A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.     

Occurrence of PSP-producing dinoflagellate Alexandrium tamiyavanichii in Bingo-Nada, the central coastal water of the Seto Inland Sea, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan

During surveillance of the distribution of the paralytic shellfish poison (PSP)-producing dinoflagellate in 2003, 2004 and 2005 along the coastlines of the Seto Inland Sea, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan, some species of toxic phytoplankton were isolated from the eastern coasts, Bingo-Nada, the central regions of the Seto Inland Sea. It was rather unexpectedly revealed from the basis of the morphological characteristics that they were unambiguously identified as Alexandrium tamiyavanichii and Alexandrium catenella. Two strains (ATY041106, ATY051018) of A. tamiyavanichii showed a specific toxicity of 38.7 x 10(-6) and 111.5 x 10(-6)MU/cell, respectively. These values seemed to be several times or much higher than that of A. catenella (AC030816, AC040614), having a specific toxicity of 4.5 x 10(-6) and 4.1 x 10(-6)MU/cell, respectively, isolated in the same area. From the results of HPLC-furuorometric analysis, it revealed that the toxins in ATY041106 exist almost exclusively as beta-epimers (C2, GTX3, GTX4), which accounted for 72.7 mol%. The toxin profiles of this strain are featured by the presence of a large amount of GTX3 (59.1 mol%) and a small amount (20.6%) of C1 and 2 in comparison with the PSP compositions of A. tamarense, which is isolated as the main responsible species in Hiroshima Bay, a western part of coastal sea in Hiroshima Prefecture. On the other hand, it revealed that the toxin profiles of two strains (AC030816, AC040614) of A. catenella exist almost exclusively as beta-epimers (C2, GTX3, GTX4), which accounted for 81.8 and 56.5 mol%, as the same manner. The toxin profiles of these two strains are featured by the presence of a large amount of C2 (80.5 and 46.3 mol%) in comparison with the PSP compositions of A. tamiyavanichii. To our knowledge, this is the first record to show the distribution and harmful influence of A. tamiyavanichii and A. catenella in Bingo-Nada in Hiroshima Prefecture. Though contamination of bivalves with these PSP-producing planktons in this area has not occurred yet so far, attention should be paid to this species as well as the other causative dinoflagellate from the stand point of public health and food hygiene.     

Characteristics of the burial environment related to quartz SAR-OSL dating at St. Vincent Island, NW Florida, USA

St. Vincent Island, on the northwest Gulf coast of Florida, USA, preserves a well-developed beach ridge plain that began to form 4000 years ago based on inferred ages of pottery artefact assemblages. Seven vibra cores up to 2.88 m in length (uncompacted sediment) were retrieved from six ridges across the island. The single-aliquot regenerative-dose (SAR) procedure was used to obtain two optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) ages per core at different depths within each core.

The geographically youngest ridges gave ages of 370±50–1900±300 years, yielding an inter-ridge accumulation time of 150 years assuming uniform sediment accumulation. The oldest ridge sets yielded ages of 2700±400–2800±300 years. Dating results are evaluated in terms of equivalent dose (D_E) distributions and other characteristics in relation to aspects of the burial environment, including pedogenesis.     

Interaction between magnetic clouds and the heliospheric current sheet at 1 AU as it is observed by one single observation point

The effect of Magnetic Clouds (MCs) on the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) local structure is yet an open question. Although it is widely accepted that a magnetic cloud has an important effect on the HCS shape, their structural relation, either the MC is part of the HCS or not, is not completely solved. Moreover, the problem grows up when trying to investigate three dimensional structures using one single observation point. We propose an approach to the MC–HCS study using magnetic models for the MC and local HCS structures, which are able of determining their relative orientation from one single spacecraft data. Three events have been selected in which an MC passage was observed close to HCS crossings. The results confirm the strong effect of MC passage on the HCS local orientation and they seem to be consistent with MCs propagating out of the HCS at 1 AU.     

Relative importance of dust inputs and aquatic biological production as sources of lake sediments in an oligotrophic lake in a semi‐arid area

The dustfall (DF) and mass sedimentation rate (MSR) in Lake Alchichica, Central Mexico, were studied from June 2006 to June 2008. DF ranged between 0·11–0·93 g m^?2 d^?1 in the warm and rainy season and 0·54–1·21 g m^?2 d^?1 in the cold and dry season. MSR varied from 0·52–2·40 g m^?2 d^?1 in the stratification season to 1·14–5·07 g m^?2 d^?1 in the circulation season. The timing of the highest fluxes of DF and MSR is most likely a product of several factors coinciding during the cold and dry season: (a) availability of dust sources and the presence of strong winds (>7·5 m s^?1) in the DF case, and (b) the circulation period of the lake and the availability of nutrients in the MSR case. As expected, the DF in Alchichica was high and similar to that found in other arid and semi‐arid areas. However, the MSR was higher than that reported for other oligotrophic lakes. Particles captured in the aerial traps consisted mainly of detrital minerals; in contrast, particles found in the water traps were mostly biogenic and, to a lesser extent, detrital minerals. The MSR was one to seven times higher than the DF. In spite of the oligotrophic status of Lake Alchichica, the large size of the settled phytoplankton (autochthonous, waterborne) is what leads to the high MSR, which surpasses the DF (allochthonous, airborne) derived from whirlwinds originating in easily eroded terrains that are characteristic of arid/semi‐arid areas. Our results indicate that caution must be taken in considering that the DF amount measured through DF collectors located at the lake shore does actually represent the DF entering into the lake. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bayesian methodology to update the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for updating the seismic hazard curves. The methodology is based on the comparison of predictive exceedance rates of a fixed acceleration level (given by the seismic hazard curves) and the observed exceedance rates in some selected sites. The application of the methodology needs, firstly, the definition of a prior probabilistic seismic hazard assessment based in a logic tree. Each main branch corresponds to a probabilistic model of calculus of seismic hazard. The method considers that, initially (or a priori), the weights of all branches of the logic tree are equivalent. Secondly, the method needs to compile the observations in the region. They are introduced in a database containing the recorded acceleration data (during the instrumental period). Nevertheless, the instrumental period in stable zones (as France) shows only very low acceleration levels recorded during a short observation period. Then, a method to enlarge the REX (number of observations) is presented taking into account the historical data and defining “synthetic” accelerations in the sites of observation. The synthetic REX allows to expand the period of observation and to increase the acceleration thresholds used in the Bayesian updating process. The application of the Bayesian approach leads to a new and more objective definition of the weights of each branch of the logic tree and, therefore, to new seismic hazard curves (mean and centiles). The Bayesian approach doesn’t change the probabilistic models (seismic hazard curves). It only modifies the weights of each branch of the logic tree.     

Observable Effects of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections on Ground Level Neutron Monitor Count Rates

In this work, non-recurrent Forbush decreases (FDs) triggered by the passage of shock-driving interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) have been analyzed. Fifty-nine ICMEs have been studied, but only 25 % of them were associated to a FD. We find that shock-driving magnetic clouds (MCs) produce deeper FDs than shock-driving ejecta. This fact can be explained regarding the observed growing trends between decreases in neutron monitor (NM) count rate and MC/ejecta speed and its associated rigidity. MCs are faster and have higher associated rigidities than ejecta. Also the deceleration of ICMEs seems to be a cause for producing FDs, as can be inferred from the decreasing trend between NM count rate and deceleration. This probably implies that the interaction between the ICME traveling from the corona to the Earth and the solar wind can play an important role in producing deeper FDs. Finally, we conclude that ejecta without flux rope topology are the ones less effective in unchaining FDs.     

Radio source calibration for the Very Small Array and other cosmic microwave background instruments at around 30 GHz

Accurate calibration of data is essential for the current generation of cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments. Using data from the Very Small Array (VSA), we describe procedures which will lead to an accuracy of 1 per cent or better for experiments such as the VSA and CBI. Particular attention is paid to the stability of the receiver systems, the quality of the site and frequent observations of reference sources. At 30 GHz the careful correction for atmospheric emission and absorption is shown to be essential for achieving 1 per cent precision.
The sources for which a 1 per cent relative flux density calibration was achieved included Cas A, Cyg A, Tau A and NGC 7027 and the planets Venus, Jupiter and Saturn. A flux density, or brightness temperature in the case of the planets, was derived at 33 GHz relative to Jupiter which was adopted as the fundamental calibrator. A spectral index at ∼30 GHz is given for each.
Cas A, Tau A, NGC 7027 and Venus were examined for variability. Cas A was found to be decreasing at 0.394 ± 0.019 per cent yr⁻¹ over the period 2001 March to 2004 August. In the same period Tau A was decreasing at 0.22 ± 0.07 per cent yr⁻¹. A survey of the published data showed that the planetary nebula NGC 7027 decreased at 0.16 ± 0.04 per cent yr⁻¹ over the period 1967–2003. Venus showed an insignificant (1.5 ± 1.3 per cent) variation with Venusian illumination. The integrated polarization of Tau A at 33 GHz was found to be 7.8 ± 0.6 per cent at position angle =148°± 3°.     

Radar interferometry techniques for the study of ground subsidence phenomena: a review of practical issues through cases in Spain

Subsidence related to multiple natural and human-induced processes affects an increasing number of areas worldwide. Although this phenomenon may involve surface deformation with 3D displacement components, negative vertical movement, either progressive or episodic, tends to dominate. Over the last decades, differential SAR interferometry (DInSAR) has become a very useful remote sensing tool for accurately measuring the spatial and temporal evolution of surface displacements over broad areas. This work discusses the main advantages and limitations of addressing active subsidence phenomena by means of DInSAR techniques from an end-user point of view. Special attention is paid to the spatial and temporal resolution, the precision of the measurements, and the usefulness of the data. The presented analysis is focused on DInSAR results exploitation of various ground subsidence phenomena (groundwater withdrawal, soil compaction, mining subsidence, evaporite dissolution subsidence, and volcanic deformation) with different displacement patterns in a selection of subsidence areas in Spain. Finally, a cost comparative study is performed for the different techniques applied.