Assessment of ground motion variability and its effects on seismic hazard analysis: a case study for iceland

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) generally relies on the basic assumption that ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) developed for other similar tectonic regions can be adopted in the considered area. This implies that observed ground motion and its variability at considered sites could be modelled by the selected GMPEs. Until now ground-motion variability has been taken into account in PSHA by integrating over the standard deviation reported in GMPEs, which significantly affects estimated ground motions, especially at very low probabilities of exceedance. To provide insight on this issue, ground-motion variability in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ), where many ground-motion records are available, is assessed. Three statistical methods are applied to separate the aleatory variability into source (inter-event), site (inter-site) and residual (intra-event and intra-site) components. Furthermore, the current PSHA procedure that makes the ergodic assumption of equality between spatially and temporal variability is examined. In contrast to the ergodic assumption, several recent studies show that the observed ground-motion variability at an individual location is lower than that implied by the standard deviation of a GMPE. This could imply a mishandling of aleatory uncertainty in PSHA by ignoring spatial variability and by mixing aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the computation of sigma. Station correction coefficients are introduced in order to capture site effects at different stations. The introduction of the non-ergodic assumption in PSHA leads to larger epistemic uncertainty, although this is not the same as traditional epistemic uncertainty modelled using different GMPEs. The epistemic uncertainty due to the site correction coefficients (i.e. mean residuals) could be better constrained for future events if more information regarding the characteristics of these seismic sources and path dependence could be obtained.     

Probe and SIMS investigation of clinopyroxene inclusions in chromites from the Troodos chromitites (Cyprus): Implications for dunite–chromitite genesis

Chromite ores formation is still a debated topic and, in this study, detailed analyses of major, minor elements by EMPA and Rare Earth Elements (REE) by SIMS, were performed on silicate inclusions detected in chromite grains of chromitite pods, enveloping dunites and on clinopyroxene of lherzolitic host rock of well known Trodoos chromite ores. Results show the complexity of relationships among lithologies that reflects the subtlety of genetic events and of chromite ore occurrence.Analyses of textural and chemical features have led to a better understanding of the chromite ore genetic process, that is related to a supra-subduction geodynamic setting where partial melting processes were overlapped by metasomatic events.Metasomatism, that marks the general genetic context, is characterized by the presence of a hydrated boninitic melt that favors the precipitation of chromite ores. Chromite ores, typical of ophiolite complexes and usually enveloped by dunite are, in this case, characterized by the presence of two different types of dunites whose geochemical differences are reflected by olivine mineral chemistry and by different REE patterns of analyzed clinopyroxenes. Such geochemical marks, related to different magmatic and metasomatic events, could be a main key for location of fertile or barren dunites in terms of chromite ore occurrence in the field.     

How the aggressiveness of rainfalls in the Mediterranean lands is enhanced by climate change

Rainfall and overland flow are fundamental processes for Earth’s ecosystems but can also be land disturbing forces, particularly when triggered by extreme hydro-meteorological events. Examples of these extremes are rainstorms and related phenomena due to rainfall aggressiveness. They produce high-impact land processes such as soil erosion and nutrient losses. Economic and social consequences of these processes can be quite severe. However, hydrological extremes and their environmental implications are still poorly understood, particularly if analyzed in the context of climate change. Here, we analyze a 300 year long times series of historical rainfall patterns across the Mediterranean in the last three centuries and we investigate changes in the erosive forcing as related to climate changes. Our results show that the erosive forcing increased towards the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850) over western and central Mediterranean and that has been increasing in the recent warming period at low Mediterranean latitudes, due to a higher frequency of intensive storms. Such increased concentrated precipitation may lead to an intensification of land degradation processes triggered by soil erosion and transport across a range of scales from hillslopes to small catchments.     

Detrital geochronology of unroofing magmatic complexes and the slow erosion of Oligocene volcanoes in the Alps

Tectonic reconstructions and quantitative models of landscape evolution are increasingly based on detailed analysis of detrital systems. Since the definition of closure temperature in the 1960s, mineral ages of low-temperature geochronometers are traditionally interpreted as the result of cooling induced by erosion, whose rate is a simple, unique function of age patterns. Such an approach can lead to infer paradoxically high erosion rates that conflict with compelling geological evidence from sediment thickness in basins. This indicates that tectonic and landscape models that solely interpret mineral ages as due to cooling during exhumation may not be valid.Here we propose a new approach that takes into account the effects of both crystallization and exhumational cooling on geochronometers, from U–Pb on zircon to fission tracks on apatite. We first model the mechanical erosion of an unroofing magmatic complex and the resulting accumulation and burial of the eroded units in reverse order in the basin. Detrital mineral ages follow a regular pattern downsection. Some mineral ages, such as e.g. U–Pb ages of zircons, cluster around the “magmatic age”, i.e. the crystallization of the magma. Its value is constant along the stratigraphic column in the sedimentary basin; we refer to this behavior as “stationary age peak”. Some other mineral ages, such as e.g. apatite fission-track ages, are often younger than the magmatic age. When they vary smoothly with depth, they define a “moving age peak”, which is the only possible effect of undisturbed cooling during overburden removal, and can therefore be used to calculate an erosion rate.The predictions of our model were tested in detail on the extremely well-studied Bregaglia (Bergell) orogenic pluton in the Alps, and on the sedimentary succession derived from its erosion, the Gonfolite Group. The consistency between predicted and observed age patterns validates the model. Our results resolve a long-standing paradox in quantitative modelling of erosion–sedimentation, namely the scarcity of sediment during apparently fast erosion. Starved basins are the observational baseline, and modelling must be tuned to include a correct analysis of detrital mineral geochronology in order to reconcile perceived discrepancies between stratigraphical and geochronological information. In addition, our data demonstrate that volcanoes were active on top of the growing Oligocene Alps.This study illustrates rigorous criteria for detrital mineral geochronology that are applicable to any geological setting, including magmatic arcs and collision orogens, and provides fundamental interpretive keys to solve complex puzzles and apparent paradoxes in geological reconstructions.     

Emplacement temperatures of pyroclastic and volcaniclastic deposits in kimberlite pipes in southern Africa

Palaeomagnetic techniques for estimating the emplacement temperatures of volcanic deposits have been applied to pyroclastic and volcaniclastic deposits in kimberlite pipes in southern Africa. Lithic clasts were sampled from a variety of lithofacies from three pipes for which the internal geology is well constrained (the Cretaceous A/K1 pipe, Orapa Mine, Botswana, and the Cambrian K1 and K2 pipes, Venetia Mine, South Africa). The sampled deposits included massive and layered vent-filling breccias with varying abundances of lithic inclusions, layered crater-filling pyroclastic deposits, talus breccias and volcaniclastic breccias. Basalt lithic clasts in the layered and massive vent-filling pyroclastic deposits in the A/K1 pipe at Orapa were emplaced at >570°C, in the pyroclastic crater-filling deposits at 200–440°C and in crater-filling talus breccias and volcaniclastic breccias at <180°C. The results from the K1 and K2 pipes at Venetia suggest emplacement temperatures for the vent-filling breccias of 260°C to >560°C, although the interpretation of these results is hampered by the presence of Mesozoic magnetic overprints. These temperatures are comparable to the estimated emplacement temperatures of other kimberlite deposits and fall within the proposed stability field for common interstitial matrix mineral assemblages within vent-filling volcaniclastic kimberlites. The temperatures are also comparable to those obtained for pyroclastic deposits in other, silicic, volcanic systems. Because the lithic content of the studied deposits is 10–30%, the initial bulk temperature of the pyroclastic mixture of cold lithic clasts and juvenile kimberlite magma could have been 300–400°C hotter than the palaeomagnetic estimates. Together with the discovery of welded and agglutinated juvenile pyroclasts in some pyroclastic kimberlites, the palaeomagnetic results indicate that there are examples of kimberlites where phreatomagmatism did not play a major role in the generation of the pyroclastic deposits. This study indicates that palaeomagnetic methods can successfully distinguish differences in the emplacement temperatures of different kimberlite facies.     

The Dorn gold deposit in northern Victoria Land,Antarctica: Structure,hydrothermal alteration,and implications for the Gondwana Pacific margin

The Dorn gold deposit in northern Victoria Land, Antarctica is a fault related gold-only deposit and it represents the first described occurrence of gold mineralization in Paleozoic terranes of the Antarctic continent. The deposit is hosted in lower greenschist facies Middle Cambrian metavolcanic and metasedimentary rocks of the Bowers terrane. Gold-bearing veins are located in a brittle–ductile reverse high-strain zone, which was produced by transpressional deformation that overprints the structures of the Cambrian–Ordovician Ross Orogeny. The vein system is surrounded by a hydrothermal alteration zone that is as much as 300-m-wide, where the host rocks are partially to completely transformed into Fe–Mg carbonate-rich rocks with different degrees of replacement of the original mineralogy and texture.The type of host rock, the temperature estimates for mineralization from 290–320 °C, the quartz dominant vein system with sulfides and Fe-rich carbonates, and the controlling structures linked to a convergent margin tectonic setting together suggest that this mineralized vein system can be classified as an orogenic gold deposit. Close analogies are found with deposits of the Stawell zone in western Victoria, which is consistent with the correlation between units and hydrothermal events in northern Victoria Land and southeastern Australia.     

Dynamic response and sliding distance of composite breakwaters under breaking and non-breaking wave attack

Over the last 15 years improved awareness of wave impact induced failures has focused attention on the need to account for the dynamic response of maritime structures to wave impact load. In this work a non-linear model is introduced that allows evaluating the effective design load and the potential sliding of caisson breakwater subject to both pulsating and impulsive wave loads. The caisson dynamics is modelled using a time-step numerical method to solve numerically the equations of motion for a rigid body founded on multiple non-linear springs having both horizontal and vertical stiffness. The model is first shown to correctly describe the dynamics of caisson breakwaters subject to wave attack, including nonlinear features of wave–structure–soil interaction. Predictions of sliding distances by the new method are then compared with measurements from physical model tests, showing very good agreement with observations. The model succeeds in describing the physics that stands behind the process and is fast, accurate and flexible enough to be suitable for performance design of caisson breakwaters.     

The development of the Space Environment Viability of Organics (SEVO) experiment aboard the Organism/Organic Exposure to Orbital Stresses (O/OREOS) satellite

The Space Environment Viability of Organics (SEVO) experiment is one of two scientific payloads aboard the triple-cube satellite Organism/ORganic Exposure to Orbital Stresses (O/OREOS). O/OREOS is the first technology demonstration mission of the NASA Astrobiology Small Payloads Program. The 1-kg, 1000-cm³ SEVO cube is investigating the chemical evolution of organic materials in interstellar space and planetary environments by exposing organic molecules under controlled conditions directly to the low-Earth orbit (LEO) particle and electromagnetic radiation environment. O/OREOS was launched on November 19, 2010 into a 650-km, 72°-inclination orbit and has a nominal operational lifetime of six months. Four classes of organic compounds, namely an amino acid, a quinone, a polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH), and a metallo-porphyrin are being studied. Initial reaction conditions were established by hermetically sealing the thin-film organic samples in self-contained micro-environments. Chemical changes in the samples caused by direct exposure to LEO radiation and by interactions with the irradiated microenvironments are monitored in situ by ultraviolet/visible/near-infrared (UV/VIS/NIR) absorption spectroscopy using a novel compact fixed-grating CCD spectrometer with the Sun as its light source. The goals of the O/OREOS mission include: (1) demonstrating key small satellite technologies that can enable future low-cost astrobiology experiments, (2) deploying a miniature UV/VIS/NIR spectrometer suitable for in-situ astrobiology and other scientific investigations, (3) testing the capability to establish a variety of experimental reaction conditions to enable the study of astrobiological processes on small satellites, and (4) measuring the chemical evolution of organic molecules in LEO under conditions that can be extrapolated to interstellar and planetary environments. In this paper, the science and technology development of the SEVO instrument payload and its measurements are described.