新疆地震趋势的模糊灰色预测

从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。     

天水地区大地电磁测量及深部电性结构

天水地区的大地电磁测量结果表明，在４３ｋｍ左右的深度上普遍存在高导层，这可能是壳幔过渡带的反映。岩石圈厚度大约９５－１１０ｋｍ。在天水太京附近可能存在一条大型近东西向地壳－岩石圈构造带，在秦安以北的叶堡和陇城附近可能也存在一条近南北向的大型地壳－岩石圈构造带，它们都是不同构造单元的分界线。１６５４年天水８级大震可能与深部热异常引起的热应力有关。     

Experimental study of surface texture and resonance mechanism of booming sand

The sound-producing mechanism of booming sand has long been a pending problem in the blown sand physics. Based on the earlier researches, the authors collected some silent sand samples from Teng- ger Desert, Australian Desert, Kuwait Desert, beaches of Hainan Island and Japanese coast as well as the soundless booming sand samples from the Mingsha Mountain in Dunhuang to make washing ex- periments. In the meantime the chemical corrosion experiment of glass micro-spheres, surface coating experiment and SEM examination were also conducted. The experimental results show that the sound production of booming sand seems to have nothing to do with the presence of SiO2 gel on the surface of sand grains and unrelated to the surface chemical composition of sand grains but is related to the resonance cavities formed by porous (pit-like) physical structure resulting from a number of factors such as wind erosion, water erosion, chemical corrosion and SiO2 gel deposition, etc. Its resonance mechanism is similar to that of Hemholz resonance cavity. Under the action of external forces, nu- merous spherical and sand grains with smooth surface and porous surface are set in motion and rub with each other to produce extremely weak vibration sound and then become audible sound by human ears through the magnification of surface cavity resonance. However the booming sands may lose their resonance mechanism and become silent sand due to the damping action caused by the invasion of finer particles such as dust and clay into surface holes of sand grains. Therefore, clearing away fine pollutants on the quartz grain surface is an effective way to make silent sand emit audible sound.     

帕米尔东北缘及塔里木盆地西北部弧形构造的扩展特征

归纳了帕米尔东北缘弧形构造的基本特征 ,分析了塔里木盆地西北部EW向逆断裂背斜带与NNW向隐伏走滑断裂之间的关系。通过塔里木盆地与西南天山和帕米尔东北缘变形特征的对比 ,认为塔里木盆地西北部的变形样式与帕米尔东北缘的弧形构造类似 ,弧形构造具有由帕米尔东北缘向塔里木盆地扩展的特征 ,这种构造是帕米尔向北挤入运动所特有的变形样式     

新疆7级强震前的围空特征

讨论了新疆40年代以来所发生的8次7级强震前的围空现象。结果表明,除1974年巴里坤7.1级地震因资料不全外,7级强震前均出现明显的围空现象。研究发现,这种围空一般都经历了三个过程,时间通常为10—20年。最后分析讨论了7级强震前围空的特征以及判别指标。这将为今后确定强震危险区提供依据。     

相对点位中误差及其在工程测量中的作用

阐述相对点位中误差的概念及其在工程测量中的作用,介绍相对点位中误差及相对误差椭园计算方法,以示例说明点位中误差和相对点位中误差的意义和作用。     

高精度磁测考古的进展

概述了高精度磁测考古的对象,及其对测网布置、仪器和测量方式的选择以及日变观测方面的要求,并提出了进行高精度磁测考古的野外工作方法和技术要领。     

冀东牛心山金矿区岩浆岩特征及其成因探讨

本区岩浆岩以花岗岩为主体,只在岩浆演化晚期有少量中性岩岩墙。岩浆演化及岩石化学、稀土元素、同位素等特征表明,岩浆是燕山运动早期构成下地壳的基性物质经部分重熔形成,熔融早期最低熔融组分形成花岗岩浆,进一步重熔,晚期形成少量中性岩浆。     

新疆北天山地区中强震前单台地震波参数异常特征研究

强地震的孕育过程也是孕震介质的形成过程,在强震前震源附近小地震的地震波运动学,动力学特征的变化过程,则反映了孕震介质的变化过程,为研究地震的孕育,发展和发生的过程,采用单台地震波振幅比,尾波持续时间比,尾波衰减系数这３项地震波参数作为地震学短期前兆指标,分析其震兆特征,从而达到监测孕震介质变化的目的,研究结果表明,单台地震波参数能够有效地发现地震的前兆,但地震波参数的前兆图像复杂多变,不具有统一的     

Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.