Towards the Construction of Climate Change Scenarios

Climate impacts assessments need regional scenarios of climate change for a wide range of projected emissions. General circulation models (GCMs) are the most promising approach to providing such information, but as yet there is considerable uncertainty in their regional projections and they are still too costly to run for a large number of emission scenarios. Simpler models have been used to estimate global-mean temperature changes under a range of scenarios. In this paper we investigate whether a fixed pattern from a GCM experiment scaled by global-mean temperature changes from a simple model provides an acceptable estimate of the regional climate change over a range of scenarios. Changes estimated using this approximate approach are evaluated by comparing them with results from ensembles of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Five specific emissions scenarios are considered. For increases in greenhouse gases only, the 'error' in annual mean temperature for the cases considered is smaller than the sampling error due to the model's internal variability. The method may break down for scenarios of stabilisation of concentrations, because the patterns change as the model approaches equilibrium. The inclusion of large local perturbations due to sulphate aerosols can lead to significant deviations of the temperature pattern from that obtained using greenhouse gases alone. Combining separate patterns for the responses to greenhouse gases and aerosols may improve the accuracy of approximation. Finally, the accuracy of the scaling approach is more difficult to assess for deriving changes in regional precipitation because many of the regional changes are not statistically significant in the climate change projections considered here. If precipitation changes are only marginally significant in other models, the apparent disagreement between different models may be as much due to sampling error as to genuine differences in model response.     

Surface melt-driven seasonal behaviour (englacial and subglacial) from a soft-bedded temperate glacier recorded by in situ wireless probes

We investigate the spatial and temporal englacial and subglacial processes associated with a temperate glacier resting on a deformable bed using the unique Glacsweb wireless in situ probes (embedded in the ice and the till) combined with other techniques [including ground penetrating radar (GPR) and borehole analysis]. During the melt season (spring, summer and autumn), high surface melt leads to high water pressures in the englacial and subglacial environment. Winter is characterized by no surface melting on most days (‘base’) apart from a series of positive degree days. Once winter begins, a diurnal water pressure cycle is established in the ice and at the ice/sediment interface, with direct meltwater inputs from the positive degree days and a secondary slower englacial pathway with a five day lag. This direct surface melt also drives water pressure changes in the till. Till deformation occurred throughout the year, with the winter rate approximately 60% that of the melt season. We were able to show the bed comprised patches of till with different strengths, and were able to estimate their size, relative percentage and temporal stability. We show that the melt season is characterized by a high pressure distributed system, and winter by a low pressure channelized system. We contrast this with studies from Greenland (overlying rigid bedrock), where the opposite was found. We argue our results are typical of soft bedded glaciers with low englacial water content, and suggest this type of glacier can rapidly respond to surface-driven melt. Based on theoretical and field results we suggest that the subglacial hydrology comprises a melt season distributed system dominated by wide anastomosing broad flat channels and thin water sheets, which may become more channelized in winter, and more responsive to changes in meltwater inputs. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Late Holocene floodplain incision and alluvial fan formation in the central Grampian Highlands,Scotland: chronology,environment and implications

A section cut across an alluvial fan and the underlying floodplain terrace in the central Grampian Highlands provides an unusually complete record of late Holocene events. At ca. 2.7–2.4 cal kyr BP floodplain aggradation was replaced by net floodplain incision. Pollen evidence and charcoal counts provide no evidence for contemporaneous anthropogenic landscape change, and the timing of the transition suggests that it reflects an increase in high-magnitude erosive flood events following overall climatic deterioration. The overlying fan was deposited by torrential hyperconcentrated flows during three brief storm-generated depositional events at ca. 2.2–2.1, 1.9–1.8 and 0.9–0.7 cal kyr BP, separated and succeeded by prolonged periods of stability and peat accumulation. During these three events, a cumulative total of ca. 6750 m³ of sediment was deposited, probably in no more than a few hours over a timescale of two millennia. These findings imply that proposed links between human activity and the development of alluvial fans or debris cones require reassessment, and that different elements of the Holocene alluvial landscape have responded in different ways to the same climatic inputs. Aggregation of dating evidence relating to aggradation or incision of alluvial landforms at different scales therefore may produce misleading results. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Since turtles cannot talk: what beak movement sensors can tell us about the feeding ecology of neritic loggerhead turtles,Caretta caretta

Understanding the role that consumers play in an ecosystem requires knowledge about food selection and intake rates. However, such basic data are often difficult to obtain, particularly for marine animals that are not easy to observe. To overcome this problem, a beak movement sensor was employed on a free‐ranging loggerhead turtle in a neritic foraging habitat at the Domitian littoral (SW Italy). In combination with gastrointestinal content analysis from six turtles found dead in the same area we sought to identify which beak movement patterns were associated with which prey type, and to quantify the ingestion of the various prey types. Brachyuran crabs (100% occurrence), in particular Liocarcinus vernalis, and small molluscs (66% occurrence) were found most frequently in the stomach and intestine of the turtles. Beak movements revealed average ingestion rates of (mean ± SE) 0.27 ± 0.13 food items per minute and that feeding occurred predominantly during dives >4 m and during early morning and evening. Interestingly, the time spent feeding amounted to only 2.2% of the total observation time, whereas feeding‐associated dives added up to just above 10% of the total time. We thus established that loggerhead turtles in this area are specialised on brachyuran crabs, on which they prey with high success during the short time dedicated to foraging. This information strengthens our knowledge about turtle–prey and turtle–habitat interactions, which are essential data to delineate the role that turtles play in this and similar marine ecosystems. Moreover, since the same area is also intensively used by the regional bottom trawl fishery, our results have important conservation implications, because they clearly show the time of day and water depths for which fishing activity should be regulated to reduce the number of turtles that are currently being incidentally caught in this area.     

A log‐normal spectral analysis of inorganic grain‐size distributions from a Canadian boreal lake core: Towards refining depositional process proxy data from high latitude lakes

Better methods for interpreting grain‐size spectra will enhance current understanding of past transport–depositional processes. A high‐resolution inorganic grain‐size dataset has been measured from a freeze core extracted from ‘Alberta Lake E’ a boreal fresh water lake 40 km east of the Athabasca Oil Sands in north‐eastern Alberta, Canada. The grain‐size spectra are remarkably consistent throughout the core, exhibiting a structure comprising six persistent grain‐size distributions below ca 250 μm, plus a rare medium‐sand distribution. Automated deconvolution of the grain‐size spectra produced poor results. Constraining the modes of two of the distributions produced deconvolution solutions that were statistically excellent and consistent with the structure of each spectrum. Statistical analysis of the ‘constrained’ solutions indicates that deconvolution successfully extracted independent grain‐size populations. Conversely, the multimodal spectra generate traditional measures (for example, mean grain size) that are inconsistent combinations of different individual populations and thus are poor proxies of transport–depositional processes. Alberta Lake E is situated in a boreal wetland landscape where sediment delivery is dominated by overland flow transport during spring melt. This context means that the Alberta Lake E grain‐size spectra can be interpreted to reflect: (i) a bedload component transported during short‐duration high discharge events that reflect the intensity of the melt; and (ii) a finer suspended load component representing material whose magnitude is controlled by the volume of the spring melt. Stratigraphically, bedload and suspended load populations demonstrate different short‐wavelength and long‐wavelength cyclicity, suggesting that spring melt is likely to be driven by cyclic external forcing factors. The links between the grain‐size spectra and spring melt have potential for generating proxy records that better capture the external controls over spring melt in boreal systems and the risks associated with these energetic hydrodynamics. This is exemplified by the coarsest Alberta Lake E distributions, which indicate that more intense spring‐melt dynamics occurred in pre‐historical times.     

Controls on the contemporary distribution of lake thecamoebians (testate amoebae) within the Greater Toronto Area and their potential as water quality indicators

Thecamoebians were examined from 71 surface sediment samples collected from 21 lakes and ponds in the Greater Toronto Area to (1) elucidate the controls on faunal distribution in modern lake environments; and (2) to consider the utility of thecamoebians in quantitative studies of water quality change. This area was chosen because it includes a high density of kettle and other lakes which are threatened by urban development and where water quality has deteriorated locally as a result of contaminant inputs, particularly nutrients. Fifty-eight samples yielded statistically significant thecamoebian populations. The most diverse faunas (highest Shannon Diversity Index values) were recorded in lakes beyond the limits of urban development, although the faunas of all lakes showed signs of sub-optimal conditions. The assemblages were divided into five clusters using Q-mode cluster analysis, supported by Detrended Correspondence Analysis. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) was used to examine species-environment relationships and to explain the observed clusterings. Twenty-four measured environmental variables were considered, including water property attributes (e.g., pH, conductivity, dissolved oxygen), substrate characteristics, sediment-based phosphorus (Olsen P) and 11 environmentally available metals. The thecamoebian assemblages showed a strong association with phosphorus, reflecting the eutrophic status of many of the lakes, and locally to elevated conductivity measurements, which appear to reflect road salt inputs associated with winter de-icing operations. Substrate characteristics, total organic carbon and metal contaminants (particularly Cu and Mg) also influenced the faunas of some samples. A series of partial CCAs show that of the measured variables, sedimentary phosphorus has the largest influence on assemblage distribution, explaining 6.98% (P < 0.002) of the total variance. A transfer function was developed for sedimentary phosphorus (Olsen P) using 58 samples from 15 of the studied lakes. The best performing model was based on weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (WA Inv, r_jack² = 0.33, RMSEP = 102.65 ppm). This model was applied to a small modern thecamoebian dataset from a eutrophic lake in northern Ontario to predict phosphorus and performed satisfactorily. This preliminary study confirms that thecamoebians have considerable potential as quantitative water quality indicators in urbanising regions, particularly in areas influenced by nutrient inputs and road salts.     

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Book reviews

APPLIED GEOGRAPHY: Issues, Questions and Concerns (Geo Journal Library Vol. 15) edited by M. S. Kenzer. 16 × 24 cm, x and 210 pages. Kluwer: Dordrecht 1989 (ISBN 0 7923 04381).

WINE AND THE VINE: An Historical Geography of Viticulture and the Wine Trade by T. Unwin. 16 × 24 cm, xvi and 409 pages. Routledge: London 1991 (ISBN 0 415 13120 6) $A155.00 (hard); distributed by The Law Book Co.

WATERFRONT SYDNEY 1860–1920 by G. Aplin and J. Storey. 26 × 18 cm. 144 pages. Allen & Unwin: Sydney 1991 (first published 1984) (ISBN 1 86373 098 2) $A24.95 (soft).

Australian Geographer 23 (2), November 1992

INDUSTRIAL LOCATION: Principles and Policies (Second Edition) by K. Chapman and D. F. Walker. 15 × 23 cm, xiii and 322 pages. Basil Black‐well: Oxford 1991 (ISBN 0 631 16789 7) $A39.95 (soft).

INTERNATIONALISATION OF AUSTRALIA'S SERVICE INDUSTRIES by J. V. Langdale. 17 × 25 cm, iv and 373 pages. Australian Government Publishing Service, for Department of Industry, Technology and Commerce: Canberra 1991 (ISBN 0 644 13841 6).

TOURISM AND GOLD IN KAKADU: The Impact of Current and Potential Natural Resource Use on the Northern Territory Economy by B. Knapman, O. Stanley and J. Lea. 21 × 29 cm, vi and 49 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1179 4).

ABORIGINAL AUSTRALIA AND THE ‘NEW FEDERALISM’ INITIATIVE (Discussion Paper No. 2) by G. J. Crough. 14 × 21 cm, 42 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1325 8).

AUSTRALIAN NATIONHOOD AND OUTBACK INDIGENOUS PEOPLES (Discussion Paper No. 1) by P. Jull. 14 × 21 cm, 38 pages. North Australia Research Unit, Australian National University: Darwin 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1309 6).

MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC (Pacific Research Monograph No. 24) edited by J. Connell. 17 × 25 cm, xii and 199 pages. National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University: Canberra 1990 (ISBN 0 07315 0668 5) $A25.00 (soft).

POPIULESIN BLONG HONIARA: Olketa Popiulesin Map Blong 1986 Sensis. HONIARA: 1986 Census Atlas (Statistics Office Occasional Paper No. 4 / Board of Development Studies Monograph No. 1) by A.C. Walsh. 21 × 29 cm, vii and 95 pages. Department of Statistics: Honiara and Board of Development Studies, Massey University: Palmerston North 1990 (ISSN 0114 8834) $NZ34.00 in New Zealand, $NZ38.00 elsewhere (soft).

DOI MOI: Vietnam's Renovation Policy and Performance (Political and Social Change Monograph No. 14) edited by D. K. Forbes, T. H. Hull, D. G. Marr and B. Brogan. 15 × 22 cm, xiv and 263 pages. Department of Political and Social Change, Australian National University: Canberra 1991 (ISBN 0 7315 1303 7).     

Fe and O isotope composition of meteorite fusion crusts: Possible natural analogues to chondrule formation?

Meteorite fusion crust formation is a brief event in a high‐temperature (2000–12,000 K) and high‐pressure (2–5 MPa) regime. We studied fusion crusts and bulk samples of 10 ordinary chondrite falls and 10 ordinary chondrite finds. The fusion crusts show a typical layering and most contain vesicles. All fusion crusts are enriched in heavy Fe isotopes, with δ⁵⁶Fe values up to +0.35‰ relative to the solar system mean. On average, the δ⁵⁶Fe of fusion crusts from finds is +0.23‰, which is 0.08‰ higher than the average from falls (+0.15‰). Higher δ⁵⁶Fe in fusion crusts of finds correlate with bulk chondrite enrichments in mobile elements such as Ba and Sr. The δ⁵⁶Fe signature of meteorite fusion crusts was produced by two processes (1) evaporation during atmospheric entry and (2) terrestrial weathering. Fusion crusts have either the same or higher δ¹⁸O (0.9–1.5‰) than their host chondrites, and the same is true for Δ¹⁷O. The differences in bulk chondrite and fusion crust oxygen isotope composition are explained by exchange of oxygen between the molten surface of the meteorites with the atmosphere and weathering. Meteorite fusion crust formation is qualitatively similar to conditions of chondrule formation. Therefore, fusion crusts may, at least to some extent, serve as a natural analogue to chondrule formation processes. Meteorite fusion crust and chondrules exhibit a similar extent of Fe isotope fractionation, supporting the idea that the Fe isotope signature of chondrules was established in a high‐pressure environment that prevented large isotope fractionations. The exchange of O between a chondrule melt and an ¹⁶O‐poor nebula as the cause for the observed nonmass dependent O isotope compositions in chondrules is supported by the same process, although to a much lower extent, in meteorite fusion crusts.