Seasonal predictions based on two dynamical models

Abstract

Two dynamical models are used to perform a series of seasonal predictions. One model, referred to as GCM2, was designed as a general circulation model for climate studies, while the second one, SEF, was designed for numerical weather prediction. The seasonal predictions cover the 26‐year period 1969–1994. For each of the four seasons, ensembles of six forecasts are produced with each model, the six runs starting from initial conditions six hours apart. The sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly for the month prior to the start of the forecast is persisted through the three‐month prediction period, and added to a monthly‐varying climatological SST field.

The ensemble‐mean predictions for each of the models are verified independently, and the two ensembles are blended together in two different ways: as a simple average of the two models, denoted GCMSEF, and with weights statistically determined to minimize the mean‐square error (the Best Linear Unbiased Estimate (BLUE) method).

The GCMSEF winter and spring predictions show a Pacific/North American (PNA) response to a warm tropical SST anomaly. The temporal anomaly correlation between the zero‐lead GCMSEF mean‐seasonal predictions and observations of the 500‐hPa height field (Z₅₀₀) shows statistically significant forecast skill over parts of the PNA area for all seasons, but there is a notable seasonal variability in the distribution of the skill. The GCMSEF predictions are more skilful than those of either model in winter, and about as skilful as the better of the two models in the other seasons.

The zero‐lead surface air temperature GCMSEF forecasts over Canada are found to be skilful (a) over the west coast in all seasons except fall, (b) over most of Canada in summer, and (c) over Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec in the fall. In winter the skill of the BLUE forecasts is substantially better than that of the GCMSEF predictions, while for the other seasons the difference in skill is not statistically significant.

When the Z₅₀₀ forecasts are averaged over months two and three of the seasons (one‐month lead predictions), they show skill in winter over the north‐eastern Pacific, western Canada and eastern North America, a skill that comes from those years with strong SST anomalies of the El Niño/La Niña type. For the other seasons, predictions averaged over months two and three show little skill in Z₅₀₀ in the mid‐latitudes. In the tropics, predictive skill is found in Z₅₀₀ in all seasons when a strong SST anomaly of the El Niño/La Niña type is observed. In the absence of SST anomalies of this type, tropical forecast skill is still found over much of the tropics in months two and three of the northern hemisphere spring and summer, but not in winter and fall.     

Temporal evolution and compositional signatures of two supervolcanic systems recorded in zircons from Mangakino volcanic centre,New Zealand

Mangakino, the oldest rhyolitic caldera centre delineated in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand, generated two very large (super-sized) ignimbrite eruptions, the 1.21 ± 0.04 Ma >500 km³ Ongatiti and ~1.0 Ma ~1,200 km³ Kidnappers events, the latter of which was followed after a short period of erosion by the ~200 km³ Rocky Hill eruption. We present U/Pb ages and trace-element analyses on zircons from pumice clasts from these three eruptions by Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) using SHRIMP-RG instruments to illustrate the evolution of the respective magmatic systems. U–Pb age spectra from the Ongatiti imply growth of the magmatic system over ~250 kyr, with a peak of crystallisation around 1.32 Ma, ~100 kyr prior to eruption. The zircons are inferred to have then remained stable in a mush with little crystallisation and/or dissolution before later rejuvenation of the system at the lead-in to eruption. The paired Kidnappers and Rocky Hill eruptions have U–Pb zircon ages and geochemical signatures that suggest they were products of a common system grown over ~200 kyr. The Kidnappers and Rocky Hill samples show similar weakly bimodal age spectra, with peaks at 1.1 and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that an inherited antecrystic population was augmented by crystals grown at ages within uncertainty of the eruption age. In the Kidnappers, this younger age peak is dominantly seen in needle-shaped low U grains with aspect ratios of up to 18. In all three deposits, zircon cores show larger ranges and higher absolute concentrations of trace elements than zircon rims, consistent with zircon crystallisation from evolving melts undergoing crystal fractionation involving plagioclase and amphibole. Abundances and ratios of many trace elements frequently show variations between different sectors within single grains, even where there is no visible sector zoning in cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging. Substitution mechanisms, as reflected in the molar (Sc + Y + REE³⁺)/P ratio, differ in the same growth zone between the sides (along a-axis and b-axis: values approaching 1.0) and tips (c-axis: values between 1.5 and 5.0) of single crystals. These observations have implications for the use of zircons for tracking magmatic processes, particularly in techniques where CL zonation within crystals is not assessed and small analytical spot sizes cannot be achieved. These observations also limit applicability of the widely used Ti-in-zircon thermometer. The age spectra for the Ongatiti and Kidnappers/Rocky Hill samples indicate that both magmatic systems were newly built in the time-breaks after respective previous large eruptions from Mangakino. Trace element variations defining three-component mixing suggest that zircons, sourced from multiple melts, contributed to the population in each system.     

Maya utilization of karst groundwater resources

Much of the Maya civilization in pre-Columbian Meso-America was established on karst terrain that included parts of what are now Belize, Guatemala, northern Honduras and southern Mexico. By definition, little surface water exists in karst, so for the Maya to flourish on that terrain they had to effectively and efficiently utilize all their water resources. Access to groundwater was by means of springs and caves. Maya life, urban and rural, lay and elite, religious and secular was often a function of groundwater exploitation and surface water development. The Maya's use of groundwater was predominantly to supplement enhanced surface water supplies and was used more often in semiarid zones than in humid zones. The pattern of Maya settlements, especially in the semiarid zones, occurred in areas with greater access to the groundwater. Maya groundwater retrieval methods were primitive, inefficient, labor intensive, and uninnovative, as compared to their other technologic achievements. Groundwater contamination, from human effluent, could have resulted in widespread disease and contributed to the Maya's downfall.     

Long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset over western India

The date of onset of the southwest monsoon in western India is critical for farmers as it influences the timing of crop plantation and the duration of the summer rainy season. Identifying long-term variability in the date of monsoon onset is difficult, however, as onset dates derived from the reanalysis of instrumental rainfall data are only available for the region from 1879. This study uses documentary evidence and newly uncovered instrumental data to reconstruct annual monsoon onset dates for western India for the period 1781–1878, extending the existing record by 97 years. The mean date of monsoon onset over the Mumbai (Bombay) area during the reconstruction period was 10 June with a standard deviation of 6.9 days. This is similar to the mean and standard deviation of the date of monsoon onset derived from instrumental data for the twentieth century. The earliest identified onset date was 23 May (in 1802 and 1839) and the latest 22 June (in 1825). The longer-term perspective provided by this study suggests that the climatic regime that governs monsoon advance over western India did not change substantially from 1781 to 1955. Monsoon onset over Mumbai has occurred at a generally later date since this time. Our results indicate that this change is unprecedented during the last 230 years. Following a discussion of the results, the nature of the relationship between the date of monsoon onset and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is discussed. This relationship is shown to have been stable since 1781.     

Apparent counter-gradient heat fluxes generated by atmospheric waves

In studies of turbulence, tower data are used to measure vertical fluxes of momentum and heat generated by correlations in the fluctuating fields. Similar time averages of wu and w may be computed for an interval of wave activity observed at an instrumented tower. However, it is shown that such measurements do not necessarily correspond to the conventional Reynold's stresses or vertical heat fluxes. And waves can appear to have non-zero and even countergradient fluxes when proper averages show no fluxes at all.These spurious fluxes are generated by the method of analysis, a Fourier series performed on a finite time interval. Any background disturbance that is not strictly confined to the interval will generate a spurious wave spectrum. In particular, long-period waves will generate terms that interfere with the true high frequency waves to give false wave fluxes. The theoretical findings of this paper provide a ready explanation of tower data that would otherwise appear to conflict with conventional wave theory.     

Fossil-pollen evidence for abrupt climate changes during the past 18 000 years in eastern North America

A quantitative measure of the rate at which fossil-pollen abundances changed over the last 18 000 years at 18 sites spread across eastern North America distinguishes local from regionally synchronous changes. Abrupt regional changes occurred at most sites in late-glacial time (at 13700, 12 300, and 10000 radiocarbon yr BP) and during the last 1000 years. The record of abrupt late-glacial vegetation changes in eastern North America correlates well with abrupt global changes in ice-sheet volume, mountain snow-lines, North Atlantic deep-water production, atmospheric CO₂, and atmospheric dust, although the palynological signal varies from site to site. Changes in vegetation during most of the Holocene, although locally significant, were not regionally synchronous. The analysis reveals non-alpine evidence for Neoglacial/Little Ice Age climate change during the last 1000 years, which was the only time during the Holocene when climate change was of sufficient magnitude to cause a synchronous vegetational response throughout the subcontinent. During the two millennia preceding this widespread synchronous change, the rate of change at all sites was low and the average rate of change was the lowest of the Holocene.Contribution to Clima Locarno Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Memories of Fire: Eduardo Galeano and the Geography of Guatemala

In Memory of Fire, a poetic narration of the history of the Americas from pre-Columbian times to the late 20th century, Eduardo Galeano furnishes readers with over 1200 of his trademark vignettes, some 35 of which pertain to Guatemala. Galeano evokes disparate aspects of the geography of Guatemala, past and present, in grounded miniatures of time, place, and episode. His sketches of the experiences of Maya peoples allow us to see them as survivors of three cycles of conquest: (1) conquest by imperial Spain; (2) conquest by local and international capitalism; and (3) conquest by state terror. Composed in the literary mode of creative non-fiction, Memory of Fire serves as an inspirational classroom text, exposing students not only to factual detail but also a powerful artistic imagination.     

Iterative selective spatial variance reduction of MYD11A2 LST data

The aim of this research effort is to develop a method that will allow to map and evaluate thermal anomalies in SW USA from the MYD11A2 night land surface temperature (LST) imagery being available for the year 2014, that present higher spatial (1 km) and temporal (46 images per year) resolution than the MYD11C3 LST data (12 images per year at 5.6 km spatial resolution). The fact that is MYD11A2 LST imagery is projected to a rectangular grid did not affect the X, Y and elevation (H) spatial decorrelation stretch. Principal component analysis and linear regression models isolated and removed the X, Y, H (spatial) dependent variance included in the data while metrics devised verified the selective spatial variance reduction. The reconstructed 46 LST images represent the amount the LST deviates from the X, Y and H predicted for the year 2014. The thematic information content of the reconstructed LST images is verified by cluster analysis and mapped the spatial extend and the temporal variability of thermal anomalies within the study area. The positive thermal anomaly clusters are spatially arranged mainly west of Sierra Nevada in Great Basin Section where extensional tectonics create a series of titled elongated mountain blocks along the N to S direction in between basins bounded by normal faults, while the negative thermal anomaly clusters are spatially arranged along the coastal region, further north and in the western region far from the tilted mountain tectonic blocks of the Great Basin Section. The spatial maps that define regions with (positive or negative) thermal anomalies and distinct mean land response could assist landcover studies and support urban and rural planning in the context of emerging climatic change.     

Estimation of peak relative velocity and peak absolute acceleration of linear SDOF systems

In the seismic analysis and design of structures, the true velocity and absolute acceleration are usually approximated by their corresponding pseudo-values. This approach is simple and works well for structures with small damping (say, less than 15%). When the damping of a structure is enhanced for the purpose of response reduction, it may result in large analysis and design errors. Based on theory of random vibration and the established mechanism of seismic response spectra analysis, a method is developed (1) to predict the relative velocity spectra with any damping ratio level directly from the 5% standard pseudo-acceleration spectrum; and (2) to estimate the peak absolute acceleration. The accuracy of both is validated by using two selected ensembles of ground motion records.