Bayesian comparison of different rainfall depth–duration–frequency relationships

Depth–duration–frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations. An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to model and compare independence or dependence hypotheses between the different durations. Dependence is modelled using the bivariate extreme logistic distribution. The results are calculated in a Bayesian framework with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The application to a data series from Marseille shows an improvement of the hourly estimations thanks to the combination between hourly and daily data in the model. Moreover, results are significantly different with or without dependence hypotheses: the dependence between 24 and 72 h durations is significant, and the quantile estimates are more severe in the dependence case.     

夹有泥皮粗粒土与结构接触面力学特性试验研究

进行了粗粒土与结构之间夹有泥皮和无泥皮两种状态的接触面单调和循环剪切试验,初步研究了夹有泥皮时接触面静动力学特性的规律和作用机理。试验表明,泥皮对粗粒土与结构接触面的力学特性有重要影响。当泥皮不厚时,接触面仍表现出粗粒土与结构接触面的基本力学特性。泥皮越厚,接触面的抗剪强度越低,相对法向位移会越大。当泥皮极厚时,泥皮将隔断粗粒土与结构面的接触而成为泥皮与结构接触面。泥皮对接触面力学特性的影响程度不仅与泥皮本身的特性及其厚度有关,还与构成接触面的结构面材料与粗粒土的特性有关。     

粗粒土与结构接触面的可逆性与不可逆性剪胀规律

进行了粗粒土与结构接触面的单调和往返剪切试验,研究了接触面的剪胀特性。试验结果表明,接触面的剪胀体应变是由一个完全可逆性的体应变分量和一个不可逆性的体应变分量构成的。不可逆性剪胀体应变反映了接触面内的土颗粒破碎和剪切压密两种物态变化,其变化规律与接触面的应力相对位移关系的演化规律具有相似性,是接触面力学特性演化的一个重要量度。可逆性剪胀体应变存在相变点,并表现出明显的剪切异向性,该异向性的主要内因是由于剪切引起的结构面附近土的结构异向性。基于接触面受力变形机理分析,引入有效剪应变等概念,建立了剪胀方程。     

土与土工织物接触面力学特性的试验研究

在大型土与结构接触面循环加载剪切仪上添加了拉拔试验模块,进行了大尺寸的粗粒土与土工布接触面的单调和往返剪切试验以及土工布拉拔试验。剪切试验结果表明,粗粒土与土工布接触面出现了一定程度的应变软化,相对法向位移的变化受法向应力影响很大,并表现出异向性。土工布拉拔试验结果表明,由于土与土工织物接触面的剪胀造成该类接触面的抗剪强度与法向应力不再是线性关系;将接触面剪切试验和拉拔试验方法结合起来是研究土与土工织物接触面力学特性较为全面和合理的手段。     

The Holocene volcanic history of Gran Canaria island: implications for volcanic hazards

Previous published data, combined with our results of 13 new radiocarbon ages and extensive geological fieldwork, indicate that during the past 11 ka 24 monogenetic basaltic eruptions occurred in the north sector of Gran Canaria. These eruptions can be grouped into three periods of eruptive activity: 1900–3200 ¹⁴C a BP; 5700–6000 ¹⁴C a BP; and an older period represented by only one eruption, El Draguillo, dated at 10 610 ± 190 ¹⁴C a BP. Archaeological studies have shown that the more recent eruptions affected prehistoric human settlements on the island. Field studies demonstrate that the eruptions typically built strombolian cones (30–250 m in height) and associated relatively long lava flows (100–10 350 m in length); a few eruptions also produced tephra fall deposits. The total erupted volume of these eruptions is about 0.388 km³ (46.1% as tephra fall, 41.8% as cinder cone deposits and 12.1% as lava flows). The relatively low eruption rate (～0.04 km³ ka^?1) during the past 11 ka is consistent with Gran Canaria's stage of evolution in the regional volcano‐tectonic setting of the Canary Archipelago. The results of our study were used to construct a volcanic hazards map that clearly delimits two sectors in the NE sector of Gran Canaria, where potential future eruptions would pose a substantial risk for densely populated areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tidal circulation and buoyancy effects in the St. Lawrence Estuary

Abstract

The action of tides on density‐driven circulation, internal gravity waves, and mixing was investigated in the St. Lawrence Estuary between Rimouski and Québec City. Time‐varying fields of water level, currents and density were computed under typical summer conditions using a three‐dimensional hydrostatic coastal ocean model that incorporates a second order turbulence closure submodel. These results are compared with current meter records and other observations. The model and the observations reveal buoyancy effects produced by tidal forcing. The semi‐diurnal tide raises the isopycnals over the sills at the head of the Laurentian Trough and English Bank, producing internal tides radiating seaward. Relatively dense intermediate waters rise from below 75‐m depth to the near surface over the sills, setting up gravity currents on the inner slopes. Internal hydraulic controls develop over the outer sills; during flood, surface flow separation occurs at the entrances of the Saguenay Fjord and the upper estuary west of Ilet Rouge Bank. Early during ebb flow (restratification), the surface layer deepens to encompass the tops of the sills. As the ebb current intensifies, the model predicts the formation of seaward internal jumps over the outer sills, which were confirmed from acoustic reflection observations. As the internal Froude number increases further, flow separation migrates up to sill height. As a result of these transitions, internal bores emanate from the head region one to two hours before low water. We find that the mixing of oceanic and surface waters near the sills is driven by the vertical shear produced during ebb in the channel south of Ilet Rouge, the shear produced in the bottom gravity flood currents, and, to a lesser extent, the processes over the sills.     

From discrete to continuum modelling of boundary value problems in geomechanics: An integrated FEM-DEM approach

Double-scale numerical methods constitute an effective tool for simultaneously representing the complex nature of geomaterials and treating real-scale engineering problems such as a tunnel excavation or a pressuremetre at a reasonable numerical cost. This paper presents an approach coupling discrete elements (DEM) at the microscale with finite elements (FEM) at the macroscale. In this approach, a DEM-based numerical constitutive law is embedded into a standard FEM formulation. In this regard, an exhaustive discussion is presented on how a 2D/3D granular assembly can be used to generate, step by step along the overall computation process, a consistent Numerically Homogenised Law. The paper also focuses on some recent developments including a comprehensive discussion of the efficiency of Newton-like operators, the introduction of a regularisation technique at the macroscale by means of a second gradient framework, and the development of parallelisation techniques to alleviate the computational cost of the proposed approach. Some real-scale problems taking into account the material spatial variability are illustrated, proving the numerical efficiency of the proposed approach and the benefit of a particle-based strategy.     

Volcanic tsunami: a review of source mechanisms, past events and hazards in Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Papua New Guinea)

Southeast Asia has had both volcanic tsunamis and possesses some of the most densely populated, economically important and rapidly developing coastlines in the world. This contribution provides a review of volcanic tsunami hazard in Southeast Asia. Source mechanisms of tsunami related to eruptive and gravitational processes are presented, together with a history of past events in the region. A review of available data shows that many volcanoes are potentially tsunamigenic and present often neglected hazard to the rapidly developing coasts of the region. We highlight crucial volcanic provinces in Indonesia, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea and propose strategies for facing future events.     

Plio-Quaternary thin-skinned tectonics along the crustal front flexure of the southern Central Andes: a record of the regional stress regime or of local tectonic-driven gravitational processes?

We present here a record of Plio-Pleistocene deformations above the flexural front of the southern Central Andes of Argentina. We combine a seismic profile with structural and geomorphological observations to show that thin-skinned extension located on top of the crustal front flexure is coeval with thin-skinned shortening at the toe of the topographic bulge. The seismic line shows that a flat zone with no internal deformation separates the stretched and shortened domains. Such features are usually interpreted as the result of strike-slip faulting along basement faults, or tangential longitudinal strain folding in the soft sedimentary cover above crustal bending. We propose an alternative linking extension at the apex of the crustal anticline, to basal contraction by the downslope translation of a rigid thin nappe of sediments (30 × 30 km² in area) above evaporites at a depth of 700–900 m. The size of such a process is unusually large onshore (630–810 km³) but mimics the gravity gliding observed in deltas and passive margins. Since this process disconnects zones with a shallow stress field from deeper crustal levels, it could allow extension above a compressive deformation front and should not be interpreted merely as a record of the crustal stress regime. Large-scale gravity gliding of the cover down the slope of a structural high could also explain some of the extension observed in mountain hinterlands.     

Centrifuge model test study on pile reinforcement behavior of cohesive soil slopes under earthquake conditions

In this study, dynamic centrifuge model tests were conducted to investigate the dynamic response of cohesive soil slopes with the use of stabilizing piles during an earthquake. The behavior of the pile reinforcement was analyzed based on the obtained deformation over the entire slope through image-based measurement, and the behavior of the slope was compared to that of an unreinforced slope. The piles significantly increased the stability of the slope and reduced its deformation during an earthquake. The bending moment of the piles exhibited a nearly triangular distribution due to the earthquake. The acceleration response of the slope increased with increasing elevation, and the displacement accumulated apparently irreversibly over the course of the earthquake. The piles significantly affected the deformation of the slope in a certain area, the boundary of which was defined using a continuous surface. A strain analysis of the slope demonstrated that the piles had a significant effect on the reduction in the deformation of the slope in their vicinities, and this effect expanded upward along the slope and arrested the possible slip surface that would have occurred in an unreinforced slope. Several influencing factors were simulated in the tests, and observation of these factors demonstrated that the dynamic response of the pile-reinforced slope was affected by the pile spacing, pile location, slope gradient, and input earthquake to varying extent.