Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Fire Regimes in the Tropics Based on Magicc and a GISS GCM-Derived Lightning Model

Investigations of the ecological, atmospheric chemical, and climatic impacts of contemporary fires in tropical vegetation have received increasing attention during the last 10 years. Little is known, however, about the impacts of climate changes on tropical vegetation and wildland fires. This paper summarizes the main known interactions of fire, vegetation, and atmosphere. Examples of predictive models on the impacts of climate change on the boreal and temperate zones are given in order to highlight the possible impacts on the tropical forest and savanna biomes and to demonstrate parameters that need to be involved in this process. Response of tropical vegetation to fire is characterized by degradation towards xerophytic and pyrophytic plant communities dominated by grasses and fire-tolerant tree and bush invaders. The potential impacts of climate change on tropical fire regimes are investigated using a GISS GCM-based lightning and fire model and the Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas-Induced Climate Change (MAGICC).     

Activity-composition relationship in Tschermak's substituted Fe biotites at 700°C, 2 kbar

The reaction-displacement technique was applied to the end-member reaction annite = sanidine + magnetite + H₂ in order to determine the activity of the annite component (a _Ann) in iron biotites with variable degrees of the Tschermak's substitution (^[6]Fe + ^[4]Si = ^[6]Al + ^[4]Al). Based on the simplified relation a _Ann = f _{H 2}/foH₂ (foH₂ = hydrogen fugacity of the end-member reaction at P, T), two types of experiments were performed at 700°C / 2 kbar: Type I used Fe-Al biotites of known starting composition together with sanidine + magnetite + H₂O. This assemblage was exposed to various f _{H 2} conditions (f _{H 2} < foH₂) produced in the pressure vessel either by using different ratios of water/oil as pressure medium (f _{H 2} in this case was measured by the hydrogen sensor technique), or by the Ni′NiO buffer. The composition of the Fe-Al biotites changed through incorporation or release of the annite component in response to the externally imposed f _{H 2}. By using opposite biotite starting compositions, the equilibrium composition as a function of f _H2 was bracketed. For type II, f _{H 2} in equilibrium with a specific combination of fine-grained Fe-Al biotite (+ sanidine + magnetite + H₂O) was measured internally by application of the hydrogen sensor technique. Both type I and type II experiments yield consistent results demonstrating that a fine-grained assemblage of Fe-Al biotite (+ sanidine + magnetite + H₂O) is able to act as a sliding-scale buffer. The final chemical composition of the Fe-Al biotite after the experiments was determined by electron microprobe and Mössbauer spectroscopy. The ^[4]Al and ^[6]Al in the biotites are coupled according to the Tschermak's substitution. In the tetrahedral sheet 0.1 Al-atoms per formula unit are present in excess to the amount required to balance ^[6]Al, and all Fe-Al biotites contain 8–10% Fe³⁺. Therefore, they are not members of the pure annite - siderophyllite join, but have an almost constant amount (15 Mol%) of two additional Fe³⁺-bearing components (ferri-siderophyllite and a vacancy end-member). The volume - composition relationship obtained does not indicate excess molar volumes of mixing for the annite (Ann) - siderophyllite (Sid) binary. The data are consistent with a molar volume of annite of 15.46 ± 0.02 Jbar^–1 and of 15.06 ± 0.02 Jbar^–1 for siderophyllite. The experimentally determined activity - composition relation shows that biotites on the join annite - siderophyllite deviate negatively from ideality. A symmetric interaction parameter W_AnnSid is sufficient to represent the data within error. This was constrained as: W _AnnSid = –29 ± 4 kJmol^–1. This is in contradiction to empirical interaction parameters derived from natural assemblages for this binary that predict positive deviation from ideality. Reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.     

Effect of grossular-content in garnet on the partitioning of Fe and Mg between garnet and biotite

In contrast to Ferry (1980) (X _Ca)-values in garnet even lower than 0.1 have a significant effect on the calculated equilibrium temperature using the experimental calibration of the Fe and Mg paritioning between garnet and biotite. Garnet compositions and Mg/Fe — distribution coefficients from samples of the Eoalpine staurolite — in zone in the southern Ötztal are related by the quadratic regression equation: InK _D= -1.7500 (±0.0226) + 2.978 (±0.5317)X _Ca ^Gt -5.906(±2.359)(X _Ca ^Gt )² Temperatures derived by the Ferry and Spear (1978) calibration using chemistry — correctedK _D values are petrologically realistic.Analysis of our data supports non ideal mixing of grossular with almandine — pyrope solid solution. The derived excess mixing energies are quite small for the almandine — pyrope solution (W _FeMg= –133 cal/mole) and about +2775 cal/mole for the difference between pyrope-grossular and almandine-grossular solutions (W _MgCa —W _FeCa) at metamorphic conditions of 570° C and 5,000 bar. The mixing parameters proposed by Ganguly and Saxena (1984) are not confirmed by our data as they would result in significantly lower temperatures.     

Least squares parameter estimation in chaotic differential equations

A recent least squares algorithm, which is designed to adapt implicit models to given sets of data, especially models given by differential equations or dynamical systems, is reviewed and used to fit the Hénon-Heiles differential equations to chaotic data sets.This numerical approach for estimating parameters in differential equation models, called theboundary value problem approach, is based on discretizing the differential equations like a boundary value problem,e.g. by a multiple shooting or collocation method, and solving the resulting constrained least squares problem with a structure exploiting generalized Gauss-Newton-Method (Bock, 1981).Dynamical systems like the Hénon-Heiles system which can have initial values and parameters that lead to positive Lyapunov exponents or phase space filling Poincaré maps give rise to chaotic time series. Various scenarios representing ideal and noisy data generated from the Hénon-Heiles system in the chaotic region are analyzedw.r.t. initial conditions, parameters and Lyapunov exponents. The original initial conditions and parameters are recovered with a given accuracy. The Lyapunov spectrum is then computed directly from the identified differential equations and compared to the spectrum of the true dynamics.presently at IWR, Universität Heidelberg, Im Neuenheimer Feld 368, D-6900 Heidelberg, Germany     

Effects of larval density and salinity on the development of perch larvae (Perca fluviatilis L.)

We performed two experiments, one to test whether survival and initial swim bladder inflation of perchPerca fluviatilis are affected by population density (4 or 16 larvae 1^–1) or salinity (0, 0.6 and 1.2), and the second to test the salinity tolerance of larvae. In experiment 1, survival was higher at low larval densities and at salinities of 0.6 and 1.2 rather than in fresh water. Initial swim bladder inflation was not affected by salinity or density. Average survival of fry 24 days after hatching varied from 29.6% to 86.3%, but only an average of 19.2% of the hatched larvae had grown into viable fish with an inflated swim bladder. In experiment 2, survival varied from 19% to 49%, but was not significantly affected by salinities of up to 4.8. At a salinity of 9.6, only 2 out of 344 larvae survived.     

Velocity profiles and basal stresses in natural debris flows

The internal deformation within debris flows holds essential information on dynamics and flow resistance of such mass-wasting processes. Systematic measurements of velocity profiles in real-scale debris flows are not yet available. Additionally, data on basal stresses of the solid and the fluid phase are rare. Here, we present and analyse measurements of vertical velocity profiles in two debris flows naturally occurring in the Gadria Creek, Italy. The method is based on cross-correlation of paired conductivity signals from an array of sensors installed on a fin-shaped wall located in the middle of the channel. Additionally, we measure normal stress and pore fluid pressure by two force plates with integrated pressure transducers. We find internal deformation throughout the flows. Only at the very front was some en-bloc movement observed. Velocity profiles varied from front to tail and between flows. For one debris flow, pore fluid pressure close to normal stress was measured, whereas the other flow was less liquefied. The median shear rates were mostly less than 5 s⁻¹ and Savage numbers at the basal layer ranged from 0.01 to 1. Our results highlight the variable nature of debris flows and provide quantitative data on shear rate and basal stress distribution to help guide model development for hazard assessment and landscape evolution. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

A comparison of biological trends from four marine ecosystems: Synchronies, differences, and commonalities

Major features of four marine ecosystems were analyzed based on a broad range of fisheries-associated datasets and a suite of oceanographic surveys. The ecosystems analyzed included the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, the Norwegian/Barents Seas in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean, and the eastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. We examined survey trends in major fish abundances, total system fish biomass, and zooplankton biomasses. We standardized each time series and examined trends and anomalies over time, using both time series and cross-correlational statistical methods. We compared dynamics of functionally analogous species from each of these four ecosystems. Major commonalities among ecosystems included a relatively stable amount of total fish biomass and the importance of large calanoid copepods, small pelagic fishes and gadids. Some of the changes in these components were synchronous across ecosystems. Major differences between ecosystems included gradients in the magnitude of total fish biomass, commercial fish biomass, and the timing of major detected events. This work demonstrates the value of comparative analysis across a wide range of marine ecosystems, suggestive of very few but none-the-less detectable common features across all northern hemisphere ocean systems.