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271.
Marine reserve networks are an essential and effective tool for conserving marine biodiversity. They also have an important role in the governance of oceans and the sustainable management of marine resources. The translation of marine reserve network theory into practice is a challenge for conservation practitioners. Barriers to implementing marine reserves include varying levels of political will and agency support and leadership, poorly coordinated marine conservation policy, inconsistencies with the use of legislation, polarised views and opposition from some stakeholders, and difficulties with defining and mapping conservation features. The future success of marine reserve network implementation will become increasingly dependent on: increasing political commitment and agency leadership; greater involvement and collaboration with stakeholders; and the provision of resources to define and map conservation features. Key elements of translating marine reserve theory into implementation of a network of marine reserves are discussed based on approaches used successfully in New Zealand and New South Wales (Australia).  相似文献   
272.
Natural resource management (NRM) organizations are increasingly looking to resilience thinking to provide insights into how social and environmental systems interact and to identify points of intervention. Drawing on complex systems analysis, resilience thinking emphasizes that landscapes constantly change from social and ecological interactions, and focuses NRM planners’ attention on identifying key variables, feedbacks, and thresholds that can help improve intervention strategies. More deliberative approaches are being developed to use resilience thinking in ways that engage and build human capacity for action. This article documents experiences shared with NRM agencies in rural Australia as we developed new approaches to link resilience thinking with collective learning principles. We present an emerging framework through which heuristics associated with resilience thinking is being used as part of a planning-by-doing process. The framework is being tested to assess whether and how it can enable change agents to advance their capacities for adaptation and transformation.  相似文献   
273.
The impact of groundwater withdrawal on surface water is a concern of water users and water managers, particularly in the arid western United States. Capture maps are useful tools to spatially assess the impact of groundwater pumping on water sources (e.g., streamflow depletion) and are being used more frequently for conjunctive management of surface water and groundwater. Capture maps have been derived using linear groundwater flow models and rely on the principle of superposition to demonstrate the effects of pumping in various locations on resources of interest. However, nonlinear models are often necessary to simulate head‐dependent boundary conditions and unconfined aquifers. Capture maps developed using nonlinear models with the principle of superposition may over‐ or underestimate capture magnitude and spatial extent. This paper presents new methods for generating capture difference maps, which assess spatial effects of model nonlinearity on capture fraction sensitivity to pumping rate, and for calculating the bias associated with capture maps. The sensitivity of capture map bias to selected parameters related to model design and conceptualization for the arid western United States is explored. This study finds that the simulation of stream continuity, pumping rates, stream incision, well proximity to capture sources, aquifer hydraulic conductivity, and groundwater evapotranspiration extinction depth substantially affect capture map bias. Capture difference maps demonstrate that regions with large capture fraction differences are indicative of greater potential capture map bias. Understanding both spatial and temporal bias in capture maps derived from nonlinear groundwater flow models improves their utility and defensibility as conjunctive‐use management tools.  相似文献   
274.
Precariously balanced rocks (PBRs) are freestanding boulders that are precarious or fragile in the sense that they could be toppled by relatively low-amplitude earthquake ground motion. They are important in paleoseismology because their continued existence limits the amplitude of ground motion experienced at their location during their lifetime. In order to make quantitative use of PBRs for seismic hazard studies, one must determine when they attained their present state of fragility, that is, the point in time when the contact between the rocks and the pedestals on which they rest was exhumed from surrounding soil and the rock became vulnerable to earthquake ground motions. Cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating can be used for this purpose, but is complicated because nuclide production occurs throughout exhumation of the PBR, so the apparent exposure age of any part of the rock surface exceeds the time that the rock has actually been precariously balanced. Here we describe a method for determining the length of time that a PBR has been fragile by measuring cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations at several locations on the PBR surface, and linking them together with a forward model that accounts for nuclide production before, during, and after exhumation of the PBR. Fitting model to data yields the rate and timing of rock exhumation and thus the length of time the rock has been fragile. We use this method to show that an example PBR in southern California has been fragile for 18.7 ± 2.8 ka.  相似文献   
275.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)??a measure of air pressure difference across the Pacific Ocean, from Tahiti in the south-east to Darwin in the west??is one of the world??s most important climatic indices. The SOI is used to track and predict changes in both the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and the Walker Circulation (WC). During El Ni?o, for example, the WC weakens and the SOI tends to be negative. Climatic variations linked to changes in the WC have a profound influence on climate, ecosystems, agriculture, and societies in many parts of the world. Previous research has shown that (1) the WC and the SOI weakened in recent decades and that (2) the WC in climate models tends to weaken in response to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we examine changes in the SOI and air pressure across the Pacific in the observations and in numerous WCRP/CMIP3 climate model integrations for both the 20th and 21st centuries. The difference in mean-sea level air pressure (MSLP) between the eastern and western equatorial Pacific tends to weaken during the 21st century, consistent with previous research. Here we show that this primarily arises because of an increase in MSLP in the west Pacific and not a decline in the east. We also show, in stark contrast to expectations, that the SOI actually tends to increase during the 21st century, not decrease. Under global warming MSLP tends to increase at both Darwin and Tahiti, but tends to rise more at Tahiti than at Darwin. Tahiti lies in an extensive region where MSLP tends to rise in response to global warming. So while the SOI is an excellent indicator of interannual variability in both the equatorial MSLP gradient and the WC, it is a highly misleading indicator of long-term equatorial changes linked to global warming. Our results also indicate that the observed decline in the SOI in recent decades has been driven by natural, internally generated variability. The externally forced signal in the June?CDecember SOI during 2010 is estimated to be approximately 5% of the standard deviation of variability in the SOI during the 20th century. This figure is projected to increase to 40% by the end of the 21st century under the A2 SRES scenario. The 2010 global warming signal is already a major contributor to interdecadal variability in the SOI, equal to 45% of the standard deviation of 30-year running averages of the SOI. This figure is projected to increase to nearly 340% by the end of the 21st century. Implications that these discoveries have for understanding recent climatic change and for seasonal prediction are discussed.  相似文献   
276.
Many glacial deposits in the Quartermain Mountains, Antarctica present two apparent contradictions regarding the degradation of unconsolidated deposits. The glacial deposits are up to millions of years old, yet they have maintained their meter‐scale morphology despite the fact that bedrock and regolith erosion rates in the Quartermain Mountains have been measured at 0·1–4·0 m Ma?1. Additionally, ground ice persists in some Miocene‐aged soils in the Quartermain Mountains even though modeled and measured sublimation rates of ice in Antarctic soils suggest that without any recharge mechanisms ground ice should sublimate in the upper few meters of soil on the order of 103 to 105 years. This paper presents results from using the concentration of cosmogenic nuclides beryllium‐10 (10Be) and aluminum‐26 (26Al) in bulk sediment samples from depth profiles of three glacial deposits in the Quartermain Mountains. The measured nuclide concentrations are lower than expected for the known ages of the deposits, erosion alone does not always explain these concentrations, and deflation of the tills by the sublimation of ice coupled with erosion of the overlying till can explain some of the nuclide concentration profiles. The degradation rates that best match the data range 0·7–12 m Ma?1 for sublimation of ice with initial debris concentrations ranging 12–45% and erosion of the overlying till at rates of 0·4–1·2 m Ma?1. Overturning of the tills by cryoturbation, vertical mixing, or soil creep is not indicated by the cosmogenic nuclide profiles, and degradation appears to be limited to within a few centimeters of the surface. Erosion of these tills without vertical mixing may partially explain how some glacial deposits in the Quartermain Mountains maintain their morphology and contain ground ice close to the surface for millions of years. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
277.
It is important to estimate what light nonaqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) recovery can be practicably achieved from subsurface environments. Over the last decade, research to address this included a broad field program, laboratory measurements and experimentation, and modeling approaches. Here, we consolidate key findings from the research in the context of current literature and understanding, with a focus on a well-validated, multiphase multicomponent modeling approach to achieve estimates of reasonable endpoints for LNAPL recovery. Simple analytical models can provide approximate saturation distributions and estimates of LNAPL recoverability via transmissivity approximation, but are insufficient to predict LNAPL saturation- and composition-based recovery endpoints for various recovery technologies. This is because they cannot account for multiphase, multicomponent fate and transport and key processes such as hysteresis. Recent advances to improve estimates of the fraction of recoverable LNAPL and its transmissivity are summarized. These advances include further development and application of a well-validated model to characterize active LNAPL recovery endpoints. We present key factors that affect the determination of LNAPL recovery endpoints, and outline how recovery endpoints are affected by natural source zone depletion (NSZD—currently gaining acceptance as a LNAPL remediation option). Major factors include geo-physical characteristics of the formation, magnitude of an LNAPL release and partitioning properties of the key LNAPL constituents of concern. Based on the capabilities of the validated model, the paper also provides a basis to optimize LNAPL recovery efforts.  相似文献   
278.
The calibrations of the SORCE Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) are detailed and compared against the designed uncertainty budget. Several primary calibrations were accomplished in the laboratory before launch, including the aperture area, applied radiometer power, and radiometer absorption efficiency. Other parameters are calibrated or tracked on orbit, including the electronic servo system gain, the radiometer sensitivity to background thermal emission, and the degradation of radiometer efficiency. The as-designed uncertainty budget is refined with knowledge from the on-orbit performance.  相似文献   
279.
r-modes in neutron stars with crusts are damped by viscous friction at the crust–core boundary. The magnitude of this damping, evaluated by Bildsten & Ushomirsky (BU) under the assumption of a perfectly rigid crust, sets the maximum spin frequency for neutron stars spun up by accretion in low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs). In this paper we explore the mechanical coupling between the core r-modes and the elastic crust, using a toy model of a constant-density neutron star having a crust with a constant shear modulus. We find that, at spin frequencies in excess of ≈50 Hz, the r-modes strongly penetrate the crust. This reduces the relative motion (slippage) between the crust and the core compared with the rigid-crust limit. We therefore revise down, by as much as a factor of 102–103 , the damping rate computed by BU, significantly reducing the maximal possible spin frequency of neutron stars with solid crusts. The dependence of the crust–core slippage on the spin frequency is complicated, and is very sensitive to the physical thickness of the crust. If the crust is sufficiently thick, the curve of the critical spin frequency for the onset of the r-mode instability becomes multivalued for some temperatures; this is related to avoided crossings between the r-mode and higher-order torsional modes in the crust. The critical frequencies are comparable to the observed spins of neutron stars in LMXBs and millisecond pulsars.  相似文献   
280.
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