Earthquake source nucleation process in the zone of a permanently creeping deep fault

The worldwide practice of earthquake prediction, whose beginning relates to the 1970s, shows that spatial manifestations of various precursors under real seismotectonic conditions are very irregular. As noted in [Kurbanov et al., 1980], zones of bending, intersection, and branching of deep faults, where conditions are favorable for increasing tangential tectonic stresses, serve as “natural amplifiers” of precursory effects. The earthquake of September 28, 2004, occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas deep fault in the area of a local bending of its plane. The fault segment about 60 km long and its vicinities are the oldest prognostic area in California. Results of observations before and after the earthquake were promptly analyzed and published in a special issue of Seismological Research Letters (2005, Vol. 76, no. 1). We have an original method enabling the monitoring of the integral rigidity of seismically active rock massifs. The integral rigidity is determined from the relative numbers of brittle and viscous failure acts during the formation of source ruptures of background earthquakes in a given massif. Fracture mechanisms are diagnosed from the steepness of the first arrival of the direct P wave. Principles underlying our method are described in [Lykov and Mostryukov, 1996, 2001, 2003]. Results of monitoring have been directly displayed at the site of the Laboratory (http://wwwbrk.adm.yar.ru/russian/1_512/index.html) since the mid-1990s. It seems that this information has not attracted the attention of American seismologists. This paper assesses the informativeness of the rigidity monitoring at the stage of formation of a strong earthquake source in relation to other methods.     

Crystal clots,amphibole fractionation and the evolution of calc-alkaline magmas

Petrographic and microprobe investigations of calc-alkaline (CA) rocks from the High Cascade Range (i.e., Mt. St. Helens, Mt. Jefferson, Crater Lake and Mt. Shasta) of western North America show that crystal clots represent primary igneous phase assemblages and are not products of amphibole reactions with melt. For each eruptive complex, crystal clots display diverse modal proportions even within a single eruptive unit. Nevertheless, in all cases the crystal-clot minerals are also represented in the rock as phenocrysts or microphenocrysts. Basalts contain clots of ol+plag+mgt, ol+mgt, cpx+ plag+mgt, cpx+mgt and plag+mgt; andesites, clots of cpx+mgt, opx+mgt, cpx+opx+plag+mgt, cpx+plag+mgt, opx+plag+mgt and plag±mgt; and dacites, clots of opx+mgt, cpx+opx+plag+ mgt, opx+plag+mgt, amph+plag+mgt±ilm, amph+mgt±ilm and plag±mgt. The bulk compositions of most of these clot assemblages could not have been derived from amphibole percursors. Although some amphiboles in dacitic rocks display a breakdown reaction of amph=plag+cpx+opx +mag, these mineral clusters, unlike those of clots, typically have a relict amphibole crystal outline and a fine-grained metamorphic texture. Plagioclase grains in the mineral clusters lack oscillatory zoning which is typical of crystal clot plagioclase grains. The euhedral to subhedral shapes of most clot minerals and the oscillatory zoning present in most clot plagioclase grains are not likely to have formed from the breakdown of amphibole. Crystal clots are also observed in Hawaiian and ocean floor basalts, although amphibole fractionation has not been proposed for those lavas. Magnetite fractionation may be the controlling process limiting iron enrichment in CA magmas rather than amphibole fractionation. Textural evidence indicates that magnetite is an early-forming phase in CA magmas. V, which is concentrated in magnetite, shows a strong decrease with increasing silica in many CA rocks, supporting a magnetite fractionation model.Hawaii Institute of Geophysics Contrib. No. 969     

The Signs and the Role of Structures of Subsurface Flow in Permafrost Zone

Water Resources - The subsurface runoff in the permafrost zone shows considerable structural and seasonal specifics. The structural features are due, on the one hand, to the lithologically...     

Recent Results from Studies of Electric Discharges in the Mesosphere

The paper reviews recent advances in studies of electric discharges in the stratosphere and mesosphere above thunderstorms, and their effects on the atmosphere. The primary focus is on the sprite discharge occurring in the mesosphere, which is the most commonly observed high altitude discharge by imaging cameras from the ground, but effects on the upper atmosphere by electromagnetic radiation from lightning are also considered. During the past few years, co-ordinated observations over Southern Europe have been made of a wide range of parameters related to sprites and their causative thunderstorms. Observations have been complemented by the modelling of processes ranging from the electric discharge to perturbations of trace gas concentrations in the upper atmosphere. Observations point to significant energy deposition by sprites in the neutral atmosphere as observed by infrasound waves detected at up to 1000 km distance, whereas elves and lightning have been shown significantly to affect ionization and heating of the lower ionosphere/mesosphere. Studies of the thunderstorm systems powering high altitude discharges show the important role of intracloud (IC) lightning in sprite generation as seen by the first simultaneous observations of IC activity, sprite activity and broadband, electromagnetic radiation in the VLF range. Simulations of sprite ignition suggest that, under certain conditions, energetic electrons in the runaway regime are generated in streamer discharges. Such electrons may be the source of X- and Gamma-rays observed in lightning, thunderstorms and the so-called Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes (TGFs) observed from space over thunderstorm regions. Model estimates of sprite perturbations to the global atmospheric electric circuit, trace gas concentrations and atmospheric dynamics suggest significant local perturbations, and possibly significant meso-scale effects, but negligible global effects.     

Explicit integration of bounding surface model for the analysis of earthquake soil liquefaction

This paper presents a new plasticity model developed for the simulation of monotonic and cyclic loading of non‐cohesive soils and its implementation to the commercial finite‐difference code FLAC, using its User‐Defined‐Model (UDM) capability. The new model incorporates the framework of Critical State Soil Mechanics, while it relies upon bounding surface plasticity with a vanished elastic region to simulate the non‐linear soil response. Stress integration of constitutive relations is performed using a recently proposed explicit scheme with automatic error control and substepping, which so far has been employed in the literature only for constitutive models aiming at monotonic loading. The overall accuracy of this scheme is evaluated at element level by simulating cyclic loading along complex stress paths and by using iso‐error maps for paths involving change of the Lode angle. The performance of the new constitutive model and its stress integration scheme in complex boundary value problems involving earthquake‐induced liquefaction is evaluated, in terms of accuracy and computational cost, via a number of parametric analyses inspired by the successful simulation of the VELACS centrifuge Model Test No. 2 studying the lateral spreading response of a liquefied sand layer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

Distribution of Ixodes ricinus L., 1758 and Ixodes persulcatus Shulze, 1930 (Parasitoformes,Ixodidae) in Russia and adjacent countries in view of observable climate changes

Possible changes in the area inhabited by the ticks Ixodes ricinus and Ixodes persulcatus, the main transmitters of tick-borne encephalitis and Lyme disease in Russia, caused by temperature changes in 1976–2005 compared to 1946–1975 are discussed. It is shown that these changes could result in some areal expansion of these species. In the European part of Russia, I. ricinus expanded its areal boundaries to the east 100–300 km. I. persulcatus expanded its areal in the Asian part of Russia. Its boundary moved to the north and northeast 100–300 km. Areal expansion both of species has not been observed.     

The Location of Office Space in the Metropolitan Service Economy of the United States, 1985–1990

As the economic base of most American metropolitan areas relies increasingly on services, office industries have shifted to a more pivotal role in the new metropolitan service economy. Using primary office-space usage data of the time period 1985–1990, the changing spatial patterns of this new metropolitan service economy are investigated. It is found that the primary office activities are predominantly concentrated in a relatively small number of the largest metropolitan areas. However, an emerging spatial dispersion in primary office activities is also exhibited. Such dispersion is extremely strong at the upper end of the urban hierarchy. The Sunbelt-Snowbelt dichotomy fails to reveal any differences in the growth pattern of the new metropolitan service economy. A more diversified growth pattern of primary office activities is observed. Concentrated dispersion is the major spatial characteristic of this new metropolitan service economy.     

Paleoclimate changes in the late precambrian: Evidence from the upper precambrian section of the South Urals

The climatic impact on the formation of fine-grained rocks from the Riphean stratotype and Vendian Asha Group on the western slope of the South Urals during the time interval lasting approximately 1200 Ma is considered. It is shown that these rocks are largely represented by “tectonosilicate-dominated” shales. This feature combined with changes in the average K₂O/Al₂O₃ values disavows the hypothesis in (Kennedy et al., 2006), according to which the growth of free oxygen concentration in the Late Riphean and Vendian atmosphere was determined by gradual intensification of the organic carbon extraction from the biosphere by clays. The average values of the hydrolyzate module, chemical index of alteration (CIA), and several lithogeochemical parameters calculated for the Riphean and Vendian clayey rocks provide grounds for the conclusion that intensity of weathering in paleodrainage areas during the accumulation of the Upper Precambrian sedimentary successions was low. The curve reflecting changes of the average CIA values in the Upper Precambrian fine-grained siliciclastic rocks of the South Urals is similar to some extent with the “standard” CIA_correct. curve (GonzalezAlvarez and Kerrich, 2012). It is assumed that changes in microand macrobiotic communities during the Late Precambrian were controlled to a variable extent by climate fluctuations as well. At the same time, these fluctuations most likely left the chemical composition of water in the ocean virtually unchanged, which is evident from analysis of the redox conditions in the ocean and the distribution of primary producers with the average CIA_correct. and CIA values.