Numerical Study on Tidal Mixing in the Bohai Sea

The spatial and temporal variability of tidal mixing in Bohai Sea is studied using a numerical approach. In calculating tidal mixing, accurate barotropic tidal current is obtained via a harmonic analysis package utilizing the simulated current output from a high-resolution regional ocean model. And a “small-scale” roughness map is adopted to describe the detailed topographic features of Bohai Sea. It is shown that the tidal mixing estimated in Bohai Sea is much higher than the level of global background, and fluctuates considerably at some regions within a single day. In Liaodong Bay, Bohai Bay and Bohai Strait, the mixing varies greatly, with the peak value of O (10^?2) m² s^?1. The order of magnitude of mixing in Laizhou Bay is about O (10^?5～10^?3) m² s^?1. Mixing with background level of O (10^?5) m² s^?1 only appears in central area. Result also shows that rough topography plays relatively a more important role than tidal current in enhancing diapycnal mixing in Bohai Sea. The distributions of tidal mixing in selected sections reveal that the vertical stratification in Bohai Sea is not obvious, generally renders a barotropic structure.     

PBO钻孔应变同震响应分析

以2017-09-08墨西哥8.1 级地震为例,分析14个PBO综合钻孔应变仪和地震仪同址记录的地震波信号,结果表明,应变仪记录的地震波符合射线传播规律。对不同震中距的站点进行基于S变换的应变仪与地震仪的同震响应特征分析,二者同震响应一致性较好,应变仪频段主要在0.25 Hz以下。取震后1 h应变数据进行分析发现,同震阶段应变主方向指向震中。     

舟山外钓山海岸边坡泥沙动力与冲淤演变特征

通过对研究区海域的水文泥沙进行现场测验,对比1960-1962年海图、1995年和2001年水下地形图三期地形数据和分析浅地层探测数据等方法,分析了舟山外钓山岛西海岸边坡的水动力、悬浮泥沙及冲淤特征,探讨了海岸边坡发育演变的模式与机制。研究结果表明,在基岩岬角海岸与潮流深槽的边界控制及往复潮流的作用下,舟山外钓山岛西海岸边坡演变是一个"上淤下冲"的模式,即边坡变陡至边坡土体失稳并在不定期外力触发下滑塌堆积坡脚,然后上部重新淤积、下部滑坡体不断被侵蚀的循环过程。     

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Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model. II: analysis,calibration and validation

The model presented in the complementary document entitled, Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model I: parameter application and analysis is analysed, calibrated and validated in this paper. The accuracy of simulated hydrographs is analysed by means of the efficiency defined by Nash and Sutcliffe. The sensitivity of the influence of five parameters on the behaviour of the model developed is analysed. Two different calibration and validation processes of Reservoir rainfall‐runoff geomorphological model are performed in Aixola watershed. Twelve events have been selected for calibrations and 25 for validations. With the first calibration and validation process, the model parameters are set by assigning the medians' values of the distributions obtained by means of the optimum results. The second process is performed by calibrating the most determinant parameter in the adjustment, which is the one that indicates the proportion of infiltrated water that is retained and does not flow; this is done with an empirical formulation depending on the event characteristics. Subsequently, the obtained results are validated. This last process has achieved very good adjustments in both calibrated and validated events. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rockfall hazard in the Daisekkei Valley, the northern Japanese Alps, on 11 August 2005

This paper describes a rockfall event in the Daisekkei Valley of Mount Shirouma-dake (2,932 m), the northern Japanese Alps. The rockfall occurred on a steep cliff comprising well-jointed felsites and produced debris of ≥8,000 m³. Most debris was deposited on an elongated snowpatch located immediately beneath the cliff, and it caused casualties among people who were trekking along a trail on the snowpatch. Additionally, a large rock block slipped 1 km on the snowpatch. The rockfall could have been due to the differential retreat of the rockwall, which contains areas of high- and low-density joints. Seasonal and diurnal freeze–thaw activities and snow avalanches and wash appear to be important factors responsible for the retreat. Although some rock blocks that can collapse further remain on the rockwall, the position of the mountain trail in the Daisekkei Valley is fixed. Fundamental reform of tourism systems for climbers, including education on natural hazards, is required.     

Determining the size of spatial clusters in focused tests: Comparing two methods by means of simulation in a GIS

 Based on a four-point evaluation system consisting of accuracy, consistency, power, and chance to commit type I errors, this study compares Tango's minimum p (MinP) and Stone's maximum relative risk (MaxRR) methods for detecting focused cluster size through simulations in GIS. It reveals that the MinP method is more effective than the MaxRR method. The MinP method exhibits higher levels of accuracy and consistency; and its power and chance to commit type I errors are similar to the MinP method. The MaxRR method has a tendency to underestimate the cluster size, while the MinP method tends to overestimate the cluster size, particularly when the clusters are relatively big and have high relative risk levels. In addition, the MinP method seems to be most effective in revealing the size of clusters when clusters are neither too strong nor too weak. The lowest detection rates for clustering occur when the clustering signal is relatively weak, which is easily understandable. In practice, it might be useful to use both the methods to estimate a range of possible cluster sizes, where the MaxRR method indicates the lower estimate, while the MinP method gives the higher estimate of the cluster size. Received: 24 August 2002 / Accepted: 20 December 2002     

由PREM地球模型计算的洛夫数

本文选取迄今为止最完善的地球模型ＰＲＥＭ,利用它所定义的地球内部基本间断面及所给物质密度的弹性等参数分布,通过求解弹性地幔运动方程,得到形变位移矢量,由此计算出二阶洛夫数。本文的理论值与观测结果符合良好。     

Uncertainty propagation in orbital mechanics via tensor decomposition

Uncertainty forecasting in orbital mechanics is an essential but difficult task, primarily because the underlying Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) is defined on a relatively high dimensional (6-D) state–space and is driven by the nonlinear perturbed Keplerian dynamics. In addition, an enormously large solution domain is required for numerical solution of this FPE (e.g. encompassing the entire orbit in the \(x-y-z\) subspace), of which the state probability density function (pdf) occupies a tiny fraction at any given time. This coupling of large size, high dimensionality and nonlinearity makes for a formidable computational task, and has caused the FPE for orbital uncertainty propagation to remain an unsolved problem. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper presents the first successful direct solution of the FPE for perturbed Keplerian mechanics. To tackle the dimensionality issue, the time-varying state pdf is approximated in the CANDECOMP/PARAFAC decomposition tensor form where all the six spatial dimensions as well as the time dimension are separated from one other. The pdf approximation for all times is obtained simultaneously via the alternating least squares algorithm. Chebyshev spectral differentiation is employed for discretization on account of its spectral (“super-fast”) convergence rate. To facilitate the tensor decomposition and control the solution domain size, system dynamics is expressed using spherical coordinates in a noninertial reference frame. Numerical results obtained on a regular personal computer are compared with Monte Carlo simulations.