Evaluation of the Risk of Marine Slope Instability: A Pseudo-3D Approach for Application to Large Areas

Abstract

This article presents a methodology developed to evaluate the instability of submarine slopes that extend over a large area. Special attention was paid to (1) the complex geometry (bathymetry) and the expanse of the slope, (2) the heterogeneity of the sediment, and (3) the distribution of the pore pressure. The safety factor was considered as a spatially varying quantity. The General Formulation (GLE, Fredlund and Krahn 1977), which fully satisfies equilibrium conditions, was used for evaluating the stability of the marine slope. The submarine slope failure, which occurred on 16 October 1979 during the construction of the new Nice airport, was studied in order to test the developed model. Geotechnical parameters were taken from experimental tests carried out by IFREMER on 19 cores extracted at different depths (from 27 m to 1300 m) (Cochonat, Bourillet, and Savoye, 1993; Mulder et al., 1994). Many scenarios were proposed in order to explain the cause of the Nice slope failure (Habib, 1994). In this article, two of those scenarios were tested. Simulation results are presented and discussed.     

Numerical prediction of the earthquake response of classical columns using the distinct element method

In this paper, the distinct element method is used in order to predict the earthquake response of a multi‐drum marble model of a classical column. The results are compared with experimental data for an ‘identical’ specimen under the same excitation. Both the numerical analysis and the experiments were conducted in three dimensions. The results show that the distinct element method can capture quite well the main features of the response, in spite of the sensitivity of the response to even small perturbations of the characteristics of the structure or the excitation. Attention, however, should be given to the appropriate values of the joint properties to be used. In any case, it seems that the method can be used with confidence in the restoration process of ancient monuments, in order to estimate the response to expected earthquake motions. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking uplift,erosion, and sedimentation using landscape evolution models: Madagascar since the Late Cretaceous

We present a study to estimate the large-scale landscape history of a continental margin, by establishing a source-to-sink volume balance between the eroding onshore areas and the offshore basins. Assuming erosion as the primary process for sediment production, we strive to constrain a numerical model of landscape evolution that balances the volumes of eroded materials from the continent and that deposited in the corresponding basins, with a ratio imposed for loss of erosion products. We use this approach to investigate the landscape history of Madagascar since the Late Cretaceous. The uplift history prescribed in the model is inferred from elevations of planation surfaces formed at various ages. By fitting the volumes of terrigenous sediments in the Morondava Basin along the west coast and the current elevation of the island, the landscape evolution model is optimized by constraining the erosion law parameters and ratios of sediment loss. The results include a best-fit landscape evolution model, which features two major periods of uplift and erosion during the Late Cretaceous and the middle to late Cenozoic. The model supports suggestions from previous studies that most of the high topography of the island was constructed since the middle to late Miocene, and on the central plateau the erosion has not reached an equilibrium with the high uplift rates in the late Cenozoic. Our models also indicate that over the geological time scale a significant portion of materials eroded from Madagascar was not archived in the offshore basin, possibly consumed by chemical weathering, the intensity of which might have varied with climate.     

Submesoscale tidal eddies in the wake of coral islands and reefs: satellite data and numerical modelling

Interaction of tidal flow with a complex topography and bathymetry including headlands, islands, coral reefs and shoals create a rich submesoscale field of tidal jets, vortices, unsteady wakes, lee eddies and free shear layers, all of which impact marine ecology. A unique and detailed view of the submesoscale variability in a part of the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, Australia, that includes a number of small islands was obtained by using a “stereo” pair of 2-m-resolution visible-band images that were acquired just 54 s apart by the WorldView-3 satellite. Near-surface current and vorticity were extracted at a 50-m-resolution from those data using a cross-correlation technique and an optical-flow method, each yielding a similar result. The satellite-derived data are used to test the ability of the second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve ice-ocean model (SLIM), an unstructured-mesh, finite element model for geophysical and environmental flows, to reproduce the details of the currents in the region. The model succeeds in simulating the large-scale (> 1 km) current patterns, such as the main current and the width and magnitude of the jets developing in the gaps between the islands. Moreover, the order of magnitude of the vorticity and the occurrence of some vortices downstream of the islands are correctly reproduced. The smaller scales (< 500 m) are resolved by the model, although various discrepancies with the data are observed. The smallest scales (< 50 m) are unresolved by both the model- and image-derived velocity fields. This study shows that high-resolution models are able to a significant degree to simulate accurately the currents close to a rugged coast. Very-high-resolution satellite oceanography stereo images offer a new way to obtain snapshots of currents near a complex topography that has reefs, islands and shoals, and is a potential resource that could be more widely used to assess the predictive ability of coastal circulation models.     

Entropy theory for analysing water resources in northeastern region of Brazil

Using the Shannon entropy, the space–time variability of rainfall and streamflow was assessed for daily rainfall and streamflow data for a 10-year period from 189 stations in the northeastern region of Brazil. Mean values of marginal entropy were computed for all observation stations and entropy maps were then constructed for delineating annual and seasonal characteristics of rainfall and streamflow. The Mann-Kendall test was used to evaluate the long-term trend in marginal entropy as well as relative entropy for two sample stations. The marginal entropy values of rainfall and streamflow were higher for locations and periods with the highest amounts of rainfall. The entropy values were higher where rainfall was higher. This was because the probability distributions of rainfall and the resulting streamflow were more uniform and less skewed. The Shannon entropy produced spatial patterns which led to a better understanding of rainfall and streamflow characteristics throughout the northeastern region of Brazil. The total relative entropy indicated that rainfall and streamflow carried the same information content at annual and rainy season time scales.     

Assimilating along-track SLA data using the EnOI in an eddy resolving model of the Agulhas system

The greater Agulhas Current is one of the most energetic current systems in the global ocean. It plays a fundamental role in determining the mean state and variability of the regional marine environment, affecting its resources and ecosystem, the regional weather and the global climate on a broad range of temporal and spatial scales. In the absence of a coherent in-situ and satellite-based observing system in the region, modelling and data assimilation techniques play a crucial role in both furthering the quantitative understanding and providing better forecasts of this complicated western boundary current system. In this study, we use a regional implementation of the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model and assimilate along-track satellite sea level anomaly (SLA) data using the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation scheme. This study lays the foundation towards the development of a regional prediction system for the greater Agulhas Current system. Comparisons to independent in-situ drifter observations show that data assimilation reduces the error compared to a free model run over a 2-year period. Mesoscale features are placed in more consistent agreement with the drifter trajectories and surface velocity errors are reduced. While the model-based forecasts of surface velocities are not as accurate as persistence forecasts derived from satellite altimeter observations, the error calculated from the drifter measurements for eddy kinetic energy is significantly lower in the assimilation system compared to the persistence forecast. While the assimilation of along-track SLA data introduces a small bias in sea surface temperatures, the representation of water mass properties and deep current velocities in the Agulhas system is improved.     

Upper crustal electrical resistivity structures in the vicinity of the Çatalca Fault, Istanbul, Turkey by magnetotelluric data

A magnetotelluric survey was performed at the Çatalca Region, west of Istanbul, Turkey with the aim of investigating geoelectrical properties of the upper crust near the Çatalca Fault and its vicinity. Broadband magnetotelluric data were collected at nine sites along a single southwest-northeast profile to image the electrical resistivity structure from surface to the 5 km depth. The dimensionality of the data was examined through tensor decompositions and highly two-dimensional behavior of the data is shown. Following the tensor decompositions, two-dimensional inversions were carried out where E-polarization, B-polarization and tipper data were utilized to construct electrical resistivity models. The results of the inversions suggest: a) the Çatalca Fault extends from surface to 5 km depth as a conductive zone dipping to southwest; b) the thickness of the sedimentary cover is increasing from SW to NE to 700 m with low resistivity values between 1–100 Ωm; c) the crystalline basement below the sedimentary unit is very resistive and varies between 2000–100000 Ωm; d) a SW-dipping resistivity boundary in the northeastern part of our profile may represent the West Black Sea Fault.     

Investigation of groundwater mineralization in the Hammamet–Nabeul unconfined aquifer,north-eastern Tunisia: geochemical and isotopic approach

Detailed hydrogeochemical and isotopic data of groundwaters from the Hammamet–Nabeul unconfined aquifer are used to provide a better understanding of the natural and anthropogenic processes that control the groundwater mineralization as well as the sources of different groundwater bodies. It has been demonstrated that groundwaters, which show Na–Cl and Ca–SO₄–Cl water facies, are mainly influenced by the dissolution of evaporates, the dedolomitization and the cation-exchange process; and supplementary by anthropogenic process in relation with return flow of irrigation waters. The isotopic signatures permit to classify the studied groundwaters into two different groups. Non-evaporated groundwaters that are characterized by depleted δ ¹⁸O and δ ²H contents highlighting the importance of modern recharge at higher altitude. Evaporated groundwaters with enriched contents reflecting the significance infiltration of return flow irrigation waters. Tritium data in the studied groundwaters lend support to the existence of pre-1950 and post-1960 recharge. Carbon-14 activities in shallow wells that provide evidence to the large contamination by organic ¹⁴C corroborate the recent origin of the groundwaters in the study area.     

Differentiation of the Cuthbert Lake ultramafic dikes and related mafic dikes

In the Cuthbert Lake region of north-central Manitoba, northeasterly trending ultramafic-mafic dikes, part of the Molson dike swarm, show a range of composition from gabbro to olivine-hornblende pyroxenite to hornblende peridotite. The major dike which is ultramafic in composition is 60 m thick. Olivine and chromian spinel were the earliest cumulus phases formed in a subcrustal magma chamber before the emplacement of the dikes. Orthopyroxene and clinopyroxene were formed following emplacement at about 1120° C. Plagioclase and hornblende were the latest phases to crystallize from the intercumulus melt. Mineralogical and chemical variations across the major dike are interpreted to have resulted from flow differentiation of multiple injections of magma carrying suspended olivine crystals. Olivine phenocrysts changed their compositions from about Fo₈₇ to values ranging from Fo₈₀to Fo₇₃ as a function of the amount of intercumulus melt. The composition of this melt is estimated to have been basaltic. A mafic dike, about 10 m thick and occurring about 20 m away from the main ultramafic dike, is believed to have been formed from magmas that were tapped from an upper layer overlying the olivine-rich zone in a subcrustal magma chamber. Separation must have occurred when clinopyroxene and plagioclase appeared on the liquidus.Geological Survey of Canada Contribution 36486