Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part I – Assessment of Seismic Hazard

In this part of our study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Tulbagh was performed. The applied procedure is parametric and consists essentially of two steps. The first step is applicable to the area in the vicinity of Tulbagh and requires an estimation of the area-specific parameters, which, in this case, is the mean seismic activity rate, , the Gutenberg-Richter parameter, b, and the maximum regional magnitude, m_max. The second step is applicable to the Tulbagh site, and consists of parameters of distribution of amplitude of the selected ground motion parameter. The current application of the procedure provides an assessment of the PSHA in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA). The procedure permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The historical part of the catalogue only contains the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several subcatalogues, each assumed complete above a specified threshold of magnitude. In the analysis, the uncertainty in the determination of the earthquake was taken into account by incorporation of the concept of `apparent magnitude'. The PSHA technique has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard at individual sites without the subjective judgement involved in the definition of seismic source zones, when the specific active faults have not been mapped or identified, and where the causes of seismicity are not well understood. The results of the hazard assessment are expressed as probabilities that specified values of PGA will be exceeded during the chosen time intervals, and similarly for the spectral accelerations. A worst case scenario sketches the possibility of a maximum PGA of 0.30g. The results of the hazard assessment can be used as input to a seismic risk assessment.     

Experimental hydrogen isotope studies,II. Fractionations in the systems epidote-NaCl-H2O,epidote-CaCl2-H2O and epidote-seawater,and the hydrogen isotope composition of natural epidotes

The hydrogen isotope fractionation factors between epidote and aqueous 1 M and 4 M NaCl, 1 M CaCl₂ solutions, and between epidote and seawater, have been measured over the temperature range 250–550°C over which the degree of dissociation of dissolved species varies significantly. Measured fractionations at 350°C are decreased by up to 12‰, 9‰ and 7‰ relative to pure water in seawater, 1 M CaCl₂ and 1 M NaCl respectively, while above 500°C fractionations are not measurably dependent on fluid composition. Water—solution fractionation factors are derived which are generally applicable to the correction of mineral—water hydrogen isotope fractionations for the composition of the fluid phase.The hydrogen isotope compositions of natural epidotes are interpreted in the light of experimental fractionation data for situations where temperature, δD (fluid), and, in some cases, fluid chemistry, are independently known. Epidotes from active geothermal systems have hydrogen isotope quench temperatures consistent with or close to measured well temperatures unless the measured temperature has declined substantially since epidote formation or there is uncertainty in the D/H ratio of the water associated with the epidote because of isotopic heterogeneity in the well waters. Hydrothermal and metamorphic epidotes show closure temperatures of 175–225°C and 200–250°C. There is no evidence that retrograde metamorphic fluids, if present, are isotopically different from prograde fluids.The water-solution fractionations indicate strong solute-solvent interactions between 250 and 450°C and imply that both dissociated and associated species contribute to the fractionation effects through modification of the orientations and structure of the water molecules. Solute-solvent interactions become negligible at temperatures around 550°C.     

Book reviews

Marine decapod Crustacea of southern Australia: a guide to identification. By Gary C. B. Poore. Published in 2004 by CSIRO Publishing, P.O. Box 1139, Collingwood, VIC 3066, Australia. 608 p., hardcover. ISBN: 0–643–06906–2. Price: AU$180.00 (orders: publishing.sales@csiro.au).

Marine mammals: fisheries, tourism and management issues. Edited by Nicholas J. Gales, Mark A. Hindell and Roger Kirkwood. Published in 2003 by CSIRO Publishing, P.O. Box 1139, Collingwood, VIC 3066, Australia. 446 p., hardcover. ISBN: 0–643–06953–4. Price: AU$116 (orders: publishing.sales@csiro.au).

Freshwater fishes of north‐eastern Australia. By Brad Pusey, Mark Kennard, and Angela Arthington. Published in 2004 by CSIRO Publishing, P.O. Box 1139, Collingwood, VIC 3066, Australia. 700 p., hardcover. ISBN: 0–643–06966–6. Price: au$89.00 (orders: publishing.sales@csiro.au).     

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.     

Nurturing Relationships: the gardens of Greek and Vietnamese migrants in Marrickville,Sydney

First- and second-generation migrants represent about 40 per cent of the Australian population. With such a large and also diverse immigrant population, urban landscapes are significantly shaped by the gardens created by migrants. Two groups of Vietnamese and Greek migrants, in the inner suburb of Marrickville South in Sydney, were interviewed to examine the relationship between migration history and garden-making practices. Garden composition was influenced by migrants’ relationship with their homeland, in terms of length of time since migration, previous garden ownership, reason for migration and desire for cultural continuity, and by the size of the garden. Gardens also varied according to country of migration. The actual garden produce and type of environment created by the garden helped to emphasise and maintain cultural relationships, provide a space of nostalgia, and give a sense of ownership and control.     

Particle Filter-based assimilation algorithms for improved estimation of root-zone soil moisture under dynamic vegetation conditions

In this study, we implement Particle Filter (PF)-based assimilation algorithms to improve root-zone soil moisture (RZSM) estimates from a coupled SVAT-vegetation model during a growing season of sweet corn in North Central Florida. The results from four different PF algorithms were compared with those from the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) when near-surface soil moisture was assimilated every 3 days using both synthetic and field observations. In the synthetic case, the PF algorithm with the best performance used residual resampling of the states and obtained resampled parameters from a uniform distribution and provided reductions of 76% in root mean square error (RMSE) over the openloop estimates. The EnKF provided the RZSM and parameter estimates that were closer to the truth than the PF with an 84% reduction in RMSE. When field observations were assimilated, the PF algorithm that maintained maximum parameter diversity offered the largest reduction of 16% in root mean square difference (RMSD) over the openloop estimates. Minimal differences were observed in the overall performance of the EnKF and PF using field observations since errors in model physics affected both the filters in a similar manner, with maximum reductions in RMSD compared to the openloop during the mid and reproductive stages.     

Constraining basin thermal history and petroleum generation using palaeoclimate data in the Piceance Basin,Colorado

Careful assessment of basin thermal history is critical to modelling petroleum generation in sedimentary basins. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to constraining basin thermal history using palaeoclimate temperature reconstructions and study its impact on estimating source rock maturation and hydrocarbon generation in a terrestrial sedimentary basin. We compile mean annual temperature (MAT) estimates from macroflora assemblage data to capture past surface temperature variation for the Piceance Basin, a high‐elevation, intermontane, sedimentary basin in Colorado, USA. We use macroflora assemblage data to constrain the temporal evolution of the upper thermal boundary condition and to capture the temperature change with basin uplift. We compare these results with the case where the upper thermal boundary condition is based solely upon a simplified latitudinal temperature estimate with no elevation effect. For illustrative purposes, 2 one‐dimensional (1‐D) basin models are constructed using these two different upper thermal boundary condition scenarios and additional geological and geochemical input data in order to investigate the impact of the upper thermal boundary condition on petroleum source rock maturation and kerogen transformation processes. The basin model predictions indicate that the source rock maturation is very sensitive to the upper thermal boundary condition for terrestrial basins with variable elevation histories. The models show substantial differences in source rock maturation histories and kerogen transformation ratio over geologic time. Vitrinite reflectance decreases by 0.21%Ro, source rock transformation ratio decreases 10.5% and hydrocarbon mass generation decreases by 16% using the macroflora assemblage data. In addition, we find that by using the macroflora assemblage data, the modelled depth profiles of vitrinite reflectance better matches present‐day measurements. These differences demonstrate the importance of constraining thermal boundary conditions, which can be addressed by palaeotemperature reconstructions from palaeoclimate and palaeo‐elevation data for many terrestrial basins. Although the palaeotemperature reconstruction compiled for this study is region specific, the approach presented here is generally applicable for other terrestrial basin settings, particularly basins which have undergone substantial subaerial elevation change over time.     

Do free-ranging domestic goats show ‘landscapes of fear’? Patch use in response to habitat features and predator cues

One factor that influences foraging is predation risk. As a result, herbivores may not use landscapes uniformly due to spatial differences in perceived predation risk. Wild herbivores forage across these ‘landscapes of fear’; however, the extent to which domestic herbivores consider them is generally unknown. Using a grid of artificial food patches and measuring giving up densities (GUDs), we mapped landscapes of fear of free-ranging domestic goats on three substrates. In the first experiment, we related GUDs to landscape variables. Goats preferred feeding in open ground with firm substrate compared to a sandy riverbed or a rocky hillside. We suggest that differences relate to escape potential and the occurrence of ambush sites. Landscape variables that influenced feeding effort were patch visibility and plants next to a patch. In a second experiment, we increased predation risk by adding predator dung and urine into the habitats. In response, feeding effort declined across all three habitats. Furthermore, goats only responded to patch visibility and not plants next to the patches. Better sightlines increase predator detection and allow individuals to see group members. Our results indicate that predation risk influences the extent to which free-ranging domestic herbivores utilise landscapes.