多分类器联合监督分类方法研究

针对遥感图像监督分类方法适用范围不同且分类机制各有优劣的特点,本文提出将最大似然法与最小距离法结合的监督分类法。对eTM 影像进行分类,结果表明,与单一分类器的分类结果相比,分类器结合的监督分类技术能有效提高遥感图像专题信息提取的精度。     

新一代雷达风廓线与探空风廓线资料相关分析

利用南昌新一代多普勒天气雷达获取的2002～2005年37次（共计614组样本）完整风廓线资料，与同期探空风廓线进行相关分析。结果表明：探空风廓线与雷达风廓线之间具有比较好的相关性。风向相关系数R≥0．6次数占总数78％，其中R≥0．8次数占总数60％。风速相关系数R≥0．6次数占总数81％，其中R≥0．8次数占总数57％。随着高度增加，探空风向与雷达风向的相关度明显降低，风速的相关变化不大。     

使用SVM进行短期气候预测的应用试验

从气象角度介绍了利用SVM方法的预报原理,对西安短期气候预测做了实验,并分析预报结果,得出SVM方法在天气预报领域有一定的使用空间的结论。     

塔城地区近45年气候变化分析

利用1960—2004年气温、降水、初终霜、日照等资料,分析塔城地区气候变化特点。通过分析发现:塔城地区年降水变化不显著;年平均气温以0.46℃/10a的速率变暖,其中冬季变暖最为突出;年平均气温在20世纪60年代中期、60年代末分别发生了一次明显的突变。     

省级上行气象信息传输软件的开发

省级上行气象信息传输软件是基于SCO Unix平台开发的，功能包括气象信息的收集、分类打包和发送。软件投入业务运行后，不但简化了上行报的传输流程，提高了上行报的传输时效和传输可靠性，也方便了市、县发报台站的业务人员，还减轻报务员的劳动强度。     

关于自动站自记降水量滞后问题的处理

1问题的提出随着自动站仪器设备的启用和推广,一些由于仪器原因引起的数据差也明显地表现出来,自动站自记降水量滞后问题就是普遍存在且由于各地的观测员以及测报预审员的理解不同,其处理的方式、方法还没有达成统一。由于降水量的滞后在编     

气象信息网站后台管理技术研究

对当前气象信息网站进行概述,就气象网站后台管理的开发应用从结构和技术上进行了分析.     

Further Study on Identifying Anomalous Large-Scale Rainfall Regimes in Phase Space

Using a 40-yr daily precipitation dataset including 134 stations from 1962 to 2001, the large-scale distribution patterns of precipitation anomalies over East China are investigated in the present paper. In the phase space spanned by the first 8 EOFs generated from the 20-day low-pass filtered data, the six rainfall regimes (RRs) are identified by applying a cluster analysis method, namely, the northeastern China regime, Yellow River regime, Qinling Mountain-Huaihe River regime, Yangtze River with its south regime, South China regime, and rainless regime. Analyses show that the new RRs exhibit good persistence and evident physical sense, and excellently represent both of countrywide and regional features, which also demonstrate the inhomogeneity of multi-dimensional phase space. Furthermore, it is more important that the new RRs can describe intraseasonal dynamic characteristics of large-scale rainfall anomalies, which is the most significant difference between the new RRs and the conventional seasonal mean rainfall patterns. On the other hand, the climatic characteristics of daily distributions of the RRs events, as well as the 40-year panorama of the RRs occurring are also investigated, which further document rationality and objectivity of the RRs with intraseasonal variability, and are likely to present more helpful information for short-term climate prediction, compared with other previous classical rainfall patterns.     

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.     

多普勒天气雷达资料对中尺度模式短时预报的影响

利用中尺度模式ARPS(The Advanced Regional Prediction System)及其资料分析系统ADAS(ARPS Data Analysis System),将国内新一代多普勒雷达(CINRAD)反射率及径向风资料直接用于中尺度数值模拟,通过一次华北地区暴雨过程的模拟对比试验,分析了雷达资料对初始场的改进效果及其对模拟结果的影响,结果表明:(1)利用雷达径向风资料对初始风场进行调整后,自近地面到对流层顶的u,v,w都发生了变化,调整后的初始风场在对流层中层变化最大.(2)利用雷达反射率进行微物理调整和云分析能调整初始场中的云水信息,使得雷达回波附近3 km以下的水汽混合比(qv)增加,4 km以下的雨水混合比(qr)增加,对流层(约10 km以下)的云水混合比(qc)增加,4～9 km的对流层上部云冰混合比(qi)和雪混合比(qs)增加.ADAS通过非绝热初始化调整温度场,从而得到了一个动力和热力上平衡的初始场.(3)模拟的1 h雨量与实况的对比表明,同时利用雷达反射率和径向风改进过的初始场能明显增强3 h内的降水强度和落区预报,改善中尺度数值模式短时定量降水预报.模拟的1 h流场对比分析表明,经雷达径向风调整后,能够在初始场中增加气旋性涡旋等中小尺度风信息,明显减少模式的spin-up时间.(4)通过对雷达径向风和反射率对模式初始场和模拟结果影响的对比分析发现,雷达径向风主要是改进初始风场,而雷达反射率主要是改进初始场中的湿度参数,增加初始场中云水等的含量,调整温度场.通过模拟的6 h降水对比发现,利用雷达径向风调整初始场后,对降水模拟有一定的改进,但效果不甚明显,而雷达反射率资料对定量降水预报改进效果明显,同时使用雷达径向风和反射率资料改进初始场后对降水的模拟效果最明显.