Past millennial solar forcing magnitude

A set of global climate model simulations for the last thousand years developed by the Max Planck Institute is compared with paleoclimate proxy data and instrumental data, focusing on surface temperatures for land areas between 30° and 75°N. The proxy data are obtained from six previously published Northern Hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions, here re-calibrated for consistency, which are compared with the simulations utilizing a newly developed statistical framework for ranking several competing simulations by means of their statistical distance against past climate variations. The climate model simulations are driven by either “low” or “high” solar forcing amplitudes (0.1 and 0.25 % smaller total solar irradiance in the Maunder Minimum period compared to the present) in addition to several other known climate forcings of importance. Our results indicate that the high solar forcing amplitude results in a poorer match with the hemispheric-scale temperature reconstructions and lends stronger statistical support for the low-amplitude solar forcing. However, results are likely conditional upon the sensitivity of the climate model used and strongly dependent on the choice of temperature reconstruction, hence a greater consensus is needed regarding the reconstruction of past temperatures as this currently provides a great source of uncertainty.     

Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin,Oregon

Stream temperature is a complex function of energy inputs including solar radiation and latent and sensible heat transfer. In streams where groundwater inputs are significant, energy input through advection can also be an important control on stream temperature. For an individual stream reach, models of stream temperature can take advantage of direct measurement or estimation of these energy inputs for a given river channel environment. Understanding spatial patterns of stream temperature at a landscape scale requires predicting how this environment varies through space, and under different atmospheric conditions. At the landscape scale, air temperature is often used as a surrogate for the dominant controls on stream temperature. In this study we show that, in regions where groundwater inputs are key controls and the degree of groundwater input varies in space, air temperature alone is unlikely to explain within-landscape stream temperature patterns. We illustrate how a geologic template can offer insight into landscape-scale patterns of stream temperature and its predictability from air temperature relationships. We focus on variation in stream temperature within headwater streams within the McKenzie River basin in western Oregon. In this region, as in other areas of the Pacific Northwest, fish sensitivity to summer stream temperatures continues to be a pressing environmental issue. We show that, within the McKenzie, streams which are sourced from deeper groundwater reservoirs versus shallow subsurface flow systems have distinct summer temperature regimes. Groundwater streams are colder, less variable and less sensitive to air temperature variation. We use these results from the western Oregon Cascade hydroclimatic regime to illustrate a conceptual framework for developing regional-scale indicators of stream temperature variation that considers the underlying geologic controls on spatial variation, and the relative roles played by energy and water inputs. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

DYNAMICS IN THE STRUCTURAL FORM OF PROPERTY TAXES*

Because the property tax is structurally tied to market values of dwellings through the assessment function, rapidly increasing market values may beget rapid increases in property taxes. Public awareness of this process was instrumental in California's 1978 passage of the Jarvis-Gann Amendment. Millage rates should be indexed to counterbalance changes in market values.     

A network-based telemetry architecture developed for the Martha'sVineyard Coastal Observatory

Underwater observatories with real-time data and virtually unlimited power transmission capabilities compared to traditional oceanographic moorings are beginning to provide scientists with continuous access to the coastal and open ocean. However, for any coastal observatory to serve as a cost-effective system for the collection of long-term scientific and environmental data, it must have a simple, upgradeable power and telemetry system and an instrument interface that is compatible with existing standards. It must be designed for extended environmental exposure and ease of service to avoid high maintenance costs. Most importantly, the observatory must be accessible to all potential users, including students, scientists, engineers, and policy makers. This strategy was applied to the design of the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory on the south shore of the island of Martha's Vineyard. The new facility, and in particular its system architecture, as developed by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution with support from the National Science Foundation, are described     

A GEOGRAPHIC CRITERION FOR IDENTIFYING PROPERTY-TAX ASSESSMENT INEQUITY

Equitable tax assessment requires that houses having the same market value must also have identical assessed values. With a map of dwellings' assessed-value-to-market-value ratios, it is possible to identify neighborhoods that are significantly overassessed or underassessed; this can lead to an understanding of the causes of misassessment. When houses or neighborhoods are demonstrated to be inequitably assessed, corrective action can be taken to eliminate the inequity. This essay is an example of the application of geographic techniques to spatial public-policy formulation.     

Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.     

Projection of economic impacts of climate change in sectors of Europe based on bottom up analysis: human health

This paper scopes a number of the health impacts of climate change in Europe (EU-27) quantitatively, using physical and monetary metrics. Temperature-related mortality effects, salmonellosis and coastal flooding-induced mental health impacts resulting from climate change are isolated from the effects of socio-economic change for the 2011–2040 and 2071–2100 time periods. The temperature-induced mortality effects of climate change include both positive and negative effects, for winter (cold) and summer (heat) effects, respectively, and have welfare costs (and benefits) of up to 100 billion Euro annually by the later time-period, though these are unevenly distributed across countries. The role of uncertainty in quantifying these effects is explored through sensitivity analysis on key parameters. This investigates climate model output, climate scenario, impact function, the existence and extent of acclimatisation, and the choice of physical and monetary metrics. While all of these lead to major differences in reported results, acclimatisation is particularly important in determining the size of the health impacts, and could influence the scale and form of public adaptation at the EU and national level. The welfare costs for salmonellosis from climate change are estimated at potentially several hundred million Euro annually by the period 2071–2100. Finally, a scoping assessment of the health costs of climate change from coastal flooding, focusing on mental health problems such as depression, are estimated at up to 1.5 billion Euro annually by the period 2071–2100.