Cristobalite in a rhyolitic lava dome: evolution of ash hazard

Prolonged and heavy exposure to particles of respirable, crystalline silica-rich volcanic ash could potentially cause chronic, fibrotic disease, such as silicosis, in individuals living in areas of frequent ash fall. Here, we show that the rhyolitic ash erupted from Chaitén volcano, Chile, in its dome-forming phase, contains increased levels of the silica polymorph cristobalite, compared to its initial plinian eruption. Ash erupted during the initial, explosive phase (2–5 May 2008) contained approximately 2 wt.% cristobalite, whereas ash generated after dome growth began (from 21 May 2008) contains 13–19 wt.%. The work suggests that active obsidian domes crystallise substantial quantities of cristobalite on time-scales of days to months, probably through vapour-phase crystallisation on the walls of degassing pathways, rather than through spherulitic growth in glassy obsidian. The ash is fine-grained (9.7–17.7 vol.% <4 μm in diameter, the respirable range) and the particles are mostly angular. Sparse, fibre-like particles were confirmed to be feldspar or glass.     

High Purge Volume Sampling—A New Paradigm for Subslab Soil Gas Monitoring

Subslab soil gas sampling and analysis is a common line of evidence for assessing human health risks associated with subsurface vapor intrusion to indoor air for volatile organic compounds; however, conventional subslab sampling methods have generated data that show substantial spatial and temporal variability, which often makes the interpretation difficult. A new method of monitoring has been developed and tested that is based on a concept of integrating samples over a large volume of soil gas extracted from beneath the floor slab of a building to provide a spatially averaged subslab concentration. Regular field screening is also conducted to assess the trend of concentration as a function of the volume removed to provide insight into the spatial distribution of vapors at progressive distances away from the point of extraction. This approach minimizes the risk of failing to identify the areas of elevated soil vapor concentrations that may exist between discrete sample locations, and can provide information covering large buildings with fewer holes drilled through the floor. The new method also involves monitoring the extraction flow rate and transient vacuum response for mathematical analysis to help interpret the vapor concentration data and to support an optimal design for any subslab venting system that may be needed.     

Submerged early Holocene coastal and terrestrial landforms on the inner shelves of Atlantic Canada

Coastal and terrestrial landforms that formed with lowered relative sea levels during the early postglacial period in Atlantic Canada were submerged during the Holocene transgression. However, these landforms are seldom seen on sea floor imagery. Factors that contribute to their destruction include the brevity of sea level lowstands and high wave energy on shallow modern shelves. We identify one situation within which preservation has been relatively good: large coastal lakes that existed for many thousands of years before being connected to the ocean by rising sea level in the mid-Holocene. We describe Bedford Basin, near Halifax, Nova Scotia, and deal more exhaustively with the Bras d'Or Lakes, an inland sea in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. The preservation of shore platforms, barrier beaches and spits, and fluvial systems, was due to the rapid onset of the transgression and the relatively low wave energy in the subsequent marine phases. The well-preserved early Holocene coastlines are highly favourable targets in the search for evidence of human occupation in the early- to mid-Holocene.     

The Production of Investment Returns in Spatially Extensive Financial Markets

Investment returns are produced by combining financial assets with human capital, the decision-making protocols of investment houses, and the electronic infrastructure that supports the flow of information about investment. At the center of the production process stand senior managers; their power and authority in the production process is fundamental to the performance of investment organizations. This article provides a model of the production of investment returns in financial centers and spatially extensive financial markets. We begin with Coase's theory of the firm but go beyond models of the firm that represent commodity-producing industries. Having substantiated the model of investment management, it is applied to institutions that seek investment returns in geographically extensive financial markets. Operating in financial markets at a distance from home jurisdictions is an increasingly important aspect of investment management. Given recent turmoil in global financial markets, financial houses have sought higher rates of return from markets in which they have little direct experience. At issue is how different types of financial organizations (large and small, growing and declining) produce investment returns in this new environment.     

Climate change links fate of glaciers and an endemic alpine invertebrate

Climate warming in the mid- to high-latitudes and high-elevation mountainous regions is occurring more rapidly than anywhere else on Earth, causing extensive loss of glaciers and snowpack. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on alpine stream biota, especially invertebrates. Here, we show a strong linkage between regional climate change and the fundamental niche of a rare aquatic invertebrate—the meltwater stonefly Lednia tumana—endemic to Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, Canada and USA. L. tumana has been petitioned for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act due to climate-change-induced glacier loss, yet little is known on specifically how climate impacts may threaten this rare species and many other enigmatic alpine aquatic species worldwide. During 14 years of research, we documented that L. tumana inhabits a narrow distribution, restricted to short sections (~500 m) of cold, alpine streams directly below glaciers, permanent snowfields, and springs. Our simulation models suggest that climate change threatens the potential future distribution of these sensitive habitats and the persistence of L. tumana through the loss of glaciers and snowfields. Mountaintop aquatic invertebrates are ideal early warning indicators of climate warming in mountain ecosystems. Research on alpine invertebrates is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and ecosystem change.     

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.     

The reluctance of resource-users to adopt seasonal climate forecasts to enhance resilience to climate variability on the rangelands

As the impacts of climate-change on resource-dependent industries manifest, there is a commensurate effort to identify and implement strategies to reduce them. Yet, even when useful knowledge and tools exist, there can be poor adoption of adaptation strategies. We examine the reasons behind sub-optimal adoption of seasonal climate forecasts by graziers for managing climate variability. We surveyed 100 graziers in north-east Queensland, Australia and examined the influence of adaptive capacity, resource-dependency and forecast-perception on uptake. Technical perceptions were not important. Strategic skills, environmental awareness and social capital were. Results suggest that social factors (but not technical factors) are significant. These insights are important for adaptation planning and for maximising the resilience of communities and industries dependent on climate-sensitive resources.     

Contrasting isotopic signatures between anthropogenic and geogenic Zn and evidence for post-depositional fractionation processes in smelter-impacted soils from Northern France

Zinc isotopes have been studied along two smelter-impacted soil profiles sampled near one of the largest Pb and Zn processing plants in Europe located in northern France, about 50 km south of Lille. Mean δ⁶⁶Zn values along these two soil profiles range from +0.22 ± 0.17‰ (2σ) to +0.34 ± 0.17‰ (2σ) at the lowest horizons and from +0.38 ± 0.45‰ (2σ) to +0.76 ± 0.14‰ (2σ) near the surface. The δ⁶⁶Zn values in the lowest horizons of the soils are interpreted as being representative of the local geochemical background (mean value +0.31 ± 0.38‰), whereas heavier δ⁶⁶Zn values near the surface of the two soils are related to anthropogenic Zn. This anthropogenic Zn occurs in the form of franklinite (ZnFe₂O₄)-bearing slag grains originating from processing wastes at the smelter site and exhibiting δ⁶⁶Zn values of +0.81 ± 0.20‰ (2σ). The presence of franklinite is indicated by EXAFS analysis of the topsoil samples from both soil profiles as well as by micro-XANES analysis of the surface horizon of a third smelter-impacted soil from a distant site. These results indicate that naturally occurring Zn and smelter-derived Zn exhibit significantly different δ⁶⁶Zn values, which suggests that zinc isotopes can be used to distinguish between geogenic and anthropogenic sources of Zn in smelter-impacted soils. In addition to a possible influence of additional past sources of light Zn (likely Zn-sulfides and Zn-sulfates directly emitted by the smelter), the light δ⁶⁶Zn values in the surface horizons compared to smelter-derived slag materials are interpreted as resulting mainly from fractionation processes associated with biotic and/or abiotic pedological processes (Zn-bearing mineral precipitation, Zn complexation by organic matter, and plant uptake of Zn). This conclusion emphasizes the need for additional Zn isotopic studies before being able to use Zn isotopes to trace sources and pathways of this element in surface environments.     

Forecasting ocean wave energy: The ECMWF wave model and time series methods

Recently, the technology has been developed to make wave farms commercially viable. Since electricity is perishable, utilities will be interested in forecasting ocean wave energy. The horizons involved in short-term management of power grids range from as little as a few hours to as long as several days. In selecting a method, the forecaster has a choice between physics-based models and statistical techniques. A further idea is to combine both types of models. This paper analyzes the forecasting properties of a well-known physics-based model, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Wave Model, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regressions and neural networks. Thirteen data sets at locations in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the Gulf of Mexico are tested. The quantities to be predicted are the significant wave height, the wave period, and the wave energy flux. In the initial tests, the ECMWF model and the statistical models are compared directly. The statistical models do better at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1-5 h range. The ECMWF model is superior at longer horizons. The convergence point, at which the two methods achieve comparable degrees of accuracy, is in the area of 6 h. By implication, the physics-based model captures the underlying signals at lower frequencies, while the statistical models capture relationships over shorter intervals. Further tests are run in which the forecasts from the ECMWF model are used as inputs in regressions and neural networks. The combined models yield more accurate forecasts than either one individually.     

Fluid evolution in base‐metal sulphide mineral deposits in the metamorphic basement rocks of southwest Scotland and Northern Ireland

The Dalradian and Ordovician–Silurian metamorphic basement rocks of southwest Scotland and Northern Ireland host a number of base‐metal sulphide‐bearing vein deposits associated with kilometre‐scale fracture systems. Fluid inclusion microthermometric analysis reveals two distinct fluid types are present at more than half of these deposits. The first is an H₂O–CO₂–salt fluid, which was probably derived from devolatilization reactions during Caledonian metamorphism. This stage of mineralization in Dalradian rocks was associated with base‐metal deposition and occurred at temperatures between 220 and 360°C and pressures of between 1.6 and 1.9 kbar. Caledonian mineralization in Ordovician–Silurian metamorphic rocks occurred at temperatures between 300 and 360°C and pressures between 0.6 and 1.9 kbar. A later, probably Carboniferous, stage of mineralization was associated with base‐metal sulphide deposition and involved a low to moderate temperature (T_h 70 to 240°C), low to moderate salinity (0 to 20 wt% NaCl eq.), H₂O–salt fluid. The presence of both fluids at many of the deposits shows that the fractures hosting the deposits acted as long‐term controls for fluid migration and the location of Caledonian metalliferous fluids as well as Carboniferous metalliferous fluids. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.