Short-Period Fluctuations in Coronal Mass Ejection Activity during Solar Cycle 23

We have constructed a time series of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed by SOHO/LASCO during solar cycle 23. Using spectral analysis techniques (the maximum entropy method and wavelet analysis) we found short-period (< one year) semiperiodic activity. Among others, we found interesting periodicities at 193, 36, 28, and 25 days. We discuss the implications of such short-period activity in terms of the emergence and escape of magnetic flux from the convection zone, through the low solar atmosphere (where these periodicities have been found for numerous activity parameters), toward interplanetary space. This analysis shows that CMEs remove the magnetic flux in a quasiperiodic process in a way similar to that of magnetic flux emergence and other solar eruptive activity.     

Updates to the MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model

The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Meteoroid Stream Model simulates particle ejection and subsequent evolution from comets in order to provide meteor shower forecasts to spacecraft operators for hazard mitigation and planning purposes. The model, previously detailed in Moser and Cooke (Earth Moon Planets 95, 141 (2004)), has recently been updated; the changes include the implementation of the RADAU integrator, an improved planetary treatment, and the inclusion of general relativistic effects in the force function. The results of these updates are investigated with respect to various meteoroid streams and the outcome presented.     

Late Quaternary vegetation and climate dynamics in central-eastern Brazil: insights from a ~35k cal a bp peat record in the Cerrado biome

The late Quaternary evolution of central-eastern Brazil has been under-researched. Questions remain as to the origin of the Cerrado, a highly endangered biome, and other types of vegetation, such as the Capões – small vegetation islands of semi-deciduous and mountain forests. We investigated the factors that influenced the expansion and contraction of the Cerrado and Capões during the late Quaternary (last ~35 ka), using a multi-proxy approach: stable isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N), geochemistry, pollen and multivariate statistics derived from a peat core (Pinheiro mire, Serra do Espinhaço Meridional). Five major shifts in precipitation, temperature, vegetation and landscape stability occurred at different timescales. Our study revealed that changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) seem to have been coeval with these shifts: from the Late Glacial Maximum to mid-Holocene the SACZ remained near (~29.6 to ~16.5k cal a bp ) and over (~16.5 to ~6.1 k cal a bp ) the study area, providing humidity to the region. This challenges previous research which suggested that climate was drier for this time period. At present, the Capões are likely to be a remnant of a more humid climate; meanwhile, the Cerrado biome seems to have stablished in the late Holocene, after ~3.1 k cal a bp .     

Bibliometric analysis of the scientific production on coastal communities’ social vulnerability to climate change and to the impact of extreme events

Natural Hazards - Bibliometric analysis is a quantitative evaluation method for scientific research aiming at measuring knowledge expressed as scientific publications in a given field. This paper...     

Spatial and seasonal patterns of flood change across Brazil

Brazil has some of the largest rivers in the world and has the second greatest flood loss potential among the emergent countries. Despite that, flood studies in this area are still scarce. In this paper, we used flood seasonality and trend analysis at the annual and seasonal scales in order to describe flood regimes and changes across the whole of Brazil in the period 1976–2015. We identified a strong seasonality of floods and a well-defined spatio-temporal pattern for flood occurrence. There are positive trends in the frequency and magnitude of floods in the North, South and parts of Southeast Brazil; and negative trends in the North-east and the remainder of Southeast Brazil. Trends in the magnitude (frequency) were predominant in the winter (summer). Overall, floods are becoming more frequent and intense in Brazilian regions characterized by wet conditions, and less frequent and intense in drier regions.     

Hydrodynamic characterization and flocculation process in helically coiled tube flocculators: an evaluation through streamlines

This paper presents a hydrodynamic characterization of helically coiled tube flocculators (HCTFs) through streamline analysis and an efficiency evaluation of the flocculation process in these units. Physical experiment and CFD modeling allowed to relate flocculation process (estimated indirectly by analyzing turbidity removal efficiency for low turbidity values and low Reynolds numbers) and hydrodynamic characteristics observed along the unit (represented in this study by streamlines). This work analyzes streamline features and proposes the use of a new global hydrodynamic parameter \(\overline{{E_{\text{k}} }}\), concerning the average specific kinetic energy in a representative streamline of the unit, aiming to compare hydrodynamic characteristics in units with distinct hydraulic and geometric characteristics. Results show that this parameter has a strong adherence with the maximum turbidity removal efficiency observed in HCTFs. Moreover, it was possible to define an optimum range of velocity variation cycles in the representative streamline to achieve the maximum turbidity removal efficiency. This result indicates that knowledge of HCTFs streamlines’ characteristics can support the rational design of this type of unit.     

Stability of source mechanisms inverted from P‐wave amplitude microseismic monitoring data acquired at the surface

We study the stability of source mechanisms inverted from data acquired at surface and near‐surface monitoring arrays. The study is focused on P‐wave data acquired on vertical components, as this is the most common type of acquisition. We apply ray modelling on three models: a fully homogeneous isotropic model, a laterally homogeneous isotropic model and a laterally homogeneous anisotropic model to simulate three commonly used models in inversion. We use geometries of real arrays, one consisting in surface receivers and one consisting in ‘buried’ geophones at the near‐surface. Stability was tested for two of the frequently observed source mechanisms: strike‐slip and dip‐slip and was evaluated by comparing the parameters of correct and inverted mechanisms. We assume these double‐couple source mechanisms and use quantitatively the inversion allowing non‐double‐couple components to measure stability of the inversion. To test the robustness we inverted synthetic amplitudes computed for a laterally homogeneous isotropic model and contaminated with noise using a fully homogeneous model in the inversion. Analogously amplitudes computed in a laterally homogeneous anisotropic model were inverted in all three models. We show that a star‐like surface acquisition array provides very stable inversion up to a very high level of noise in data. Furthermore, we reveal that strike‐slip inversion is more stable than dip‐slip inversion for the receiver geometries considered here. We show that noise and an incorrect velocity model may result in narrow bands of source mechanisms in Hudson's plots.     

Review of ray-Born forward modeling for migration and diffraction analysis

The ray-Born approximation is a very useful tool for forward modeling of scattered waves. The fact that ray-Born modeling underlies most seismic migration techniques, and therefore shares their assumptions, is a justification in itself to consider it for forward modeling. The ray-Born approximation does not make an explicit distinction between specular reflections and nonspecular diffractions. It therefore allows the modeling of diffractions from structural discontinuities such as edges and tips, as well as caustic diffractions. In the simplest implementation ray-Born seismograms are multiple-free. Ray-Born modeling can be orders of magnitude faster than finite-difference modeling, both in two-and three dimensions.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Low-Latitude GPS Amplitude Scintillation Measured During Solar Maximum Conditions and Implications for Receiver Performance

Ionospheric scintillations are fluctuations in the phase and/or amplitude of trans-ionospheric radio signals caused by electron density irregularities in the ionosphere. A better understanding of the scintillation pattern is important to make a better assessment of GPS receiver performance, for instance. Additionally, scintillation can be used as a tool for remote sensing of ionospheric irregularities. Therefore, the study of ionospheric scintillation has both scientific as well as technological implications. In the past few years, there has been a significant advance in the methods for analysis of scintillation and in our understanding of the impact of scintillation on GPS receiver performance. In this work, we revisit some of the existing methods of analysis of scintillation, propose an alternative approach, and apply these techniques in a comprehensive study of the characteristics of amplitude scintillation. This comprehensive study made use of 32?days of high-rate (50?Hz) measurements made by a GPS-based scintillation monitor located in S?o José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2°S, 45.9°W, ?17.5° dip latitude) near the Equatorial Anomaly during high solar flux conditions. The variability of the decorrelation time (τ₀) of scintillation patterns is presented as a function of scintillation severity index (S ₄). We found that the values of τ₀ tend to decrease with the increase of S ₄, confirming the results of previous studies. In addition, we found that, at least for the measurements made during this campaign, averaged values of τ₀ (for fixed S ₄ index values) did not vary much as a function of local time. Our results also indicate a significant impact of τ₀ in the GPS carrier loop performance for S ₄?≥?0.7. An alternative way to compute the probability of cycle slip that takes into account the fading duration time is also presented. The results of this approach show a 38% probability of cycle slips during strong scintillation scenarios (S ₄ close to 1 and τ₀ near 0.2?s). Finally, we present results of an analysis of the individual amplitude fades observed in our set of measurements. This analysis suggests that users operating GPS receivers with C/N ₀ thresholds around 30?dB-Hz and above can be affected significantly by low-latitude scintillation.