Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: lessons learnt from multiple applications

Abstract

The Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients and erosion. It was developed for impact assessment at the river basin scale. SWIM is coupled to GIS and has modest data requirements. During the last decade SWIM was extensively tested in mesoscale and large catchments for hydrological processes (discharge, groundwater), nutrients, extreme events (floods and low flows), crop yield and erosion. Several modules were developed further (wetlands and snow dynamics) or introduced (glaciers, reservoirs). After validation, SWIM can be applied for impact assessment. Four exemplary studies are presented here, and several questions important to the impact modelling community are discussed. For which processes and areas can the model be used? Where are the limits in model application? How to apply the model in data-poor situations or in ungauged basins? How to use the model in basins subject to strong anthropogenic pressure?

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor C. Perrin     

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 10¹–10² km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.     

Mammoth tooth enamel growth rates inferred from stable isotope analysis and histology

Mammoth (Mammuthus sp.) teeth are relatively abundant in Quaternary deposits from Eurasia and North America, and their isotopic compositions can be used to reconstruct past seasonal patterns in precipitation, diet, and migration. Strategies for collecting and interpreting such data, however, are strongly dependent on growth rates, which can vary among species, individuals, and within teeth. In this study, we use histological and isotopic measurements to determine enamel growth rates for a Columbian mammoth (Mammuthus columbi) tooth in two directions. Using histology, the growth rate through the enamel thickness (ET; perpendicular to the height of the tooth) is estimated at 0.8 to 1.5 mm/yr. Isotopic sampling through the innermost 0.36 mm of the ET recovered less than half a period of variation (i.e., half an inferred year of growth), which is consistent with the histological estimate for ET growth rate. A combination of histological and isotopic measurements suggests that the enamel extension rate (growth in the height of the tooth) is 13–14 mm/yr. Knowledge of enamel growth rates should improve the design and interpretation of future isotopic studies of mammoth teeth. The combination of histological and isotopic measurements may also prove useful in determining growth rates for other extinct taxa.     

Monazite CHIME/EPMA dating of Erinpura granitoid deformation: Implications for Neoproterozoic tectono-thermal evolution of NW India

The in-situ “chemical” Th–U–Pb dating of monazite with the electron microprobe is used to unravel the Neoproterozoic tectono-thermal history of the “Erinpura Granite” terrane in the foreland of the Delhi Fold Belt (DFB) in the NW Indian craton. These granitoids are variably deformed and show effects of shearing activity. Monazites from the Erinpura granitoids recorded two main events; (1) protolith crystallization at 863 ± 23 Ma and (2) recrystallization and formation of new Th-poor monazite at 775 ± 26 Ma during shear overprint. Some components of the Erinpura granitoids, such as the Siyawa Granite and granites exposed near Sirohi town, show evidence of migmatization. This migmatization event is documented by anatexis and associated monazite crystallization at 779 ± 16 Ma. The age data indicate an overlap in timing between anatectic event and ductile shear deformation. The end of the tectono-thermal event in the Sirohi area is constrained by a 736 ± 6 Ma Ar–Ar muscovite age data from the ductile shear zone.     

HP–UHP metamorphism as an indicator of slab dip variations in the Alpine arc

HP/UHP and LT metamorphic units that commonly occur in the inner parts of mountain belts result from the subduction of continental and oceanic material, most often exhumed prior to continental collision. The prograde pressure–temperature history of HP–UHP rocks strongly depends on the convergence rate and on the subduction zone geometry. The maximum pressure recorded provides a proxy for the depth of shearing off and stacking of HP metamorphic nappes. A 2-D thermal model of continental subduction at lithospheric scale is used to compute the length and pressure peak of detached HP metamorphic units as a function of the slab dip angle and the convergence rate. Model results are applied to the metamorphic nappe pile of the inner Alps. A mean convergence rate of 1 cm/year during the subduction of the Briançonnais terrane is indicated by the paleogeographic reconstructions between 46 and 38 Ma. On this basis, the available petrological data and lengths of metamorphic units are used to compute the variations of the slab dip angle. The slab dip angle is shown to increase, from the northeast to the southwest, along the Alpine arc with estimated values of 20° for Suretta, 30–45° for Monte Rosa and Gran Paradiso, and 60° for Dora Maira. From Eocene to Oligocene times, the increase in slab dip angle is controlled by changes of buoyancy, due to the spatial configuration of the Valaisan trough and the incoming of crustal material within the subduction zone.     

Nutrient Inputs, Phytoplankton Response, and CO2 Variations in a Semi-Enclosed Subtropical Embayment, Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii

The marine shelf areas in subtropical and tropical regions represent only 35% of the total shelf areas globally, but receive a disproportionately large amount of water (65%) and sediment (58%) discharges that enter such environments. Small rivers and/or streams that drain the mountainous areas in these climatic zones deliver the majority of the sediment and nutrient inputs to these narrow shelf environments; such inputs often occur as discrete, episodic introductions associated with storm events. To gain insight into the linked biogeochemical behavior of subtropical/tropical mountainous watershed-coastal ocean ecosystems, this work describes the use of a buoy system to monitor autonomously water quality responses to land-derived nutrient inputs and physical forcing associated with local storm events in the coastal ocean of southern Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii, USA. The data represent 2.5 years of near-real time observations at a fixed station, collected concurrently with spatially distributed synoptic sampling over larger sections of Kaneohe Bay. Storm events cause most of the fluvial nutrient, particulate, and dissolved organic carbon inputs to Kaneohe Bay. Nutrient loadings from direct rainfall and/or terrestrial runoff produce an immediate increase in the N:P ratio of bay waters up to values of 48 and drive phytoplankton biomass growth. Rapid uptake of such nutrient subsidies by phytoplankton causes rapid declines of N levels, return to N-limited conditions, and subsequent decline of phytoplankton biomass over timescales ranging from a few days to several weeks, depending on conditions and proximity to the sources of runoff. The enhanced productivity may promote the drawing down of pCO₂ and lowering of surface water column carbonate saturation states, and in some events, a temporary shift from N to P limitation. The productivity-driven CO₂ drawdown may temporarily lead to air-to-sea transfer of atmospheric CO₂ in a system that is on an annual basis a source of CO₂ to the atmosphere due to calcification and perhaps heterotrophy. Storms may also strongly affect proximal coastal zone pCO₂ and hence carbonate saturation state due to river runoff flushing out high pCO₂ soil and ground waters. Mixing of the CO₂-charged water with seawater causes a salting out effect that releases CO₂ to the atmosphere. Many subtropical and tropical systems throughout the Pacific region are similar to Kaneohe Bay, and our work provides an important indication of the variability and range of CO₂ dynamics that are likely to exist elsewhere. Such variability must be taken into account in any analysis of the direction and magnitude of the air?Csea CO₂ exchange for the integrated coastal ocean, proximal and distal. It cannot be overemphasized that this research illustrates several examples of how high frequency sampling by a moored autonomous system can provide details about ecosystem responses to stochastic atmospheric forcing that are commonly missed by traditional synoptic observational approaches. Finally, the work exemplifies the utility of combining synoptic sampling and real-time autonomous observations to elucidate the biogeochemical and physical responses of coastal subtropical/tropical coral reef ecosystems to climatic perturbations.     

Clues from Current High CO2 Environments on the Effects of Ocean Acidification on CaCO3 Preservation

Acidification of surface seawater owing to anthropogenic activities has raised serious concerns on its consequences for marine calcifying organisms and ecosystems. To acquire knowledge concerning the future consequences of ocean acidification (OA), researchers have relied on incubation experiments with organisms exposed to future seawater conditions, numerical models, evidence from the geological record, and recently, observations from aquatic environments exposed to naturally high CO₂ and low pH, e.g., owing to volcanic CO₂ vents, upwelling, and groundwater input. In the present study, we briefly evaluate the distribution of dissolved CO₂–carbonic acid parameters at (1) two locations in the Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean as a function of depth, (2) a mangrove environment in Bermuda, (3) a seasonally stratified body of water in a semi-enclosed sound in Bermuda, and (4) in temporarily isolated tide pools in Southern California. We demonstrate that current in situ conditions of seawater pCO₂, pH, and CaCO₃ saturation state (Ω) in these environments are similar or even exceed the anticipated changes to these parameters in the open ocean over the next century as a result of OA. The observed differences between the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans with respect to seawater CO₂–carbonic acid chemistry, preservation of CaCO₃ minerals, and the occurrence and distribution of deep-sea marine calcifiers, support the hypothesized negative effects of OA on the production and preservation of CaCO₃ in surface seawater. Clues provided from shallow near-shore environments in Bermuda and Southern California support these predictions, but also highlight that many marine calcifiers already experience relatively high seawater pCO₂ and low pH conditions.     

Tectonic influences on ground water quality: insight from complementary methods

A study using multiple techniques provided insight into tectonic influences on ground water systems; the results can help to understand ground water systems in the tectonically active western United States and other parts of the world. Ground water in the San Bernardino Valley (Arizona, United States and Sonora, Mexico) is the main source of water for domestic use, cattle ranching (the primary industry), and the preservation of threatened and endangered species. To improve the understanding of ground water occurrence, movement, and sustainability, an investigation was conducted using a number of complementary methods, including major ion geochemistry, isotope hydrology, analysis of gases dissolved in ground water, aquifer testing, geophysics, and an examination of surface and subsurface geology. By combining information from multiple lines of investigation, a more complete picture of the basin hydrogeology was assembled than would have been possible using fewer methods. The results show that the hydrogeology of the San Bernardino Valley is markedly different than that of its four neighboring basins in the United States. The differences include water quality, chemical evolution, storage, and residence time. The differences result from the locally unique geology of the San Bernardino Valley, which is due to the presence of a magmatically active accommodation zone (a zone separating two regions of normal faults with opposite dips). The geological differences and the resultant hydrological differences between the San Bernardino Valley and its neighboring basins may serve as a model for the distinctive nature of chemical evolution of ground water in other basins with locally distinct tectonic histories.     

Faulting, fracturing and in situ stress prediction in the Ahnet Basin, Algeria — a finite element approach

Many low-efficiency hydrocarbon reservoirs are productive largely because effective reservoir permeability is controlled by faults and natural fractures. Accurate and low-cost information on basic fault and fracture properties, orientation in particular, is critical in reducing well costs and increasing well recoveries. This paper describes how we used an advanced numerical modelling technique, the finite element method (FEM), to compute site-specific in situ stresses and rock deformation and to predict fracture attributes as a function of material properties, structural position and tectonic stress. Presented are the numerical results of two-dimensional, plane-strain end-member FEM models of a hydrocarbon-bearing fault-propagation-fold structure. Interpretation of the modelling results remains qualitative because of the intrinsic limitations of numerical modelling; however, it still allows comparisons with (the little available) geological and geophysical data.

In all models, the weak mechanical strength and flow properties of a thick shale layer (the main seal) leads to a decoupling of the structural deformation of the shallower sediments from the underlying sediments and basement, and results in flexural slip across the shale layer. All models predict rock fracturing to initiate at the surface and to expand with depth under increasing horizontal tectonic compression. The stress regime for the formation of new fractures changes from compressional to shear with depth. If pre-existing fractures exist, only (sub)horizontal fractures are predicted to open, thus defining the principal orientation of effective reservoir permeability. In models that do not include a blind thrust fault in the basement, flexural amplification of the initial fold structure generates additional fracturing in the crest of the anticline controlled by the material properties of the rocks. The folding-induced fracturing expands laterally along the stratigraphic boundaries under enhanced tectonic loading. Models incorporating a blind thrust fault correctly predict the formation of secondary syn- and anti-thetic mesoscale faults in the basement and sediments of the hanging wall. Some of these faults cut reservoir and/or seal layers, and thus may influence effective reservoir permeability and affect seal integrity. The predicted faults divide the sediments across the anticline in several compartments with different stress levels and different rock failure (and proximity to failure). These numerical model outcomes can assist classic interpretation of seismic and well bore data in search of fractured and overpressured hydrocarbon reservoirs.     

Constant normal-moveout (CNMO) correction: a technique and test results

We introduce a processing technique which minimizes the 'stretching effects' of conventional NMO correction. Unlike conventional NMO, the technique implies constant normal moveout (CNMO) for a finite time interval of a seismic trace. The benefits of the proposed method include preservation of higher frequencies and reduction of spectral distortions at far offsets. The need for severe muting after the correction is reduced, allowing longer spreads for stack, velocity and AVO analysis. The proposed technique has been tested on model and real data. The method may improve the resolution of CMP stack and AVO attribute analysis. The only assumptions for this stretch-free NMO correction are (i) all time samples of a digital reflected wavelet at a particular offset have the same normal moveout, and (ii) reflection records have an interference nature.