Bemerkungen zu W. Dammann „Untersuchung über Schwankungen der Winterniederschläge in Deutschland”

Zusammenfassung An der Methode wird die physikalische Unwirklichkeit der Zusammenfassung der Monate Januar, Februar, März und November und Dezember des gleichen Kalenderjahres als Winter und die Unterdrückung wesentlicher Zusammenhänge mit dem Sonnenfleckenzyklus durch Bildung übergreifender Fünfjahresmittel bemängelt. Hinsichtlich des Ergebnisses wird die behauptete Ähnlichkeit der erhaltenen Kurven mit der Sonnenfleckenwelle widerlegt.

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Summary It is shown that the practice to define the months of January, February, March and November, December of the same calendar year as winter is not justifiable, from a physical point of view. By using running 5-yearly means important relations to the cycle of sun-spots are suppressed. A proposed similarity of the curves obtained byDammann with the solar cycle is disproved.

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Résumé L'auteur montre que l'hiver défini par la période de janvier à mars et de novembre à decembre de la même année est une irréalité physique et que l'emploi de la moyenne mobile de cinq ans masque le cycle des taches solaires; les courbes obtenues parDammann ne correspondent pas rythme des taches.

     

Earthquake forewarning — A multidisciplinary challenge from the ground up to space

Most destructive earthquakes nucleate at between 5–7 km and about 35–40 km depth. Before earthquakes, rocks are subjected to increasing stress. Not every stress increase leads to rupture. To understand pre-earthquake phenomena we note that igneous and high-grade metamorphic rocks contain defects which, upon stressing, release defect electrons in the oxygen anion sublattice, known as positive holes. These charge carriers are highly mobile, able to flow out of stressed rocks into surrounding unstressed rocks. They form electric currents, which emit electromagnetic radiation, sometimes in pulses, sometimes sustained. The arrival of positive holes at the ground-air interface can lead to air ionization, often exclusively positive. Ionized air rising upward can lead to cloud condensation. The upward flow of positive ions can lead to instabilities in the mesosphere, to mesospheric lightning, to changes in the Total Electron Content (TEC) at the lower edge of the ionosphere, and electric field turbulences. Advances in deciphering the earthquake process can only be achieved in a broadly multidisciplinary spirit.     

Integration of stress testing with graph theory to assess the resilience of urban road networks under seismic hazards

Transportation networks daily provide accessibility and crucial services to societies. However, they must also maintain an acceptable level of service to critical infrastructures in the case of disruptions, especially during natural disasters. We have developed a method for assessing the resilience of transportation network topology when exposed to environmental hazards. This approach integrates graph theory with stress testing methodology and involves five basic steps: (1) establishment of a scenario set that covers a range of seismic damage potential in the network, (2) assessment of resilience using various graph-based metrics, (3) topology-based simulations, (4) evaluation of changes in graph-based metrics, and (5) examination of resilience in terms of spatial distribution of critical nodes and the entire network topology. Our case study was from the city of Kathmandu in Nepal, where the earthquake on April 25, 2015, followed by a major aftershock on May 12, 2015, led to numerous casualties and caused significant damage. Therefore, it is a good example for demonstrating and validating the developed methodology. The results presented here indicate that the proposed approach is quite efficient and accurate in assisting stakeholders when evaluating the resilience of transportation networks based on their topology.     

Accounting for site effect in probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard for Romania and Bucharest: a case of deep seismicity in Vrancea zone

The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.     

Comparison of GOCE-GPS gravity fields derived by different approaches

Several techniques have been proposed to exploit GNSS-derived kinematic orbit information for the determination of long-wavelength gravity field features. These methods include the (i) celestial mechanics approach, (ii) short-arc approach, (iii) point-wise acceleration approach, (iv) averaged acceleration approach, and (v) energy balance approach. Although there is a general consensus that—except for energy balance—these methods theoretically provide equivalent results, real data gravity field solutions from kinematic orbit analysis have never been evaluated against each other within a consistent data processing environment. This contribution strives to close this gap. Target consistency criteria for our study are the input data sets, period of investigation, spherical harmonic resolution, a priori gravity field information, etc. We compare GOCE gravity field estimates based on the aforementioned approaches as computed at the Graz University of Technology, the University of Bern, the University of Stuttgart/Austrian Academy of Sciences, and by RHEA Systems for the European Space Agency. The involved research groups complied with most of the consistency criterions. Deviations only occur where technical unfeasibility exists. Performance measures include formal errors, differences with respect to a state-of-the-art GRACE gravity field, (cumulative) geoid height differences, and SLR residuals from precise orbit determination of geodetic satellites. We found that for the approaches (i) to (iv), the cumulative geoid height differences at spherical harmonic degree 100 differ by only \({\approx }10~\%\) ; in the absence of the polar data gap, SLR residuals agree by \({\approx }96~\%\) . From our investigations, we conclude that real data analysis results are in agreement with the theoretical considerations concerning the (relative) performance of the different approaches.     

Influence of ground-motion correlation on probabilistic assessments of seismic hazard and loss: sensitivity analysis

Recent studies have shown that the proper treatment of ground-motion variability and, particularly, the correlation of ground motion are essential for the estimation of the seismic hazard, damage and loss for distributed portfolios. In this work we compared the effects of variations in the between-earthquake correlation and in the site-to-site correlation on probabilistic estimations of seismic damage and loss for the extended objects (hypothetical portfolio) and critical elements (e.g. bridges) of a network. Taiwan Island has been chosen as a test case for this study because of relatively high seismicity and previous experience in earthquake hazard modelling. The hazard and loss estimations were performed using Monte Carlo approach on the basis of stochastic catalogues and random ground-motion fields. We showed that the influence of correlation on parameters of seismic hazard, characteristics of loss distribution and the probability of damage depend, on one hand, on level of hazard and probability level of interest (return period) and, on the other hand, the relative influence of each type of correlation is not equal.     

Integrating structural geology and petroleum systems modeling – A pilot project from Bolivia's fold and thrust belt

For the first time, a new approach to petroleum systems analysis is presented which allows full integration of tectonic and palinspastic restoration with three-dimensional (3D), PVT-controlled, multi-component, three-phase petroleum migration analysis through time. A systematic modeling study has been applied to a study area dominated by fold and thrust belts located in the Sub Andean orogeny near Tarija, Bolivia. The project has been performed with a special focus on the simulation technique and on the correct distribution of temperature, source-rock maturity and pressure development through time with reference to its input data. This is the first pilot project presenting a 3D numerical model in a compressional structural regime to which the basin modeling approach has been applied to explain the observed distribution of temperature, pressure, maturity and petroleum accumulations in general.     

Solar Eclipses and the Surface Properties of Water

Earth, Moon, and Planets - During four solar eclipse events (two annular, one total and one partial) a correlation was observed between a change in water surface tension and the magnitude of the...