Vulnerability study on a large industrial area using satellite remotely sensed images

The aim of this paper is to disseminate knowledge in the seismic science community about a possible tool which is not largely popular, despite its potential usefulness. In this paper it will be shown how satellite remotely sensed images may represent a powerful source of information where traditional sources of information are unable to deliver it, or at least to do so timely. Even when traditional information flow can ensure delivery, an advantage may still be found in terms of sooner availability and smaller amount of labour required. In the case shown here a vulnerability study was made on a vast industrial area in the gulf of Siracusa, Sicily, Italy. A series of concurrent factors made it particularly troublesome to obtain information on the structures found in the site (tanks, pipes, chimneys, roads, ...), required to suitably carry out the study. Satellite images were then acquired to obtain the information needed. Processing of the images was carried out relying on in-house software formerly developed for similar information extraction issues, and integrated with new, specifically developed elements, some pieces of information were obtained useful for seismic risk evaluation. In particular, location, footprint, elevation of significant structures (e.g. tanks, chimneys) could be evaluated, obtaining results in a format compatible with the most widespread GIS (Geographic Information System) standards. Such compatibility allowed a considerable savings on labour time required to lay a GIS of the area, which is a fundamental tool for risk and vulnerability analyses.     

Mixed nonlinear regression for modelling historical temperatures in Central–Southern Italy

This paper has exploited, for Central and Southern Italy (Mediterranean Sub-regional Area), an unprecedented historical dataset as an attempt to model seasonal (winter and summer) air temperatures in pre-instrumental time (back to 1500). Combining information derived from proxy–documentary data and large-scale simulation, a statistical downscaling approach in the form of mixed regression model was developed to adapt larger-scale estimations (regional component) to the sub-regional temperature pattern (local component). It interprets local temperature anomalies by means of monthly based Temperature Anomaly Scaled Index in the range ?5 (very cold conditions in June) to 2 (very warm conditions). The modelled response agrees well with the independent data from the validation sample (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, >0.60). The advantage of the approach is not merely increased accuracy in estimation. Rather, it relies on the ability to extract (and exploit) the right information to replicate coherent temperature series in historical times.     

The Crati Submarine Fan, Ionian Sea

The Crati Fan is located in the tectonically active submerged extension of the Apennines chain and foretrough. The small fan system is growing in a relatively shallow (200 to 450 m), elongate nearshore basin receiving abundant input from the Crati River. The fan is characterized by a short, steep, channelized section (inner or upper fan) and a smooth, slightly bulging distal section (outer or lower fan). The numerous subparallel channels head in the shelf or littoral zone and do not form branching distributary patterns. Sand and mud depositional lobes of the outer fan stretch over more than 60% of fan length. Margin setting represents fan and/or source area     

Multiscale modelling of rainstorm-induced historical intermediate floods (June–November) in the Rhone River Basin

This study reveals the changes and evolution of rainstorm-driven intermediate floods occurring and driving multiple damaging hydrological events in the Rhone River Basin (RRB), since 1500 until 2010. A parsimonious approach was developed to simulate the major hydroclimatological flood-producing forcing, the Multiscale Rainstorm Climate Model (STORMCLIMM). We collected the frequency of intermediate floods—a type of particularly hazardous floods commonly taking place between June and beginning of November—from the RCB to be compared to STORMCLIMM estimates. The latter, smoothed by a moving window of 21 years, results in a high-pass filter in the time domain, which magnifies the signal of forcing variations causing intermediate floods. The RRB showed large temporal variations in both extreme rainstorms and associated multidecadal intermediate-floods (MUDIF) frequency at different climatic periods and land-use systems through historical times. An important peak was observed in the Maunder Minimum (1645–1715 AD). The model allowed detecting MUDIF occurred in the historical times. The situation becomes interesting with respect to recent times, because the Rhone landscape looks more vulnerable in the last decades as a consequence of land-use changes and climate shift towards more erratic and intensive storms. This evidence suggests that the interactions of land-use and climatic changes may turn into considerable vulnerability to fluvial flooding and agro-ecosystem connected to them for upcoming years. The Rhone, for example, provides basis for use of hydrological indicators (such as the one represented by STORMCLIMM) for one site or region and which, through minor modifications, can be made relevant to specific needs.     

A study of the climatic regimes of the Pleistocene using a stochastic resonance model

A global energy balance model employing the stochastic resonance mechanism, previously used to explain the climatic variability of the late Pleistocene, has now been extended to account for the climatic variations over the full Pleistocene. The possibility that extremely long-term changes (of the order of millions of years) in the boundary conditions of the climate system have altered the response of the Pleistocene climate to the external orbital forcing has been investigated. It is shown that, by slowly changing the only free parameter of the model, the system can undergo a pitchfork bifurcation. The bifurcation point separates a linear regime (identified with the early Pleistocene climate) from a strongly nonlinear regime (the late Pleistocene) where the stochastic resonance mechanism produces rapid and symmetric transitions between the two stable steady states of the system. The main differences in the dynamic features of the two regimes are the change in amplitude of the oscillations, the relative importance of the stochastic forcing, the change in shape of the probability distribution, and the corresponding change in the power centered around the 100000 year cycle: in qualitative agreement with the observed geological record. With the introduction of the external orbital forcing, now spectrally complete and included without requiring any additional hypothesis, the model reproduces the previous results, namely the good correlation with the isotopic record, the appearance of the dominant spectral peaks, as well as the redness of the power spectrum. In particular, it is shown that the orbital forcing in eccentricity acts as a pacemaker of the major glacial cycles of the late Pleistocene through the mechanism of stochastic resonance. A stochastic sensitivity analysis is then applied to validate the significance of the results and to investigate the predictability of the climate system over the time-scales of the orbital cycles.     

Isotopic analysis of sulfate in a South Pacific core

The sulfur-34 isotope profile of sulfate in a red-clay sediment gravity core, 120 cm long, from the South Pacific indicates a very weak, if any, bacterial sulfate-reducing activity. This activity is not shown by the oxygen-18 distribution. The sulfur and oxygen isotopic values are close to those of the overlying seawater sulfate and to the average oceanic values.Of all the parameters mainly able to affect the bacterial activity, such as temperature, molecular oxygen and organic matter, the very small concentration of organic matter seems to be responsible for the almost total lack of sulfate reduction.     

The structure and intensity evolution of a solar burst at 2.8 cm and the relation with the soft X-ray emitting region

The decay phase of a microwave burst was observed with a one-dimensional angular resolution of 16″ at 2.8 cm. The structure was found to be composed of several bursting regions with different evolution. The event was also observed in soft X-rays by full-disk detectors. The joint analysis of these data suggests that the complete event has thermal origin and that the soft X-ray emission is associated with the rapidly varying component of the radio structure. From these results the average values of the electron temperatures and densities were computed for each component.     

The impact of commercial and recreational harvesting for Paracentrotus lividus on shallow rocky reef sea urchin communities in North-western Sardinia, Italy

The fishery for the edible sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus is of great importance to many European regions, although in some of them this species has shown a wide scale decline in recent years. This paper reports on direct (on P. lividus) and indirect (on the co-occurring but not fished echinoid, Arbacia lixula) effects of sea urchin harvesting in shallow rocky reefs in North-western Sardinia (Italy, central-western Mediterranean Sea), where this activity is intensively practised. Density, size (test diameter), and biomass of both species were assessed in autumn 2004 at two locations impacted by P. lividus fishery, and at two controls within an adjacent Marine Protected Area. Density of P. lividus and A. lixula was significantly greater at the controls than at the exploited locations. The average test diameter of P. lividus was also significantly larger at the controls, where large-sized specimens (i.e. >5 cm) were notably more abundant. The average size of A. lixula did not significantly differ between the impacted locations and the controls. The average biomass of P. lividus was significantly greater at the controls than at the exploited locations, whereas no differences were detected for A. lixula. These results reveal the existence of a heavy fishing impact on P. lividus in North-western Sardinia and the need for regulation of its harvesting to prevent severe direct effects on its populations. Since no indirect effects on A. lixula have been detected, it could be hypothesized that this species did not benefit from P. lividus fishery due to an only moderate competition for habitat and resources between these two echinoids. Implications for management of edible sea urchin fishery are also discussed.     

Holocene hydrological changes in south-western Mediterranean as recorded by lake-level fluctuations at Lago Preola,a coastal lake in southern Sicily,Italy

This paper presents a high-resolution lake-level record for the Holocene at Lago Preola (Sicily, southern Italy) based on a specific sedimentological approach, with a chronology derived from AMS radiocarbon dates. It gives evidence of three major successive palaeohydrological periods, with (1) a pronounced dryness during the early Holocene until ca 10300 cal BP, (2) a highstand from ca 10300 to 4500 cal BP, and (3) a marked lowstand from 4500 cal BP to present. Large amplitude lake-level fluctuations characterise two transition phases at ca 10300–9000 and 6400–4500 cal BP. Period 2 was interrupted between 8300 and 7000 cal BP by a dry phase that was punctuated to ca 7300 cal BP by the deposition of a tephra from neighbouring Pantelleria Island. Comparisons of the Preola record with other palaeohydrological records along north–south and west–east transects in the Mediterranean show contrasting patterns of hydrological changes: north (south) of around 40°N latitude, the records highlight a mid-Holocene period characterised by lake-level minima (maxima). Humid mid-Holocene conditions over the Mediterranean south of 40°N were probably linked to a strong weakening of the Hadley cell circulation and of monsoon winds. We suggest that the maximum of humidity in the Mediterranean during the mid-Holocene was characterised by humid winters to the north of 40°N and humid summers to the south. On a multi-centennial scale, the high-resolution palaeohydrological reconstructions in the central Mediterranean area reveal a strong climate reversal around 4500–4000 cal BP, with contrasting changes in the hydrological cycle. In addition to seasonal and inter-hemispherical changes related to orbital forcing, this major oscillation might be related to non-linear responses of the climatic system to the gradual decrease in summer insolation at northern latitudes. Another major climate oscillation around 7500–7000 cal BP may have resulted from the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in insolation, and (2) variations in solar activity. Finally, comparisons of the Preola lake-level record with Sicilian pollen records suggest a strong influence of moisture availability on vegetation development in Sicily. Very dry early Holocene conditions probably prevented the expansion of coastal evergreen forests, while decreasing moisture availability since the onset of the late Holocene may have exacerbated effects of intensive land-use.