Relationships between magmatism and tectonics in a continental rift: The Pantelleria Island region (Sicily Channel, Italy)

Field geological data of the Pantelleria Island, a large Late Quaternary volcano located in the Sicily Channel rift zone, integrated with offshore geophysical information, are used to derive the structural setting of the Island and the surrounding region, and to analyse the relationships between tectonics and magmatism. Field work shows that the principal faults exposed on the Island fall into two systems trending NNE–SSW and NW–SE. Mapped faults from offshore multichannel seismic profiles show similar trends, and some of them represent the offshore extension of the Pantelleria Island structures. The NW–SE faults bound the Pantelleria Graben, one of the three main depressions formed since the Late Miocene–Early Pliocene within the African continental platform, which compose the Sicily Channel rift zone. A 3-D Moho depth geometry, derived from inversion of Bouguer gravity data, shows a significant uplift of the discontinuity up to 16–17 km beneath the westernmost part of the Pantelleria Graben and beneath the Pantelleria Island; it lows rapidly to 24–25 km away from the graben north-eastward and south-westward. The Moho uplift could explain the presence of a shallow magma chamber in the southern part of the Island, where processes of magmatic differentiation are documented. Geological and geophysical data suggest that the northwestern part of the Sicily Channel is presently dominated by a roughly E–W directed extensional regime. Crustal cracking feeding the Quaternary volcanism could be also related to this extensional field that would be further responsible for the development of the N–S trending volcanic belt that extends in the Sicily Channel from Lampedusa Island to the Graham Bank. This mode of deformation is confirmed also by geodetic data. This implies that in the northwestern part of the Sicily Channel, the E–W extension replaced the NE–SW crustal stretching that originated the NW-trending tectonic depressions constituting the rift zone.     

Evaluation of liquefaction potential in an intermountain Quaternary lacustrine basin (Fucino basin,central Italy)

In this study, we analyse the susceptibility to liquefaction of the Pozzone site, which is located on the northern side of the Fucino lacustrine basin in central Italy. In 1915, this region was struck by a M 7.0 earthquake, which produced widespread coseismic surface effects that were interpreted to be liquefaction-related. However, the interpretation of these phenomena at the Pozzone site is not straightforward. Furthermore, the site is characterized by an abundance of fine-grained sediments, which are not typically found in liquefiable soils. Therefore, in this study, we perform a number of detailed stratigraphic and geotechnical investigations (including continuous-coring borehole, CPTu, SDMT, SPT, and geotechnical laboratory tests) to better interpret these 1915 phenomena and to evaluate the liquefaction potential of a lacustrine environment dominated by fine-grained sedimentation. The upper 18.5 m of the stratigraphic succession comprises fine-grained sediments, including four strata of coarser sediments formed by interbedded layers of sand, silty sand and sandy silt. These strata, which are interpreted to represent the frontal lobes of an alluvial fan system within a lacustrine succession, are highly susceptible to liquefaction. We also find evidence of paleo-liquefaction, dated between 12.1–10.8 and 9.43–9.13 kyrs ago, occurring at depths of 2.1–2.3 m. These data, along with the aforementioned geotechnical analyses, indicate that this site would indeed be liquefiable in a 1915-like earthquake. Although we found a broad agreement among CPTu, DMT and shear wave velocity “simplified procedures” in detecting the liquefaction potential of the Pozzone soil, our results suggest that the use and comparison of different in situ techniques are highly recommended for reliable estimates of the cyclic liquefaction resistance in lacustrine sites characterized by high content of fine-grained soils. In geologic environments similar to the one analysed in this work, where it is difficult to detect liquefiable layers, one can identify sites that are susceptible to liquefaction only by using detailed stratigraphic reconstructions, in situ characterization, and laboratory analyses. This has implications for basic (Level 1) seismic microzonation mapping, which typically relies on the use of empirical evaluations based on geologic maps and pre-existing sub-surface data (i.e., age and type of deposits, prevailing grain size, with particular attention paid to clean sands, and depth of the water table).     

Influence of the Po River runoff on the bacterioplankton community along trophic and salinity gradients in the Northern Adriatic Sea

The Po River runoff strongly affects the oceanographic and ecological characteristics of the Northern Adriatic Sea. Catalysed reported deposition ‐ fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD‐FISH) analysis was employed to assess how the composition of the coastal bacterioplankton community is influenced by the river runoff in two different seasons (spring and autumn). Samples were collected from the water column along a coastal–offshore transect in the Northern Adriatic Sea at different depths. Four clone libraries were then constructed from coastal (0 m) and offshore waters (?65 m). Higher abundances of bacteria were recorded in coastal waters as compared with the offshore samples. This result was mainly due to the trophic state of the water column, and it was related to salinity. Particularly, Actinobacteria and Gammaproteobacteria were affected by the riverine inputs, whereas Bacteroidetes and Alphaproteobacteria showed only minor responses. This was particularly clear in the autumn sample, in which a clear difference between the coastal and the offshore samples was found due to a strong influence of the less saline river water with high nutrient concentrations. Analysis of 205 partial length 16S rRNA gene sequences indicated a high diversity with the dominance of Alphaproteobacteria, Bacteroidetes and Gammaproteobacteria mainly affiliated to coastal and marine bacterioplankton clades. Actinobacteria were also detected and, together with Gammaproteobacteria, strongly follow the freshwater intrusion. Overall, our results indicate that the seasonal difference in the Po River discharge greatly affects the bacterioplankton community. In spring we observed a smooth transition from coastal to open‐sea conditions owing to the more superficial freshwater plume. In autumn the deeper freshwater intrusion in the coastal site and thermal stratification offshore resulted in a marked difference between the coastal and offshore microbial communities.     

Near real time satellite imagery to support and verify timely flood modelling

The study investigates the capability of coarse resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery to support flood inundation models. A hydraulic model of a 98‐km reach of the River Po (Northern Italy) was calibrated on the October 2000 high‐magnitude flood event with extensive and high‐quality field data. During the June 2008, low‐magnitude flood event a SAR image was acquired and processed in near real time (NRT) in order to provide adequate data for quick verification and recalibration of the hydraulic model. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismicity of Eastern Algeria: a revised and extended earthquake catalogue

A new revised earthquake catalogue for Eastern Algeria [22°N-38°N–4°E-9.5°E], from 419 to 2008, has been compiled as a starting point for a catalogue dealing with the whole country. The re-evaluation is based on a critical method, and formal criteria are adopted in the parameterization of the earthquake catalogue. Two digital versions are produced: (a) a basic version, presented here, including all the compiled data, the authors of each quoted parameter and the quality rank of the macroseismic information; (b) a second version, obtained after removing doubtful events and parameters, is produced in order to carry out statistical analyses. The newly compiled earthquake catalogue provides a more reliable picture of the seismicity in Eastern Algeria than the previous ones as shown by the comparison of the recent catalogues over the common territory and time span. This catalogue can be easily updated and adapted to the needs of the user.     

The Lithosphere-Asthenosphere System in the Calabrian Arc and Surrounding Seas – Southern Italy

A fairly detailed structural model of the lithosphere-asthenosphere system (thickness, S- and P-wave velocities of the crust and of the uppermost mantle layers) has been defined in the Calabrian Arc region (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea, Calabria and the northwestern part of the Ionian Sea) in Southern Italy using seismic data from literature as a priori constraints of the nonlinear inversion of surface-wave data. The main features identified by this study are: (1) A very shallow (less then 10 km deep) crust-mantle transition in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea and a very low v_s just below a very thin lid, in correspondence of the submarine volcanic bodies Magnaghi, Marsili and Vavilov, while the v_s in the lid is quite high in the area that separates Marsili from Magnaghi-Vavilov; (2) a shallow and very low v_s layer in the uppermost mantle in the areas of the Aeolian Islands, Vesuvius, Phlegraean Fields and Ischia, which represents their shallow-mantle magma source; (3) a thickened continental crust and lithospheric doubling in Calabria; (4) a crust about 25-km thick and a mantle velocity profile versus depth consistent with the presence of a continental rifted lithosphere, now thermally relaxed, in the investigated part of the Ionian Sea; (5) the subduction towards northwest of the Ionian lithosphere below the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea; (6) the subduction of the Adriatic/Ionian lithosphere underneath the Vesuvius and Phlegraean Fields.     

Linear Amplification of Horizontal Strong Ground Motion in Zagreb (Croatia) for a Realistic Range of Scaled Point Sources

— The linear amplification of the larger horizontal component of strong ground motion along a selected profile in the city of Zagreb is estimated by examining the synthetic waveforms corresponding to a suite of 16 realistically chosen scaled point sources. The accelerograms, computed for the average bedrock model by modal summation, are propagated through local laterally heterogeneous anelastic models by the finite-difference algorithm. The ratio of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and of the response spectra (RS), obtained by using local and bedrock models, define the PGA and RS amplification AMP(PGA) and AMP(RS), respectively. Even variations of the order of commonly observed uncertainties of only dip and rake angles of the causative fault show that both AMP(PGA) and AMP(RS) vary at some sites by more than a factor of two. It follows that, especially for strongly laterally heterogeneous structures, local effects must be determined for each of the relevant sources considering all associated uncertainties as completely as possible. Such a conclusion certainly holds for the case of the microzonation of Zagreb, where the local geology is quite complex, and the seismicity is not confined to a single seismic source zone.     

The seventh facet of uncertainty: wrong assumptions,unknowns and surprises in the dynamics of human–water systems

ABSTRACT

The scientific literature has focused on uncertainty as randomness, while limited credit has been given to what we call here the “seventh facet of uncertainty”, i.e. lack of knowledge. This paper identifies three types of lack of understanding: (i) known unknowns, which are things we know we don’t know; (ii) unknown unknowns, which are things we don’t know we don’t know; and (iii) wrong assumptions, things we think we know, but we actually don’t know. Here we discuss each of these with reference to the study of the dynamics of human–water systems, which is one of the main topics of Panta Rhei, the current scientific decade of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), focusing on changes in hydrology and society. In the paper, we argue that interdisciplinary studies of socio-hydrological dynamics leading to a better understanding of human–water interactions can help in coping with wrong assumptions and known unknowns. Also, being aware of the existence of unknown unknowns, and their potential capability to generate surprises or black swans, suggests the need to complement top-down approaches, based on quantitative predictions of water-related hazards, with bottom-up approaches, based on societal vulnerabilities and possibilities of failure.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor S. Weijs