l⁻¹, the boundary used by some workers, equating to the oligosaline-mesosaline boundary. Other salinity boundaries were poorly defined, indicating lack of a simple, well-defined salinity response. We did, however, define characteristic associations of taxa, to facilitate the distinction to be drawn between a hydrologically open, fresh lake and an oligosaline lake, in palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Over the rest of the salinity gradient, we highlighted the potential for the multi-proxy approach to strengthen ostracod-based reconstruction in particular, to overcome the problem of broad apparent tolerance ranges in common halophilic taxa such as Limnocythere inopinata, which often dominate in low-diversity fossil assemblages. The combination of multi-proxy quantitative reconstruction, complemented by qualitative understanding of ecological responses generated by the analysis, remains a powerful tool in Quaternary palaeoclimate research.     

Spatial and temporal influences of in-stream factors on the chemistry and epilithic biomasses of upland stream metal deposits

The density and composition of stream bed metal deposits are affected by physical, chemical and biological processes. In this paper we investigate the importance of these processes and their relation to algal and non-photosynthetic detrital (NPD) biomass in a set of upland streams in Northern Ireland. Deposit density and Fe, Mn, Al and P concentrations varied with stream pH across sites but not seasonally. No effects of stream bed erosion or photoreduction were detected on deposit densities. Seasonal variation in stream water metal concentrations was correlated with rainfall. NPD biomass was a significant predictor of both spatial and seasonal variation in deposit concentrations. There were strong, non-linear, relations between NPD biomass and deposit metal concentrations, with Fe and Mn becoming relatively more important and algal biomass declining above threshold deposit/NPD densities. The results suggest that NPD biomass influences deposit density and reduces the biomass of photosynthetic autotrophs above a threshold deposit density.     

The morphology and hydrology of small spring-dominated channels

Small, low order channels located in wet meadows along the Mogollon Rim of northern Arizona that receive the bulk of their flow from spring discharge exhibit a morphology that differs markedly from channels that receive the bulk of their flow from runoff. These small, spring-dominated channels generally have dense vegetation cover, vertical (or near vertical) banks with flat channel beds that are armored with clasts up to 60 mm. Clasts armoring the spring-dominated channels become mobile at 45 to 85% of the bankfull depth. The lack of fine-grained material in the bed of the spring-dominated channels reflects the small drainage size, lack of fine grain input from the spring, and winnowing affect of the consistent discharge. Minor amounts of large woody debris were present in some of the spring-dominated channels, however, unlike previous studies it does not appear to play a role in the spring-dominated channel morphology. Sinuosity values for spring-dominated channels averaged 1.19, while the average sinuosity values for the runoff-dominated channels, 1.08, were significantly lower. Measured width-to-depth ratios averaged 2.4 in the spring-dominated channels, much lower than the average ratio of 11.6 found for the runoff-dominated channels. The standard deviation of width-to-depth ratios was higher for runoff-dominated channels, reflecting a more variable channel profile. A third channel type, here referred to as hybrid channels, receive significant flow from both springs and runoff. These channels have characteristics that fall between spring-dominated and runoff-dominated channels.Elevation, gradient, organic matter content, and sediment grain size distribution of the wet meadows in which the channels are formed do not exhibit significant differences between channel types, suggesting that these factors are not responsible for the observed differences in channel morphologies. The major differences in controls on the channel morphology found between the spring-dominated and runoff-dominated channels are the discharge regime and the sediment input. The hydrology unique to the spring-dominated channels and the lack of fine-grained sediment input combine to create the observed differences.     

Sub-daily alias and draconitic errors in the IGS orbits

Harmonic signals with a fundamental period near the GPS draconitic year (351.2 days) and overtones up to at least the sixth multiple have been observed in the power spectra of nearly all products of the International GNSS Service (IGS), including station position time series, apparent geocenter motions, orbit jumps between successive days, and midnight discontinuities in earth orientation parameter (EOP) rates. Two main mechanisms have been suggested for the harmonics: mismodeling of orbit dynamics and aliasing of near-sidereal local station multipath effects. Others have studied the propagation of local multipath errors into draconitic position variations, but orbit-related processes have been less examined. We elaborate our earlier analysis of GPS day-boundary orbit discontinuities where we observed some draconitic features as well as prominent spectral bands near 29-, 14-, 9-, and 7-day periods. Finer structures within the sub-seasonal bands fall close to the expected alias frequencies for 24-h sampling of sub-daily EOP tide lines but do not coincide precisely. While once-per-revolution empirical orbit parameters should strongly absorb any sub-daily EOP tide errors due to near-resonance of their respective periods, the observed differences require explanation. This has been done by simulating EOP tidal errors and checking their impact on a long series of estimated daily GPS orbits and EOPs. Indeed, simulated tidal aliases are found to be very similar to the observed IGS orbital features in the sub-seasonal bands. Moreover and unexpectedly, some low draconitic harmonics were also produced, potentially a source for the widespread errors in most IGS products. The results from this study are further evidence for the need of an improved sub-daily EOP tide model.     

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019

We explore the causes and predictability of extreme low minimum temperatures (T_min) that occurred across northern and eastern Australia in September 2019. Historically, reduced T_min is related to the occurrence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and central Pacific El Niño. Positive IOD events tend to locate an anomalous anticyclone over the Great Australian Bight, therefore inducing cold advection across eastern Australia. Positive IOD and central Pacific El Niño also reduce cloud cover over northern and eastern Australia, thus enhancing radiative cooling at night-time. During September 2019, the IOD and central Pacific El Niño were strongly positive, and so the observed T_min anomalies are well reconstructed based on their historical relationships with the IOD and central Pacific El Niño. This implies that September 2019 T_min anomalies should have been predictable at least 1–2 months in advance. However, even at zero lead time the Bureau of Metereorolgy ACCESS-S1 seasonal prediction model failed to predict the anomalous anticyclone in the Bight and the cold anomalies in the east. Analysis of hindcasts for 1990–2012 indicates that the model's teleconnections from the IOD are systematically weaker than the observed, which likely stems from mean state biases in sea surface temperature and rainfall in the tropical Indian and western Pacific Oceans. Together with this weak IOD teleconnection, forecasts for earlier-than-observed onset of the negative Southern Annular Mode following the strong polar stratospheric warming that occurred in late August 2019 may have contributed to the T_min forecast bust over Australia for September 2019.