Risk Assessment and Disaster Management for Natural and Anthropogenically Induced Geologic Hazards: Application to the Preolkhon Region,Western Lake Baikal,Siberia, Russia

In the Western Lake Baikal, recent Baikal Rift's tectonics control the topography, seismicity, climate, geomorphology, and economy. Scarps, facets, structural terraces, horsts and grabens, and trapezoid valleys can be clearly observed. They have been generated by the recent tectonic movements along the faults and represent a serious geologic hazard. The specific geological conditions predetermine a unique variety of landscapes. Thus, the main type of the economy is tourism. However, unorganized tourism leads to the degradation of the unique landscapes. It increases risk and requires disaster management. Three criteria has been used for risk assessment: (1) degree of geologic hazard; (2) degree of landscape degradation; and (3) degree of the economy's vitality. The high ecological significance and low stability to antropogeneous pressure are typical for landscapes of the Western Lake Baikal. Thus, some special activities of disaster management should be implemented based on our investigation.     

A 2D finite volume model for bebris flow and its application to events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees

FLATModel is a 2D finite volume code that contains several original approaches to improve debris-flow simulation. Firstly, FLATModel incorporates a ＂stop-and-go＂ technique in each cell to allow continuous collapses and remobilizations of the debris-flow mass. Secondly, flow velocity and consequently yield stress is directly associated with the type of rheology to improve boundary accuracy. Thirdly, a simple approach for entrainment is also included in the model to analyse the effect of basal erosion of debris flows. FLATMODEL was tested at several events that occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees and simulation results indicated that the model can represent rather well the different characteristics observed in the field.     

Investigation of submicron volcanic aerosol-particles by photoelectron emission

Volcanic aerosol emissions have been studied for the first time by in situ photoelectric charging. Explorative studies on Mt Etna reveal large concentrations of particles below 1000 nm with the spectrum peaking in the size range of 100–1000 nm diameter. Although a large fraction of the particles is already charged upon emission, the net electrical charge carried by the aerosol turned out to be close to zero.Particles with high photoelectric yield vary greatly in their relative abundance and seem to occur mainly at active points of the volcano.     

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the CMIP5 ensemble

Twenty-year temperature and precipitation extremes and their projected future changes are evaluated in an ensemble of climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), updating a similar study based on the CMIP3 ensemble. The projected changes are documented for three radiative forcing scenarios. The performance of the CMIP5 models in simulating 20-year temperature and precipitation extremes is comparable to that of the CMIP3 ensemble. The models simulate late 20th century warm extremes reasonably well, compared to estimates from reanalyses. The model discrepancies in simulating cold extremes are generally larger than those for warm extremes. Simulated late 20th century precipitation extremes are plausible in the extratropics but uncertainty in extreme precipitation in the tropics and subtropics remains very large, both in the models and the observationally-constrained datasets. Consistent with CMIP3 results, CMIP5 cold extremes generally warm faster than warm extremes, mainly in regions where snow and sea-ice retreat with global warming. There are tropical and subtropical regions where warming rates of warm extremes exceed those of cold extremes. Relative changes in the intensity of precipitation extremes generally exceed relative changes in annual mean precipitation. The corresponding waiting times for late 20th century extreme precipitation events are reduced almost everywhere, except for a few subtropical regions. The CMIP5 planetary sensitivity in extreme precipitation is about 6 %/°C, with generally lower values over extratropical land.     

Diurnal variation of deep cloud systems over the Indian region using INSAT-1B pixel data

Summary Among the various time scales of deep clouds, diurnal variation is found to be prominent over the tropics. The present study examines the diurnal variation in the number and area cover associated with the cloud systems over the tropical Indian region using INSAT-1B pixel data. Three periods, namely, April–May 1988, July–August 1988, and January–February 1989 are considered. The dependence of diurnal characteristics on the temperature threshold, life duration and size of cloud systems, and land-sea contrast has been explored. The diurnal characteristics of cloud systems living for more than a day have been studied for the first time. It is shown that cloud systems exhibit strong diurnal dependence at the coldest temperature threshold used (201 K). Also, the diurnal variation is more for larger cloud systems and for longer living systems. In general, more deep cloud activity is found from the satellite data during the pre-dawn and early morning hours. Precipitation is enhanced during morning to early noon hours. Further, using data from a recent field experiment, clear evidence of diurnal variation in precipitation over the Bay of Bengal is also presented. Received March 20, 2000/Revised October 3, 2000     

Study of the Galactic Rotation Based on Masers and Radio Stars with VLBI Measurements of Their Parallaxes

Astronomy Letters - Based on published data, we have produced a sample of 256 radio sources whose trigonometric parallaxes and proper motions were measured by VLBI. This sample contains Galactic...     

Spectrophotometric Variability of Mira

Data from the Pulkovo spectrophotometric data base on the absolute quasimonochromatic fluxes from oCet in the 320–1080 nm range are used to determine the physical parameters of this star in different phases of its light curve. The continuum emission layer is found to expand between the phases of the cycle corresponding to the rising and falling branches of the light curve. The average expansion velocity is 32 km/s. By the time the star’s brightness has fallen by roughly three magnitudes, its radius has increased by almost a factor of three. Over this same time the temperature of the layer has fallen from 3000 K to 2200 K. For this expansion velocity, the calculated mass rate loss is ⊙ M /year.__________Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 48, No. 2, pp. 175–189 (May 2005).     

Formation Mechanism of Mud Bank Along the Southwest Coast of India

Mud bank formation during the southwest monsoon along the southwest coast of India remains an enigma to the researchers and coastal community in spite of several earlier studies. The present study attempts to unravel the mystery through a high-frequency, season-long time-series observation at Alappuzha, located at the southern part of the west coast of India, a region of frequent occurrence of mud bank. Using 7-month-long weekly time-series observation, we identified strong winds and high waves associated with onset of the southwest monsoon and subsequent three episodic atmospheric low-pressure events (LPEs).With the help of in situ time-series data, we show that the strong winds and high waves associated with southwest monsoon pre-conditions the near shore bottom sediment to bring it into suspension. The high amplitude waves associated with the southwest monsoon, while propagating from the deep water to shallow water region, interact with the bottom initiating bottom-sediment movement and its suspension due to wave refraction and shoaling. The sporadic occurrence of the atmospheric LPEs enhances the process of suspension of bottom sediment in the near shore region leading to the formation of fluid mud. Simulations with a cohesive sediment transport model yielded realistic estimates of sediment transport, in the presence of an onshore current, a pre-requisite for transporting the fluid mud toward the coast. The prevailing onshore upwelling current during the southwest monsoon provides the favorable pre-requisite conditions for transporting the fluid mud through depression channel network towards the coast. Once sufficient quantity and thickness of fluid mud is accumulated in the near shore region, it acts as a wave damper for subsequent high monsoon waves, as indicated by the time-series wave data, leading to the formation of tranquil mud bank region. Depression channel networks extending from the shelf to the coast off Alappuzha, Kochi, Ponnani, Beypore, and Ullal were found in the bathymetric charts, thus explaining why mud banks occur only at few locations in spite of the prevalence of similar monsoon conditions.     

Platinum-group elements in alpine-type ultramafic rocks and related chromite ores of the main ophiolite belt of the Urals

On the basis of a representative collection of ultramafic rocks and chromite ores and a series of technological samples from the largest (Central and Western) deposits in the Rai-Iz massif of the Polar Urals and the Almaz-Zhemchuzhina and Poiskovy deposits in the Kempirsai massif of the southern Urals, the distribution and speciation of platinum-group elements (PGE) in various type sections of mafic-ultramafic massifs of the Main ophiolite belt of the Urals have been studied. Spectral-chemical and spectrophotometric analyses were carried out to estimate PGE in 700 samples of ultramafic rocks and chromite ores; 400 analyses of minerals from rocks, ores, and concentrates and 100 analyses of PGE minerals (PGM) in chromite ores and concentrates were performed using an electron microprobe. Near-chondritic and nonchondritic PGE patterns in chromitebearing sections have been identified. PGE mineralization has been established to occur in chromite ore from all parts of the mafic-ultramafic massifs in the Main ophiolite belt of the Urals. The PGE deposits and occurrences discovered therein are attributed to four types (Kraka, Kempirsai, Nurali-Upper Neiva, and Shandasha), which are different in mode of geological occurrence, geochemical specialization, and placer-forming capability. Fluid-bearing minerals of the pargasite-edenite series have been identified for the first time in the matrix of chromite ore of the Kempirsai massif (the Almaz-Zhemchuzhina deposit) and Voikar-Syn’ya massif (the Kershor deposit). The PGE grade in various types of chromite ore ranges from 0.1–0.2 to 1–2 g/t or higher. According to technological sampling, the average PGE grade in the largest deposits of the southeastern ore field of the Kempirsai massif is 0.5–0.7 g/t. Due to the occurrence of most PGE as PGM 10–100 mm in size and the proved feasibility of their recovery into nickel alloys, chromites of the Kempirsai massif can be considered a complex ore with elevated and locally high Os, Ir, and Ru contents. The Nurali-Upper Neiva type of ore is characterized by small-sized primary deposits, which nevertheless are the main source of large Os-Ir placers in the Miass and Nev’yansk districts of the southern and central Urals, respectively.     

Possible representation for discovery observations of stellar flares

It is shown that the chronology of flare star discoveries in the Pleiades cluster and the Orion association can be described satisfactorily by various distribution functions (gamma, binomial, decreasing exponential, and delta) for the mean frequencies of stellar flares. However, it has been found that this is due to the uncertainty in the observationally derived distribution function for the mean frequency of stellar flares. The most likely function is that derived by Ambartsumian, which has a physical basis.Translated fromAstrofizika, Vol. 38, No. 1, pp. 25–32, January–March, 1995.