From accessing to assessing forecasts: an end-to-end study of participatory climate forecast dissemination in Burkina Faso (West Africa)

This study compares responses to seasonal climate forecasts conducted by farmers of three agro-ecological zones of Burkina Faso, including some who had attended local level workshops and others who had not attended the workshops. While local inequalities and social tensions contributed to excluding some groups, about two-thirds of non-participants interviewed received the forecast from the participants or through various means deployed by the project. Interviews revealed that almost all those who received the forecasts by some mechanism (workshop or other) shared them with others. The data show that participants were more likely to understand the probabilistic aspect of the forecasts and their limitations, to use the information in making management decisions and by a wider range of responses. These differences are shown to be statistically significant. Farmers evaluated the forecasts as accurate and useful in terms of both material and non-material considerations. These findings support the hypothesis that participatory workshops can play a positive role in the provision of effective climate services to African rural producers. However, this role must be assessed in the context of local dynamics of power, which shape information flows and response options. Participation must also be understood beyond single events (such as workshops) and be grounded in sustained interaction and commitments among stakeholders. The conclusion of this study point to lessons learned and critical insights on the role of participation in climate-based decision support systems for rural African communities.     

A GCM study of future climate response to aerosol pollution reductions

We use the global atmospheric GCM aerosol model ECHAM5-HAM to asses possible impacts of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate. Air quality control strategies focus on the reduction of aerosol emissions. Here we investigate the extreme case of a maximum feasible end-of-pipe abatement of aerosols in the near term future (2030) in combination with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The temperature response of increasing GHG concentrations and reduced aerosol emissions leads to a global annual mean equilibrium temperature response of 2.18 K. When aerosols are maximally abated only in the Industry and Powerplant sector, while other sectors stay with currently enforced regulations, the temperature response is 1.89 K. A maximum feasible abatement applied in the Domestic and Transport sector, while other sectors remain with the current legislation, leads to a temperature response of 1.39 K. Increasing GHG concentrations alone lead to a temperature response of 1.20 K. We also simulate 2–5% increases in global mean precipitation among all scenarios considered, and the hydrological sensitivity is found to be significantly higher for aerosols than for GHGs. Our study, thus highlights the huge potential impact of future air pollution mitigation strategies on climate and supports the need for urgent GHG emission reductions. GHG and aerosol forcings are not independent as both affect and are influenced by changes in the hydrological cycle. However, within the given range of changes in aerosol emissions and GHG concentrations considered in this study, the climate response towards increasing GHG concentrations and decreasing aerosols emissions is additive.     

Evaluation of solar irradiance at the surface—inferences from in situ and satellite observations and a mesoscale model

Accurate information about the solar irradiance at the soil surface is essential for many agricultural, hydrological and environmental models that take into account the surface energy balance. The main goal of present study was to evaluate the solar irradiance predictions from the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (ARW) model for both clear sky and cloudy conditions. An extended observational dataset from the Georgia Automated Environmental Monitoring Network (AEMN) provided hourly solar irradiance at the surface and other collocated surface level measurements. The radiation bias (determined from the difference between the ARW predictions and AEMN observations) showed a linear relationship with the cloud optical depth and the cirrus cloud amount from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). For cloud-free days, the ARW model had a positive radiation bias that exceeded 120 W m^?2 over coastal and urban areas of Georgia. The model radiation and air temperature bias increased with increasing aerosol optical depth derived from the MODIS observations during the cloud-free days, attributed to fire events that lasted intermittently throughout the study period. The model biases of temperature, mixing ratio, wind speed, and soil moisture were linearly dependent on the radiation bias.     

Acceleration technique for Milankovitch type forcing in a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model: method and application for the Holocene

A method is introduced which allows the calculation of long-term climate trends within the framework of a coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model. The change in the seasonal cycle of incident solar radiation induced by varying orbital parameters has been accelerated by factors of 10 and 100 in order to allow transient simulations over the period from the mid-Holocene until today, covering the last 7,000 years. In contrast to conventional time-slice experiments, this approach is not restricted to equilibrium simulations and is capable to utilise all available data for validation. We find that opposing Holocene climate trends in tropics and extra-tropics are a robust feature in our experiments. Results from the transient simulations of the mid-Holocene climate at 6,000 years before present show considerable differences to atmosphere-alone model simulations, in particular at high latitudes, attributed to atmosphere-ocean-sea ice effects. The simulations were extended for the time period 1800–2000 AD, where, in contrast to the Holocene climate, increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere provide for the strongest driving mechanism. The experiments reveal that a Northern Hemisphere cooling trend over the Holocene is completely cancelled by the warming trend during the last century, which brings the recent global warming into a long-term context.     

Response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre to persistent North Atlantic oscillation like forcing

The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO?, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing.     

Ein Beitrag zur Petrographie Melilith-führender Olivinnephelinite aus dem Gebiet Fritzlar—Naumburg (Nordhessen)

Zusammenfassung Tertiäre Olivinnephelinite aus dem Gebiet zwischen Naumburg und Fritzlar südwestlich des Habichtswaldes bei Kassel wurden optisch, röntgenographisch und chemisch untersucht. Die Basalte gehören dem Stamm der Alkali-Olivin-Basalte an und zeigen bis auf Vorkommen im Nordteil des Untersuchungsgebietes ein in den Hauptgemengteilen petrographisch einheitliches Bild.Im Norden des Gebietes treten Limburgite sowie Basalte mit der Paragenese Analcim + Alkalifeldspat + Nephelin auf.Tuffe Bind nur im mittleren Teil des Untersuchungsgebietes aufgeschlossen, welches infolge seiner Morphologie als ein Haupteruptionszentrum anzusehen ist.In einem Teil der Basalte trio (örtlich im Bereich weniger m) Melilith stellen-Weise mit sanduhrförmig eingelagertem Pyroxen auf. Häufig ist der Melilith pseudomorphosiert zu Karbonat und Zeolith oder einer nicht näher bestimmbaren Tonmineralkomponente.Aus dem einheitlichen Bild dieser Basalte wird geschlossen, daß in sämtlichen Vorkommen außer im nördlichen Teil des Gebietes Melilith hätte gebildet werden können. Eine solche Möglichkeit lassen die in der Literatur angegebenen experimentellen Untersuchungen der jeweiligen Systeme zu. Gegen die Bildung von SiO₂-untersättigten Schmelzen durch Assimilation von Sedimenten werden petrographische und geochemische Beobachtungen angeführt. Die Frage nach der Bildung solcher Schmelzen kann jedoch an Hand des Untersuchungsmaterials nicht beantwortet werden. Es werden Reaktionen von Olivin, Pyroxen und Magnetit mit der Sehmelze beobachtet, die denen in experimentell untersuchten Systemen entsprechen.Für das sporadische Auftreten des Melilithes bzw. seiner Pseudomorphosen werden Reaktionen mit Restschmelzen angenommen. Ein Abquetschen dieser Restschmelzen vom Ort ihrer Entstehung kann für die Bildung von Analeim-Basalten im Norden des Untersuchungsgebietes verantwortlich sein.

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Tertiary olivine-nephelinites from the region between Naumburg and Fritzlar, southwest of the Habichtswald near Kassel were investigated by optical, x-ray, and chemical methods. The basalts belong to the alkali-olivine-type. They are petrographically uniform in terms of major constituents, except a few occurrences of limburgites and analcite-basalts in the northern part of the area. The latter contain the paragenesis analcite + alkali feldspar + nepheline. Pyroclastics are only exposed in the central part of the area. Because of its morphology this part may be considered as the main eruption center. Several of the basalt-masses contain melilite, locally in patches of a few meters in extent. Hour glass-shaped inclusions of pyroxene are observed in some of them. In many rocks melilite is replaced by carbonates and zeolites or a clay mineral which could not be precisely identified. It is concluded from the uniform character of these basalts that in all occurrences except the northern part of the area melilite could have been formed. This assumption is in accordance with the experimental results of the systems related to our problem (literature data). Petrological and geochemical observations in this area do not favour the formation of undersaturated liquids from the assimilation of sediments (hypothesis ofDaly andShand). Reactions are observed between the liquid and the minerals olivine, pyroxene and magnetite corresponding to those in experimentally investigated systems. The sporadic occurrence of melilite and its alteration products is derived from reactions with residual liquids. The analcite-basalts in the northern part of the area may originate from a separated residual liquid squeezed off its place of origin.

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Mit 18 Textabbildungen     

The Proterozoic (1.85 Ga) Älvestorp Conglomerate,Bergslagen, Central Sweden

The Älvestorp conglomerates, deposited in an alluvial fan setting, form part of the Svecofennian orogenic belt in west Bergslagen, south central Sweden and are estimated to be as old as c. 1.85 Ga. Reaching a thickness of one kilometre, their architecture and form suggest an alluvial origin. Along sections, massive conglomerates often grade into pebbly mudstones and greenschist facies slates, while pure slates with dolomite concretions and olistolites occur in dark slatey mudstones on the eastern shore of lake Brunnsjön. Inner fan trenches are filled with massive, clast‐supported conglomerates that contain more than 80 percent epiclastic tuffaceous material. The Älvestorp conglomerate is therefore classified as the product of a Proterozoic stream‐flow channel and debris flow, or alluvial fan. The Grythyttan Basin to the north originated by extension after the first of two orogenic stages of Bergslagen.     

Broadband imaging via direct inversion of blended dispersed source array data

Although seismic sources typically consist of identical broadband units alone, no physical constraint dictates the use of only one kind of device. We propose an acquisition method that involves the simultaneous exploitation of multiple types of sources during seismic surveys. It is suggested to replace (or support) traditional broadband sources with several devices individually transmitting diverse and reduced frequency bands and covering together the entire temporal and spatial bandwidth of interest. Together, these devices represent a so‐called dispersed source array. As a consequence, the use of simpler sources becomes a practical proposition for seismic acquisition. In fact, the devices dedicated to the generation of the higher frequencies may be smaller and less powerful than the conventional sources, providing the acquisition system with increased operational flexibility and decreasing its environmental impact. Offshore, we can think of more manageable boats carrying air guns of different volumes or marine vibrators generating sweeps with different frequency ranges. On land, vibrator trucks of different sizes, specifically designed for the emission of particular frequency bands, are preferred. From a manufacturing point of view, such source units guarantee a more efficient acoustic energy transmission than today's complex broadband alternatives, relaxing the low‐ versus high‐frequency compromise. Furthermore, specific attention can be addressed to choose shot densities that are optimum for different devices according to their emitted bandwidth. In fact, since the sampling requirements depend on the maximum transmitted frequencies, the appropriate number of sources dedicated to the lower frequencies is relatively small, provided the signal‐to‐noise ratio requirements are met. Additionally, the method allows to rethink the way to address the ghost problem in marine seismic acquisition, permitting to tow different sources at different depths based on the devices' individual central frequencies. As a consequence, the destructive interference of the ghost notches, including the one at 0 Hz, is largely mitigated. Furthermore, blended acquisition (also known as simultaneous source acquisition) is part of the dispersed source array concept, improving the operational flexibility, cost efficiency, and signal‐to‐noise ratio. Based on theoretical considerations and numerical data examples, the advantages of this approach and its feasibility are demonstrated.     

Drop shape and erosivity part II: Splash detachment,transport and erosivity indices

The relevance of drop shape for erosivity was tested for different combinations of drop sizes and fall heights. For all test combinations together the introduction of the observed drop shape in erosivity parameters only produces minor improvements in the relation between erosivity and detachment and transport by splash. This result is attributed to the dominance of oblate shapes in high velocity conditions. Using small fall heights and low fall velocities as in many rainfall simulators and drop tests it is shown that prolate drops produce a splash detachment which is 2 to 3 times higher than that produced by drops with an oblate shape at impact. As drop production in rainulators or for aggregate stability drop tests may result in more or less uncontrolled variations of drop shape, it is concluded that in addition to other test conditions drop shape should be specified. Moreover it is noted that the erosive capability of prolate drops can explain partly the high splash erosion amounts below vegetation.